Short Term Forecast

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
401 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-211100-
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-CRAWFORD-FRANKLIN-SEBASTIAN-
PUSHMATAHA-CHOCTAW-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-
TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-WAGONER-
CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-MCINTOSH-SEQUOYAH-PITTSBURG-HASKELL-
LATIMER-LE FLORE-
401 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.NOW...
AT 4 AM...DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MILES AN HOUR.

THROUGH 6 AM...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT LOCATIONS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BRISTOW TO BENTONVILLE
LINE. THE STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL...WINDS TO 40 MILES AN HOUR AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS UNTIL 7 AM
THIS MORNING.

$$

Flash Flood Watch

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1228 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

OKZ054>057-059>061-064-211200-
/O.CON.KTSA.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-130521T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-PAWNEE-TULSA-ROGERS-CREEK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAWHUSKA...BARTLESVILLE...NOWATA...
VINITA...PAWNEE...TULSA...CLAREMORE...BRISTOW
1228 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS
MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
  AREAS...CRAIG...CREEK...NOWATA...OSAGE...PAWNEE...ROGERS...
  TULSA AND WASHINGTON.

* UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING

* ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT MAY INCREASE
  IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE WATCH
  AREA. A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE COUPLED WITH THE
  POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS MAY RESULT IN
  LOCALIZED 2 TO 4 RAIN AMOUNTS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

* THE HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...AS
  WELL AS RAPID RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND SMALL STREAMS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...KEEP INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR
QUICK ACTION IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A WARNING IS
ISSUED.

&&

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1205 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-211000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1205 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013


THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE... REST OF TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA... FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
        ONSET....ONGOING.


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL.
        ONSET...ONGOING.


FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...LIMITED.
        AREA...MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
               ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN.
        RISK...LIMITED.
        AREA...MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
               ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...ONGOING.


DISCUSSION...
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STORMS IN THESE
AREAS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK. OTHER STORMS HAVE
REDEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND MAY PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH. THESE STORMS MAY
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...AND WITH A HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN PLACE WILL POSE A HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING
RISK ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA....NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...ACTIVATION OF
THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK MAY BE REQUIRED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
MAINLY BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND
WILL AGAIN INCLUDE THE THREAT FOR FLOODING. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON
WEDNESDAY...LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.


WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
$$