-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
869
FXUS61 KALY 180221
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1021 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A warm front will move north of the region overnight with
patchy clouds and milder temperatures. The heat and humidity
will increase tomorrow reaching dangerous levels for many areas
across eastern New York and western New England. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon into
the early evening will be common during the week, as a cold
front may bring a more widespread chance of showers and
thunderstorms on Friday with perhaps a brief reduction of the
heat on the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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.UPDATE...As of 1020 PM EDT, convection continues to weaken to
our west as an outflow boundary from this convection crosses
portions of the Mohawk Valley. This did result in a lone shower
across southwestern Fulton County but this shower is quickly
dissipating. Otherwise, it is quiet across the region with just
a few patchy clouds around. Outside of a very localized shower,
dry weather will continue tonight under a partly to mostly clear
sky. Lows will be mainly in the 60s to around 70.

Previous Discussion:
As of 725 PM EDT, as expected, the week started off
warmer and more humid with highs today reaching the 80s with
peak heat indices (feels-like temperatures) in the mid-80s to
lower 90s. The convection approaching from the west associated
with a mid- level short wave is becoming outflow dominant and
does not appear much if any of this activity will reach our
western areas given the recent radar trends and CAMs. As a
result, we have removed the slight chance PoPs. The remainder of
the night will feature partly to mostly clear weather with most
if not all areas remaining dry. Some patchy fog may develop
closer to daybreak given the higher low- level moisture, but
should remain fairly isolated and confined to the typical
locals.

Low and mid level warm advection will continue with the ridging
building in from the south. Lows will be much more milder than
previous nights with upper 50s to lower 60s over the higher
terrain and mid to upper 60s in the valley areas.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
**Heat Advisories continue from noon Tuesday through 8 PM
 Thursday for all of eastern New York and western New England**

Tomorrow...the heat and humidity begin to really ramp up as the
latest NAEFS/GEFS indicate H500/H700 height anomalies of +2 to
+3 STDEVs above normal over eastern NY and western New England.
H850 temps will also increase to +1 to 2+ STDEVS above normal.
Sfc dewpoints will rise into the 60s to around 70F. Max temps
will run close to 15 degrees above normal with a blend of ECM
MOS/NBM values yielding lower to mid 90s below roughly 1000 ft
in elevation and mid 80s to about 90s above it.

Dangerous levels of heat and humidity levels equate to solid
heat advisories in the valleys with heat indices of 95F to 104.
Based on the previous collaboration and abundance of precaution
we will continue them over the southern Dacks, eastern
Catskills and western New England highest terrain though values
will be mainly in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

A weak disturbance coupled with some diurnal heated prompted
at least isolated or a slight chance of thunderstorms to the
forecast from the eastern Catskills, Capital District and
Berkshires north and east.

These isolated showers and thunderstorms should diminish early
in the evening with a balmy night expected. Where any isolated
convection occurs some patchy fog may follow. Lows will be in
the lower/mid 60s to lower 70s. The heat head lines remain up at
night due to the impacts on communities noted in the recent
research studies.

The H500 closed anticyclone settles in over the Mid Atlantic
Region into the Northeast on Wednesday with 597-598 decameter
heights over the forecast areas. H850 temps will be in the +18C
to +21 range. Max temps have only nominally lowered and we are
expect some mid and spotty upper 90s in the major valleys and
80s to 90s over the higher terrain. Heat indices are mainly in
the lower 90s to lower 100s. A few isolated spots may reach 105
degrees in the Capital Region/Upper Hudson River Valley.
Coverage was not widespread enough for an Excessive Heat Watch.
Some pop up isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible
over and near the higher terrain of the southern Adirondacks.
However, the atmosphere is very capped.

Any isolated convection should diminish in the early evening
with a very muggy night expected. Lows will be in the mid 60s to
lower 70s. Heat head lines remain up overnight with the
vulnerable communities.

