-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
906
FXUS61 KAKQ 151448
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1048 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will clear the local area this morning. Dry with
seasonable temperatures over the weekend, followed by a very
warm to hot and mainly dry pattern next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1045 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- A few degrees cooler with pleasant humidity today and tonight.

Forecast remains on track late this morning. Surface low
pressure is now well offshore of the northern Mid-Atlantic
coast as 1024+mb high pressure over the upper Great Lakes builds
E-SE through this afternoon. Aloft, there is a trough axis is
offshore of the New England coast with a building upper ridge
from the mid-South to the central gulf coast.

Latest observations indicate that the surface cold front has
pushed offshore of the SE VA/NE NE coast. Breezy NNE winds are
bringing an influx of cooler/drier air will result in a mainly
clear/sunny sky and pleasant afternoon across the region. High
temps range from the mid 80s N to the upper 80s S/SW, while
areas near the coast will see low-mid 80s. Afternoon dew points
mix out into the mid 50s to low 60s. Continued clear and cooler
tonight with lows in the upper 50s NW and low to mid 60s
elsewhere.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- A bit warmer on Sunday but comfortable humidity levels continue.

- Hot conditions return on Monday but humidity remains manageable.

High pressure to the north of the local area will move offshore on
Sunday which will allow winds to transition from NE-E-SE through the
day. An upper ridge strengthens just SW of the region. Some low
level moisture moves in late in the day but afternoon heat indices
should remain close to the actual air temperatures. Highs Sunday
generally in the upper 80s with low 80s for areas closer to the
coast. Not as cool overnight with low temps in the low to mid 60s.

Upper ridge continues to build on Monday with highs rising back into
the low 90s. Onshore wind component (SE) will keep areas near the
coast a few degrees cooler, generally in the mid to upper 80s. Lows
Monday night in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Hot and dry weather returns next week, likely persisting through
  the end of the forecast period.

The aforementioned upper ridge continues to build on Tuesday with H5
heights rising to ~596 dam. Mostly sunny skies will result in highs
in the low to mid 90s Tuesday afternoon as the core of the upper
ridge begins to lift just north of the area. Atypical temperature
pattern will set up with the relative highest temps across the
northern half of the area. Onshore flow will also knock a few
degrees off of afternoon highs near the coast. This scenario will
persist into the mid and late week periods as an inverted upper
trough moves westward under the core of the ridge aloft. Guidance
has backed off on the chance for any precip across the southern half
of the area with this feature. High temps remain in the low/mid 90s
through the week with Friday potentially seeing more widespread mid
90s. Surface dew points are forecast to remain in the 60s which will
keep heat index values only a degree or two above the actual air
temps. Overnight lows stay in the 60s for most of the week but could
approach 70 degrees heading into next weekend as low level moisture
increases.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 640 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 12z TAF period. Satellite
shows clear skies across the region with only a few isolated
clouds in NE NC where the cold front has yet to move offshore.
Winds are N 5-10 kt behind the cold front. Winds become
somewhat gusty today, especially near the coast. Dry and clear
tonight with high pressure building into the region.

Outlook: Winds will average 10 kt or less with VFR conditions
and mostly clear skies Sunday into early next week as high
pressure gradually shifts off the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1045 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- A cold front will cross the waters this morning. Northerly
  winds behind the front are expected to gust to around 20 kt, with
  a 2-3 hour period of 20-25 kt gusts expected on the bay from
  this morning through midday.

- Sub-advisory conditions are expected through the remainder of the
  weekend into early next week.

A Moderate Rip Current Risk Remains in place this afternoon for our
southern beaches from Virginia Beach to the northern Outer
Banks of Currituck, NC.

A cold front has pushed offshore of the local waters late this
morning. Winds have turned to the north behind the front. There
will be a brief surge behind this front with the strongest of
the winds to continue through early afternoon, with gusts to
around 20 kt for the next few hours over most of the waters. On
the bay, where water temps have warmed into the mid- upper
70s, a brief period of 20-25 kt gusts is possible with the weak
cool/dry advection following the FROPA this morning. The latest
guidance has trended upward with wind speeds, and local wind
probabilities for sustained 18 kt winds have increased to 45-60%
on parts of the bay for a few hours (mainly between 7-11 AM).
As such, have issued SCAs for the bay until 17z/1 PM to account
for this. Winds gradually diminish and become NE this afternoon
through tonight, with speeds decreasing to 5-10 kt by midnight.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected on Sunday with E winds around 10 kt
as high pressure builds southward into the Mid-Atlantic states.
Winds become SE and increase to near 15 kt (w/ 15-20 kt gusts
possible) by Sunday evening as the high begins to shift offshore.
Winds are expected to be S-SE at 10-15 kt on Monday and Tuesday as
the high shifts offshore. A few gusts to 20 kt are possible during
the evening on each day.

Seas generally 2-3 ft over the ocean with 1-3 ft waves on the bay
through the period, although seas will briefly build to 4 ft by late
morning behind the cold front. Can`t completely rule out brief 5 ft
seas offshore of the NE NC coast today.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ630>632-634.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...MAM/RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...MAM/RHR
MARINE...ERI