Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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972 FXUS61 KBUF 220826 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 426 AM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered over northern Ontario will maintain dry and chilly weather through the end of the week. Temperatures will then finally climb back to more normal levels by early next week as persistent deep troughing over the Northeast moves off the east coast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure stretches from James Bay into the Mid-West and western Great Lakes while a Nor`easter is southeast of New England this morning. Northwest flow between these two systems will continue today. The moisture field with the Nor`easter is compact and is only resulting in mid-high level clouds across the region this morning. Thinning has occurred overnight resulting in mostly clear conditions across Western NY. Dry conditions are expected today as a shortwave ridge moves overhead. NW flow across the region will likely produce upslope clouds late this morning into the afternoon across the higher terrain. High temperatures will reach the mid to upper 30s and U20s/L30s across the higher terrain. A shortwave trough will drop south across Ontario Province tonight. Cold air advection and increased moisture will add to the northwest, upslope flow and light snow showers will be possible. Best chance will be from Monroe to southern Oswego counties and south across the western Finger Lakes. Less than an inch of accumulation is expected in this area tonight. Temperatures will drop into the 20s and teens at higher elevations. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Closed mid level circulation passing southeast across the area Friday will bring some diurnally driven snow showers and flurries with more coverage expected in favored lake/upslope areas south and east of Lake Ontario. Any snow will have a tough time sticking to the roads during the day due to air and road temperatures above freezing. The mid level system pushes east Friday night, but troughing remains over the northeast CONUS through Saturday, with several pieces of shortwave energy slipping southward. Limited moisture and lift will limit precipitation to snow flurries or a few passing snow showers across central New York. Canadian high pressure will then ridge southward into the region by Saturday night. This will result in dry weather, with some lingering lake enhanced clouds south of Lake Ontario. Temperatures will continue to be below normal with highs averaging in the lower to mid 30s and lows ranging from the teens to mid 20s. The coldest low temperatures will likely be across the Southern Tier valleys and in Lewis county. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Quiet and cool conditions will start this period as a broad and dry area of high pressure presses southward from Canada and across the Eastern Great Lakes region. This surface high will be squeezed between a storm system passing by to our south and east, and a developing storm system over the Plains. Strong subsidence will bring a prolonged period of clear skies starting Sunday afternoon behind a shortwave dropping across northern NY/NE...and persisting through Monday night and into Tuesday. Through the day Tuesday we will see mid and high level clouds build across the region as moisture increases behind the surface high pressure and a shortwave from the Plains approaches. There is still uncertainty to the track of the shortwave, but there will be chances for mainly rain showers Tuesday night and into Wednesday. Additionally, a light southerly flow behind the surface high will bring a taste of early Spring Tuesday and into Wednesday. While we will likely remain cool Monday with little mixing under the surface high, Tuesday and Wednesday should feature afternoons that have temperatures rising to or above normal. This would place maximum temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s for the region. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SCT-BKN cirrus has led to VFR conditions this morning. Northwest flow will continue today. MVFR Cigs are possible late this morning mainly across the higher terrain including KJHW. Overall, VFR conditions expected today. A disturbance will approach the region tonight. Increased moisture and continued upslope, northwest flow will result in snow showers. The best chance will be across KROC late tonight into Friday morning. Reductions in Vsbys are expected in any snow shower activity. Outlook... Friday through Friday night...Mainly VFR. A chance of Lake Effect snow south/southeast of Lake Ontario Thursday night and Friday. Saturday through Monday...VFR. && .MARINE... Moderate north to northeasterly winds across Lake Ontario will gradually diminish overnight and early Thursday. Northwest winds will increase this evening as a disturbance approaches the eastern Great Lakes. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect this evening. Winds and waves will diminish overnight into Friday morning. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Friday for LOZ042-043. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HSK NEAR TERM...HSK SHORT TERM...TMA LONG TERM...TMA AVIATION...HSK MARINE...HSK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.