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819
FXUS61 KALY 161435
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1035 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Fathers Day will feature partly to mostly sunny skies
and pleasant weather with high pressure in control. High pressure
shifts east of New England tonight. Hot and humid weather arrives
Monday and continues through most of the week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 1034 am EDT...After a cool start to the morning with
temps min the 30s over the southern Dacks (Old Forge in the NYS
mesonet 34F) temps have risen nicely into the 60s. Some cirrus
continues to move in over the northern half of the forecast area
with high pressure nearby.

The 12Z KALY sounding had a record low PWAT of 0.37" for June
16th based on the SPC website which breaks the record of 0.39".
Expect partly to mostly skies with seasonable temps for Fathers
Day. Winds will be light and variable in direction at 10 mph or
less.

PREV DISCUSSION [0634 AM EDT]...Some thin high clouds today but
not enough to filter the sun. So, strong June sun, with light
winds and highs in the mid 70s to near 80 and around 70 higher
terrain.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Weakening upper impulse tracks along or north of the U.S./Canada
border tonight through Monday. A stray thunderstorm is possible
well north, while a few clouds and some convective debris could
filter the sun at times. Warm advection and steady south winds
will help temperatures reach the mid to upper 80s with around 80
higher terrain and near 90 in some parts of the Hudson Valley.

More warm advection and an increase in humidity Monday night
into Tuesday as strong upper ridging amplifies over the mid
Atlantic and northeastern U.S. The oppressive low level humidity
could contribute to some convective clouds during the afternoon,
maybe even a stray thunderstorm in areas of terrain. There will
be strong capping to prevent anything more that just some
scattered clouds and the potential stray thunderstorm. However,
some spreading of the clouds along the level of capping could be
enough to prevent maximum heating in some areas. Heat indices
will likely exceed 100 degrees where temperatures do reach the
mid to upper 90s and many areas will likely see heat indices
above 95 degrees, and a few areas will likely see heat indices
above 100 degrees.

There will not be much relief at night but with a mostly clear
sky and light winds, temperatures should fall to the upper 60s
to lower 70s by daybreak Wednesday but it may take much of the
night to drop to the morning lows. Some lows in the lower to mid
60s in higher terrain.

There are still some uncertainties in what localized areas will
see Heat Advisory conditions and what areas will see the
Excessive Heat. Sources of guidance/ensembles are showing some
ranges of temperatures and heat indices in areas, and heat
Watches, Warnings and Advisories will likely be needed, possibly
later today, when confidence increases.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Dangerously hot and humid weather is expected to continue Wednesday
and Thursday, before beginning to relent into the weekend. A high
amplitude upper ridge will be centered on a closed 500 hPa high at
nearly 600 dam just to the south of the region. This feature
represents only a +2 to +3 sigma geopotential height anomaly, but
forecast values remain outside the CFSR model climatology for mid to
late June, suggesting ridging of this amplitude has not occurred at
this time of year within the last three decades. 850 hPa forecast
temperatures around 18-22 C lend additional support to afternoon
highs reaching the 80s to low 90s in high terrain and mid to upper
90s at lower elevations each of Wednesday and Thursday, values well
above normal possibly exceeding daily records at climate sites
across the region. There remains a distinct possibility that a few
sites along the Hudson, Mohawk, and Connecticut Rivers may reach the
triple digits each afternoon, a feat Albany has not achieved since
1953, Glens Falls since 1988, and Poughkeepsie since 2011.

Surface dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s will additionally yield
heat indices well into the 90s in high terrain and likely above 100
degrees in valley locales. Overnight temperatures will fail to
provide much relief from the heat, falling to lows in the upper 60s
to low 70s each of Wednesday and Thursday nights, posing a serious
risk for the occurrence of heat-related illness. Isolated afternoon
showers and thunderstorms are possible each day, with temperatures
potentially falling short of expectations if storms are more
widespread. Heat-related alerts including Extreme Heat Watches may
nonetheless need to be considered in upcoming forecast cycles.

By Friday, a system passing to the north across southeastern Canada
will aid in weakening the ridge, resulting in the upper flow
steadily becoming more zonal into the weekend. Temperatures will
therefore trend cooler as conditions aloft return to more typical
values, however relief will not be immediate. Hot and humid
conditions will continue on Friday, with afternoon highs in the
upper 70s to mid 80s in high terrain and upper 80s to upper 90s at
lower elevations, cooling to mid 70s to low 90s across the region on
Saturday. Overnight lows will trend cooler as well, with widespread
60s expected each of Friday and Saturday nights. As the flow aloft
becomes more zonal, chances for diurnal showers and thunderstorms
will increase each day as surface dewpoints remain stubbornly
elevated in the 60s to low 70s. Warm to hot temperatures look to
continue into Sunday as well, albeit nearer to seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...VFR conditions expected throughout the period
at all terminals. Patchy valley fog/mist in the vicinity of GFL will
have dissipate by or shortly after 12Z Sun. Otherwise, high clouds
at 15-25 kft will steadily increase in coverage as a disturbance
passes to the north. Sct low clouds at 3-5 kft may develop late in
the period, after 06-09Z Mon.

Calm to light and variable winds this morning will increase out of
the south to southwest at 4-8 kt after 15-18Z Sun. Light south winds
at 10 kt or less will continue through the remainder of the
period.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

Tuesday June 18:
Albany - 97 (1957, 2018)
Glens Falls - 95 (1907)
Poughkeepsie - 94 (2018)

Wednesday June 19:
Albany - 94 (1995)
Glens Falls - 97 (1995)
Poughkeepsie - 92 (1941, 1943, 1993, 2016)

Thursday June 20:
Albany - 97 (1953)
Glens Falls - 97 (1923)
Poughkeepsie - 96 (2012)

Friday June 21:
Albany - 97 (1938)
Glens Falls - 96 (2012)
Poughkeepsie - 97 (1949)

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS/Wasula
NEAR TERM...NAS/Wasula
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...Picard
AVIATION...Picard
CLIMATE...