-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
854
FXUS61 KAKQ 250559
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
159 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier weather returns tonight into tomorrow as high pressure
builds into the region. Another cold front approaches the
region later Wednesday and crosses the region Wednesday night
into Thursday, bringing the next chance for showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure builds north of the region for the
later portion of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 730 PM EDT Monday...

The latest analysis indicates sfc low pressure off the coast of
Maine, with the trailing cold front extending SSW off the mid-
Atlantic coast, then weakening in the vicinity of the VA-NC
border. Winds remain light from the S or SE across NE NC, along
with dew pts in the upper 60s to low-mid 70s, while areas over
the northern 1/2 of the CWA have northerly winds of 10 to 20
mph with dew pts mainly in the lower 50s. A spotty light showers
may linger in NE NC through sunset, but it will mainly be dry
with diminishing cloud cover across the south (the sky is
already mainly clear over the north). With the flow aloft from
the NW, the front will continue to push south of the entire
area, with light N-NE winds making it into NE NC overnight. Some
patchy fog in the vicinity of the Dismal swamp will be possible
from about 2am through sunrise but this will be shallow and
localized.

Low temperatures fall back into the low to mid 60s away from
the immediate coast, with upper 50s possible in the typically
cooler rural spots of the piedmont, and upper 60s to lower 70s
along the coast in SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Remaining hot tomorrow, though humidity levels will be
comfortable.

- Heat builds again Wednesday and heat indices may near or exceed
100 F again.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday night, with a few storms potentially being strong or
severe.

Plentiful sunshine and dry conditions are expected for tomorrow with
high pressure over the area. While air temperatures will be in the
lower 90s (upper 80s at the coast), dewpoints will only be in the
50s to lower 60s, making for a more comfortable day.

High pressure slides offshore by Tuesday night. Winds become
southerly Tuesday night which will bring more humid air back into
the region. Lows Tuesday night will range from the upper 60s to
lower 70s. The hot and humid weather returns again for Wednesday
with temperatures rising back into the mid to upper 90s for much of
the area (possibly 100 in a few typically hotter spots). Heat
indices increase to 100-105 F in the afternoon and Heat Advisories
may be needed. Another cold front will approach from the N/NW late
in the day. Guidance is trending more aggressive with shower and
storm potential with this feature, especially in the later afternoon
and evening. The highest coverage will tend to focus over northern
and northeast portions of the area. A few storms could approach
strong or severe levels given moderately strong instability and
increasing wind fields aloft (best chance N). Colorado State machine
learning probabilities also show an increased potential for severe
weather on Wednesday, so this will be something we will need to
watch as we start to get closer in time. For now, SPC only has
northern portions of the area highlighted in a Day 3 Marginal Risk
of severe weather, but would not be shocked to see this expanded
with future updates. Shower/storm chances linger into the overnight
period with temps generally in the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and storms possible with a cold front Thursday.

- Flash drought conditions continuing across most of the area.

The front will drop S Wednesday night into Thursday, focusing the
thunderstorm chances across southern VA and NE NC Thursday
afternoon. Another period of stronger storms will be possible during
the afternoon heating period, but lower shear and wind fields across
the S suggest a lower threat. High temps Thursday generally in the
upper 80s to around 90 F. High pressure will situate N of the area
behind the front Friday, shifting offshore by the weekend. An
isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out Friday across NC or the
far SW Piedmont, but most should stay dry and mostly sunny. Hot
weather is expected for the weekend as an upper-level dome of high
pressure (594+ dm) expands across the S-central and SE CONUS. The
ridge retreats W as a trough drops S of the Great Lakes later Sunday
into Monday, bringing a cold front through the area. Scattered
showers and storms are thus possible Sunday ahead of this front.

Unfortunately, generally low aerial coverage of rainfall through the
extended period suggests continued dry conditions and potential
drought development or expansion.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday...

High pressure is building into the region as of 06z. VFR with a
calm to very light wind. VFR conditions are expected to prevail
today into tonight as high pressure passes over the area and
settles off the Southeast coast by later tonight. The only
exception will be some brief shallow ground fog at ECG early
this morning, but this should be short-lived as drier air
filters in from the NW. The wind is expected to become SSW
5-10kt inland today, and SE 5-10kt along the coast. By tonight
the wind is expected to become SSW 8-12kt.

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday. A
weakening cold front will approach from the NW later Wednesday
aftn and then will drop into the area Wednesday night bringing
a 20-40% chc of showers/tstms. This front will be slow to push
through southern VA and NC NE Thursday with a 30-50% chc of
aftn/early evening showers/tstms. High pressure and dry
conditions return Friday into Saturday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA marine conditions expected tonight into Tuesday.

- Modest southerly flow returns Tuesday evening into Wednesday ahead
of the next cold front.

Low pressure is moving off the coast of Maine this afternoon with a
trailing cold front extending well to the SW into coastal SE VA and
NE NC. Winds behind the front are generally N or NW ~15 kt while
areas to the south and east remain WSW 10-15 kt. Waves in the bay
are around 1 foot with 1-2 ft near the mouth. Seas range from 3-4 ft
N to 2-3 ft for the waters south of Ches Light.

The cold front pushes offshore into this evening as weak high
pressure builds in from the N. Drier air arrives behind the front
but not expecting much in the way of cold advection. By tonight, the
wind becomes NNW 5-10kt for most of the marine area, and 10-15kt
offshore N of Parramore Island. The front washes out in vicinity of
the Carolina coastal plain Tuesday with very weak flow expected
through early-mid aftn Tuesday. High pressure rebuilds offshore by
the middle of the week with sub-SCA southerly flow returning,
generally S to SSW 10-15kt with gusts up to 20kt and strongest late
aftn and evening Tuesday and Wednesday. A brief period of SCA
conditions is possible Tuesday evening in the Ches Bay, especially
from New Point Comfort northward. Seas will mainly be 2-3ft tonight
into Tuesday with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. Seas build to 3-4ft
N midweek and waves in the Bay ~2ft with increasing southerly flow.
4-5 ft seas are possible for a brief period north of Parramore
Island Wednesday afternoon and evening. Another weakening cold front
pushes through the region Thursday into Thursday night. The wind
shifts to NE then E late week and is expected to be at or below 15kt.

Low rip current risk is forecast for all beaches on Tuesday. A
moderate rip risk is possible for the northern beaches on Wednesday
as southerly flow and associated wind waves increase.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...AJB/SW
LONG TERM...AJB/SW
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ/RHR