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210
FXUS61 KAKQ 041900
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
300 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather continues through Thursday with daily chances for
scattered showers and thunderstorms. A cold front pushes through
late Thursday into Thursday night, bringing drier conditions
for Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Very warm and humid conditions today into this evening. Highs
  well into the 80s to near 90 inland.

- Hit or miss-type scattered showers and storms develop this
  afternoon into this evening. While the severe weather threat
  is generally low, locally heavy rainfall remains possible.

Latest analysis reveals ~1020mb sfc high pressure just off the
northern Mid-Atlantic coast, with a weak backdoor front
approaching from the northeast. Aloft, a shortwave trough
centered over the eastern TN Valley into the western Carolinas
approaches the area from the SW into this evening.

Expect two areas of loosely-organized isolated to widely scattered
showers/T-storms to develop over the next few hours, then
continue into the evening. First, showers have congealed into a
small cluster as of this writing over the SW piedmont counties
along I-85, ahead of the approaching shortwave, and as PW values
creep upwards of 1.7-1.8". Expect additional isolated to widely
scattered convection over the southwestern half of the area,
with greatest coverage over south central VA into interior
northeast NC. Some showers and storms have also begun to fire
up over the eastern shore (west of US-13). Expect that trend to
continue, with additional showers over the eastern shore and
adjacent eastern VA, as the boundary drops across the coastal
lower mid-Atlantic. PoPs are in the 20-40% range, highest
coverage well inland.

Much like yesterday afternoon and night, while areal coverage
of storms wanes with loss of heating, do expect we will see at
least a few showers and storms persist into the late night
hours, focused along the convective outflows and weakening
backdoor boundary advancing farther inland late tonight. 12z/4
CAMs continue to show forecast soundings w/slow storm motions
amidst weak steering flow aloft and PWs of 1.5-1.7". WPC has
maintained a marginal ERO for excessive rainfall across the
southwestern half to third of the area with the greatest threat
for flash flooding in urban/flood-prone areas. A few strong
gusts due to wet microbursts remain possible, but the overall
severe threat remains quite low. Have noted some additional sea
fog with latest obs at OXB and coastal cameras showing a pesky
low cloud deck with onshore flow and weak steering flow which
will likely persist through the late night hours before easing,
if not into Wed morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Remaining warm and humid Wednesday/Thursday.

- Scattered storms are expected Wednesday with additional storms
  possible Thursday afternoon and evening.

- Locally heavy rain is possible both Wednesday and Thursday.

A series of disturbances/MCVs push across the region tomorrow
afternoon into tomorrow night, as an upper level low approaches
the Great Lakes. Resultant increasing mid-level flow should
provide ample forcing for ascent to kick off the first of what
should be a few rounds of showers and storms tomorrow morning,
with additional showers and storms expected to develop throughout
the afternoon and into Wed evening. Flooding concern eases to
some degree with storm motions likely faster than those of
today/tonight. That said, given the expected multiple rounds of
convection, locally heavy rain remains a possibility, again with
main concern in flood prone/urbanized areas. The WPC Excessive
Rainfall Outlook remains in place for the NW half of the area,
coincident with better forcing across the northern third of the
area (US-60 northward). There remains a very low chance for an
isolated severe storm or two, but with kinematics rather weak
given the expected multiple rounds of convection and overall
weak bulk shear, heavy rain/flood potential remains the primary
hazard.

Rain tapers off Wed night, but likely re-fires Thu late
morning/afternoon as the cold front approaches the area. Additional
scattered storms are likely, with the best chance for a few
strong to severe storms across SE VA/NE NC, where likely PoPs
(60-70%) remain in place. Any storms move offshore by Thu night
as drier air moves into the region behind the front. Much like
Wed, a few strong storms are possible across the southeastern
portion of the area Thu aftn and night, with gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall the main hazard. SPC Day 3 Risk remains
in the General Risk category, largely due lingering
uncertainties regarding exact timing. Highs in the mid to upper
80s Wed (highest SE) and upper 80s to lower 90s Thu expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Drier weather returns Friday into early next week, with near
  to below normal temperatures appearing likely over the weekend
  into early next week.

