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619
FXUS61 KAKQ 040759
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
359 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Unsettled weather continues through Thursday with daily chances for
scattered showers and thunderstorms. A cold front pushes through
late Thursday into Thursday night, bringing drier conditions
for Friday into the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Patchy fog develops early this morning.

- Scattered storms are possible this afternoon into this evening
with locally heavy rain possible.

A few light showers will continue to be possible across far S VA and
NE NC over the next couple of hours. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies
continue this morning. Model guidance continues to show the
potential for fog to develop inland early this morning with locally
dense fog possible. Additionally, some of the guidance shows the
potential for marine fog off the MD coast to reach at least into the
vicinity of Ocean City w/ light onshore flow, though confidence in
this scenario is low. Temps as of 320 AM ranged from the mid to
upper 60s with morning lows perhaps a degree or two cooler.

High pressure over New England slides S off the Mid Atlantic coast
today, allowing winds to become E. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough
approaches the area from the W this afternoon into this evening. As
such, scattered storms are expected to develop as early as around
noon (particularly across the MD Eastern Shore) and continue into
the evening. Some greater coverage of storm is possible across far
SE VA/NE NC where likely PoPs have been introduced. Otherwise, PoPs
are generally ~50% across the SW half of the FA with lower PoPs NE
and closer to the coast (apart from the MD Eastern Shore). As the
shortwave trough moves closer to the area tonight, additional
showers and storms may develop and move E overnight. Much like
yesterday, forecast soundings show slow storm motions amidst weak
flow aloft and PWs of 1.4-1.6". As such, WPC has maintained a
marginal ERO for excessive rainfall across much of the area with the
greatest threat for flash flooding in urban areas. A few strong
gusts due to wet microbursts are possible, but the overall severe
threat is low. Otherwise, highs in the mid-upper 80s (upper 80s for
most) and lows in the mid-upper 60s are expected.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered storms are expected Wednesday with additional storms
possible Thursday.

- Locally heavy rain is possible both Wednesday and Thursday.

A series of shortwaves moves through Wed ahead of an upper level low
approaching the Great Lakes. As such, mid level flow increases
somewhat (highest across N portions of the FA) with enough mid level
forcing for scattered storms to develop through the day. Given
multiple shortwaves moving through, confidence in storms has
increased enough to increase PoPs to 60-70% across much of the FA
Wed afternoon into Wed night. Storm motions will be faster than Tue
as storms move NE/E, however, locally heavy rain is still possible
with some localized (mainly urban) instances of flash flooding
possible. As such, WPC has the NW half of the FA in a marginal ERO
for excessive rainfall again on Wed. Additionally, with a bit better
mid level flow, there is a non-zero chance for a severe storm or two
with a few strong storms possible. However, given low confidence on
storms reaching severe level, SPC has maintained a general
thunderstorm risk. Storms will continue to be possible Wed evening,
tapering off from W to E Wed night.

A cold front approaches the area Thu with additional scattered
storms possible ahead of the front Thu afternoon. The best chance is
across SE VA/NE NC where likely PoPs have been introduced
(60-70%). Any storms move offshore by Thu night as drier air
moves into the region behind the front. Much like Wed, a few
strong storms are possible with too low confidence in severe
storms for a severe risk at this time. Highs in the mid-upper
80s Wed and upper 80s to lower 90s Thu expected.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 355 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Drier weather returns Friday into early next week.

Drier weather moves in Fri behind a cold front as dewpoints drop
into the 50s. Aloft, an upper level low moves into the Great Lakes
on Fri, lingering into early next week. It appears the upper level
low is too close to the local area for enough instability for
widespread showers and storms. Instead, only a slight chance for a
few isolated showers/storms exists Sun, Mon, and Tue with dry
weather expected Fri and Sat. Highs in the 80s are expected each
day with lows in the upper 50s to 60s.
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&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday...

A few light showers will continue to be possible across far S VA
and NE NC over the next few hours. However, these showers will
likely remain away from the local terminals. Otherwise, SCT
skies due to a combination of stratus and cirrus will continue
into the morning with primarily VFR CIGs. Model guidance
continues to show the potential for fog to develop inland tonight
into early Tue morning with IFR/MVFR VIS possible. RIC has the
best chance for IFR VIS (~1-2 SM), however, fog will also be
possible at ORF/PHF/SBY. Additionally, some model guidance
suggests that the fog will be accompanied by IFR/LIFR CIGs. This
aspect is less certain so have refrained from introducing IFR
CIGs in the tafs at this time. The fog lifts by ~12z Tue with a
return to VFR conditions under partly sunny skies. CU develop by
late morning into the afternoon with mainly 4000-6000 ft CIGs
(lower with areas of convection). By the afternoon, scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop and may impact any of the
local terminals. Heavy rain with IFR VIS and gusty winds will
be possible in any storms. Storms taper off by the evening with
additional showers or storms possible overnight Tue night. Winds
were light and variable/calm tonight. Expect winds to remain
light on Tue, becoming E 4-8 kt by late morning into the
afternoon as a weak backdoor cold front pushes inland. Winds
return to light and variable Tue night.

Additional afternoon/evening showers/storms are possible
Wednesday and Thursday (with Wednesday likely seeing the
highest coverage of storms). Mainly dry/VFR Friday into
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 335 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions through Wednesday, though becoming breezy late
in the day.

- Marginal SCA conditions possible late Wednesday night into early
Thursday ahead of a cold front.

- Daily chances for showers/thunderstorms through Thursday,
primarily in the afternoons and evenings.


High pressure is centered well offshore this morning. Winds are
light with most obs showing winds out of the west and around 5kt.
Later this morning, a weak backdoor cold front will drop across the
region, turning winds to the east by the afternoon. Winds slightly
increase closer to ~10kt through the evening. Onshore flow continues
overnight at 5-10kt, taking on more of a southerly component by Wed
morning. On Wednesday, the pressure gradient gradually increases
between high pressure offshore and an approaching cold front.
Southerly winds will gradually increase through the day as a result.
Winds will be up to 10-15kt by the afternoon, then 15-20kt late in
the evening. SCAs will likely be needed late Wednesday evening
through Thursday morning with gusts over 20kt expected in the bay
and gusts approaching 25kt over coastal waters. SSW winds diminish
Thursday and gradually turn to the west through Friday.

Early morning buoy obs indicate seas of 1-2ft and waves 1ft or less.
Given light winds, this will remain the case through the day today.
Waves in the bay and lower James increase to ~2ft as winds increase
Wed. As winds continue to increase Wednesday night, seas build to 3-
4ft and waves to 2-3ft. Seas fall back to 2-3ft by Thurs afternoon
and waves down to 1-2ft. Rip current risk is low for all area
beaches today and Wednesday. The risk for northern beaches
(Assateague to Ocean City) increases to moderate for Thursday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 335 AM EDT Monday...

Some shallow / nuisance coastal flooding is possible during the
higher high tide cycles Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning
and again Thursday, mostly for the bay side of the MD Eastern
Shore. Most tidal sites may see very shallow flooding near the
waterfront, but locations in the northern Bay, such as Bishops
Head, could touch minor flood stage as south winds increase
late Wednesday and Thursday. The following high tide cycle
Wednesday night/early Thursday morning may bring similar impacts
as well.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...