Thursday could be interesting day with the ridging perhaps
weakening especially north and west of the I-90 corridor. A
weak disturbance or sfc trough could focus some isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. We have
slight to low chance PoPs from the Capital Region...
Berkshires...southern VT and the eastern Catskills north and
west. Instability will be moderate to large with PWATS above
normal. Some locally heavy rain and gusty winds will be possible
with any convection. Max temps at record levels will be
possible for the opening of the Summer Solstice at 450 pm EDT
with lower to upper 90s below 1000 ft in elevations and 80s to
around 90F above it. Heat indices in the lower 90s to 105 will
be possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The extended begins with the forecast area still being impacted
the by the anomalous hot and humid air mass for early summer.
The ridge along the East Coast remains in place with a closed
H500 anticyclone near the Delmarva Region. H500 heights will
continue to be +1 to +3 STDEVs above normal based on the latest
NAEFS. However, the mid level flow begins to flatten and become
more zonal aloft over NY and New England on FRI. A weak cold
front begins to sag close to eastern NY and western New England.
A muggy night with lows in the 60s to lower 70s is expected
after diminishing isolated showers and thunderstorms. Max temps
may still reach the upper 80s to mid 90s in the valleys on FRI
with the warmest temps south and east of the Capital District
over the mid Hudson Valley, southern Taconics and NW CT. Some
upper 70s to mid and upper 80s will be possible over the higher
terrain. The frontal boundary and a weak mid level disturbance
will bring good chances for showers and thunderstorms. We may
need some additional or extended heat advisories from the
Capital District south and east with heat indices in the mid 90s
to around 100F. Later shifts can assess further.

Friday night into Saturday...The weak cold front may stall and lift
back northward as warm front bringing renewed chances for scattered
showers and thunderstorms late Saturday.  High pressure to the north
may briefly build in but the majority of the ensembles and medium
range guidance keeps it unsettled. After lows in the 60s with
perhaps some upper 50s over the Adirondack Park. The ECMWF ensembles
and the latest operational run does show this minor decrease in
temps and humidity heading into the weekend.  Temps were accepted
close to the NBM with mid and upper 80s in the lower elevations with
perhaps some 90F readings in the mid Hudson Valley and 70s to
lower/mid 80s over the higher terrain. Heat indices for most of the
region should fall below 95F but still be in the lower 90s from the
Tri Cities south and east.

Saturday night into early next week...The front lifts back north of
the region a warm front with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms Sat night. However, a stronger short-wave trough and
cold front approaches for late Sunday afternoon into Monday with a
high chance to likely threat for showers and thunderstorms with
better synoptic forcing. Temps may be above normal still on Sunday,
but cool closer to normal by early next week with 70s to lower and
mid 80s.  The heat wave has a good chance of subsiding late in the
weekend into early next week. Relief will be eventually on the
way.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00z/Wed...VFR conditions will continue through much of
the TAF period with mainly some passing mid and high clouds at
times. The exception would be whether or not any fog develops
overnight. KGFL would likely be most favored and included a 6SM
BR in the TAF from 09-12z/Tue to highlight this potential. Will
monitor trends through the night. Some isolated thunderstorms
may develop later in the afternoon on Tuesday but overall
coverage looks low and probability of one impacting a terminal
is too low to include in the TAFs at this time.

Wind will trend light to calm at most TAF sites overnight except
southerly at 5-10 kt at KALB. Wind will then be south to
southwesterly at around 10 kt on Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

Tuesday June 18:
Albany - 97 (1957, 2018)
Glens Falls - 95 (1907)
Poughkeepsie - 94 (2018)

Wednesday June 19:
Albany - 94 (1995)
Glens Falls - 97 (1995)
Poughkeepsie - 92 (1941, 1943, 1993, 2016)

Thursday June 20:
Albany - 97 (1953)
Glens Falls - 97 (1923)
Poughkeepsie - 96 (2012)

Friday June 21:
Albany - 97 (1938)
Glens Falls - 96 (2012)
Poughkeepsie - 97 (1949)

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
     CTZ001-013.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
     NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
     MAZ001-025.
VT...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Rathbun/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Rathbun
CLIMATE...Rathbun