Drier weather moves in Fri behind a cold front as dewpoints drop
into the 50s. Pleasantly cooler and drier Friday night into
Saturday, with dry weather expected. Aloft, an upper level low
moves into the Great Lakes on Fri, lingering into early next
week. Latest GEFS/ECS continue to jostle for when the next
(weak) cold front drops into the area. Either way, it appears
the upper level low is too close to the local area for enough
instability for much in the way of widespread showers and/or
storms on Sunday. Instead, only a slight chance for a few
isolated showers/storms exists late Sun, with slight to low-end
chance PoPs continuing Mon and Tue. Highs mainly in the lower to
middle 80s with lows in the upper 50s to 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions across area terminals persist through this
afternoon. Some localized restrictions in low stratus/sea fog
remain possible along the coast. Additional short-lived flying
restrictions to CIGs/VSBY are possible in isolated afternoon and
evening thunderstorms and may impact any of the local terminals,
though best chances remain mainly at KSBY and W of KRIC. Heavy
rain with IFR VIS and gusty winds will be possible in any storms.
Storms taper off with loss of heating tonight, though additional
isolated showers or storms are possible overnight. Marine fog
pushes inland across coastal terminals late tonight with CIGs
potentially dropping to IFR range into early Wed morning. Winds
remain light this afternoon, as as a weak backdoor cold front
drops NE to SW this afternoon and pushes inland. Winds become
light and variable again tonight.

Outlook: More widespread afternoon/evening showers/storms are
possible Wednesday and Thursday, with Wednesday likely seeing
the highest coverage of storms. Mainly dry Friday into Saturday,
with VFR likely prevailing for much of Friday through Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Gusty southwest winds expected Wednesday night and Thursday.
  Small Craft Advisories are looking likely for the Chesapeake
  Bay during this time.

- Daily chances for showers/storms could cause locally higher winds
  and waves.

- Low rip current Wednesday, trending toward moderate across the
  northern beaches Thursday.

A weak backdoor front is located near the area this afternoon.
Generally, winds are 10 kt or less and variable in direction. This
boundary could spark off isolated shower or storm activity through
this evening, which could cause brief periods of heavy rain and
gusty winds. Otherwise, winds gradually become easterly 5-10 kt for
all of the marine area this evening as the front pushes further
inland. The wind direction shifts SE tonight and then S through most
of Wednesday as the backdoor boundary lifts north as a warm front
and a cold front gradually approaches from the west. Small craft
advisory winds become probable, especially in the Chesapeake Bay,
Wednesday night and Thursday. At this time, winds of 15-20 kt w/
gusts to 25 kt are expected in the bay, with ~20 kt winds possible
in the northern coastal waters. It is a little early to hoist
headlines at this time, however. Also should mention additional
showers/storms are again possible in the aftn and evening both Wed
and Thu. The front crosses the waters Thursday night. Winds will be
sub-SCA Friday in the front`s wake while shifting to the W/NW.
Benign conditions expected through the weekend.

Seas are 1-2 ft and waves 1 ft or less this afternoon and a similar
sea state prevails through Wednesday. With the increased southerly
flow Wed night/Thu, seas will trend up to 3-4 ft (5 ft possible out
20 nm across the nrn waters) and waves in the bay increase to 2-3
ft. 2-3 ft seas prevail Friday through the weekend, with waves 1-2
ft.

The rip risk is low this afternoon and should be low Wednesday for
all beaches. As S winds kick up in the afternoon Wed, could near
moderate-level conditions across the nrn beaches. However, will keep
the forecast low at this time. Moderate looks more likely for the
nrn beaches Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 335 AM EDT Monday...

Some shallow / nuisance coastal flooding is possible during the
higher high tide cycles Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning
and again Thursday, mostly for the bay side of the MD Eastern
Shore. Most tidal sites may see very shallow flooding near the
waterfront, but locations in the northern Bay, such as Bishops
Head, could touch minor flood stage as south winds increase
late Wednesday and Thursday. The following high tide cycle
Wednesday night/early Thursday morning may bring similar impacts
as well.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/RMM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...MAM/RMM
MARINE...SW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...