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4 products issued by NWS for: Welty OK
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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
456 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241130-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
456 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

...HEAVY RAIN IMPACTS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This evening and Tonight.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Along and southeast of Interstate 44.
ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Along and southeast of Interstate 44.
ONSET...Ongoing.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Primarily south of Interstate 40.
ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Widespread rain with scattered thunderstorms will continue
to spread across much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas this evening.  An axis of locally heavy rainfall
is likely southeast of Interstate 44, where additional
amounts of one to two inches are possible this evening
and overnight.  These rains will raise the potential for
localized flash flooding.  Additionally, several larger
river basins are currently in flood stage and this
will continue or worsen into Saturday.
The highest coverage of thunderstorms through tonight
is expected to be south of Interstate 40.  Severe
weather is not likely.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SUNDAY and MONDAY...No Hazards.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms will develop early Saturday morning
across north Texas and spread northeastward through
the day on Saturday.  Widespread rains are again
expected southeast of Interstate 44 and flooding
potential will further increase.  Additionally,
conditions will become more supportive for a
few severe storms across southeast Oklahoma and
west central Arkansas during the early afternoon
hours.  The majority of the showers and thunderstorms
will push further east by Saturday evening, however
any ongoing flooding will continue after the rains
end.
The next storm system is expected to arrive
around the middle of next week which will mark
the return of thunderstorm chances.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

$$




Short Term Forecast

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
647 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-240300-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Crawford-Franklin-Sebastian-
Pushmataha-Choctaw-Osage-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-
Tulsa-Rogers-Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-
Cherokee-Adair-Muskogee-McIntosh-Sequoyah-Pittsburg-Haskell-
Latimer-Le Flore-
Including the cities of Rogers, Bentonville, Berryville,
Eureka Springs, Fayetteville, Springdale, Huntsville, Van Buren,
Ozark, Charleston, Fort Smith, Antlers, Clayton, Hugo, Pawhuska,
Bartlesville, Nowata, Vinita, Miami, Pawnee, Tulsa, Claremore,
Pryor, Grove, Jay, Sapulpa, Okemah, Okmulgee, Wagoner, Tahlequah,
Stilwell, Muskogee, Checotah, Sallisaw, McAlester, Stigler,
Wilburton, and Poteau
647 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

.NOW...

National Weather Service doppler radars indicated rain showers
with isolated embedded thunderstorms moving northeast at around 35
mph across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. The heaviest
rainfall was occurring along and east of Highway 75 and along and
north of Interstate 40.

Through 9:00 PM... rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will
continue to spread northeast across the forecast area with a
gradual weakening of showers and storms expected from west to
east.

Moderate to heavy rainfall is still anticipated, generally along
and south of Interstate 44, and along and north of Interstate 40.
including northeast Oklahoma and extreme northwest Arkansas.
Average hourly rainfall rates from a tenth to a quarter of an
inch, are anticipated. Isolated higher rates will occur from
thunderstorms. Do not attempt drive vehicles into flooded areas
on roadways.



$$




Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Warning
OKC061-091-101-107-111-121-145-240630-
/O.NEW.KTSA.FF.W.0001.180223T2331Z-180224T0630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
531 PM CST FRI FEB 23 2018

The National Weather Service in Tulsa has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Haskell County in southeastern Oklahoma...
  McIntosh County in southeastern Oklahoma...
  Wagoner County in northeastern Oklahoma...
  Central Pittsburg County in southeastern Oklahoma...
  Muskogee County in east central Oklahoma...
  Okmulgee County in northeastern Oklahoma...
  Okfuskee County in east central Oklahoma...

* Until 1230 AM CST Saturday

* At 515 PM CST, Emergency Management reported several county roads
  across Okmulgee County being flooded.  Widespread light to
  moderate rain will continue to spread across the warned area
  through much of the evening hours.  Additional rainfall amounts of
  one half to one inch are likely which will lead to further
  flooding impacts.

* Some locations that may experience flooding include...
  Muskogee...                       Mcalester...
  Okmulgee...                       Wagoner...
  Okemah...                         Eufaula...
  Stigler...                        Okfuskee...
  Coweta...                         Henryetta...
  Fort Gibson...                    Checotah...
  Krebs...                          Haskell...
  Warner...                         Morris...
  Boley...                          Quinton...
  Weleetka...                       Dewar...

Additional rainfall amounts of one half to one inch are possible in
the warned area.

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 212 and
289.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3564 9619 3608 9546 3607 9521 3582 9527
      3581 9513 3553 9513 3541 9498 3520 9492
      3519 9493 3503 9551 3476 9609 3505 9609
      3515 9598 3529 9598 3529 9644 3546 9644
      3545 9655 3539 9654 3540 9655 3546 9662

$$




Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
320 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

...Heavy Rainfall and Flooding Potential This Afternoon thru
Saturday...

.Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall are expected across much of
southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, as well as portions of
east central and northeast Oklahoma this afternoon through
early Saturday afternoon before a cold front pushes through the
region during the mid to late afternoon hours. Soils are becoming
increasingly saturated across the region, due to the rainfall
that has already occurred. Thus, the probability of rainfall
turning to runoff is increased, which could lead to flooding.

OKZ062-065>067-241030-
/O.EXA.KTSA.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-180225T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Mayes-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-
Including the cities of Pryor, Okemah, Okmulgee, and Wagoner
320 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Tulsa has expanded the

* Flood Watch to include portions of east central Oklahoma and
  northeast Oklahoma...including the following counties...in
  east central Oklahoma...Okfuskee. in northeast Oklahoma...
  Mayes...Okmulgee and Wagoner.

* Through Saturday afternoon

* Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches will be common across the
  watch area, with locally higher amounts possible.

* This will likely lead to flooding of some low lying areas.
  Additional rainfall on top of recent rains will increase the
  potential for flash flooding and also some river flooding
  concerns.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A flood watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. Drainage ditches, creeks and other low lying
areas are prone to rises and may flood. Most flood related deaths
occur in automobiles and flooding is the leading cause of weather
related deaths.

&&

$$



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Silver Spring, MD 20910
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