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423
FXUS61 KALY 180804
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
404 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Surface high pressure continues today with increasing
clouds as a weather system moves along the Atlantic Coast. This
weather system could bring chances of rain showers into
Thursday. Friday could see some lingering showers in the Mid-
Hudson Valley and Litchfield Hills region, otherwise dry
conditions are in store into this weekend through early next
week with seasonable temperatures.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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To start off this Wednesday morning, fog in valleys have been
observed on Night Fog Satellite imagery and surface observations for
the last few hours and will continue to bring impacts of reduced
visibility through sunrise. Once daylight increases, fog will
diminish for this morning. High pressure is still in place so dry
conditions are forecasted to continue today, with a weather system
moving northward along the Atlantic Coast bringing clouds to our
area tonight. Chances of precipitation across the Mid-Hudson Valley
and Litchfield Hills regions tonight into tomorrow morning continue
to see a drying trend with latest high resolution model guidance, so
decreased probabilities of precipitation through tomorrow morning to
less than 15 percent. For tonight into tomorrow morning, patchy fog
could develop across the Mohawk Valley and the western
Adirondacks. Temperatures today remain on the warm side with
highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Lows tonight into tomorrow
morning in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As our weather system continues to move into our area for Thursday,
mostly cloudy skies continue and probability for rain shower
activity is primarily for the Mid-Hudson Valley and Litchfield Hills
for Thursday. Locations north of Albany are favored by latest high
resolution model guidance to remain dry through this timeframe as
the center of the coastal low pressure system remains off the coast
and will stay to the south of us, bringing chances of precipitation
for locations south and east of Albany Thursday night into Friday.
Forecast confidence is high for locations north of Albany to remain
dry through this timeframe as probabilities for accumulating
rainfall are less than 15% per latest National Blend of Models 4.2
data (NBM).

The low pressure system continues into Friday with chances of
precipitation (of at least a trace) between 15 and 30 percent for
locations south and east of Albany. Locations north and west
continue to see dry conditions but mostly cloudy skies Friday. While
not everyone will see a shower on Friday, at this forecast time the
primary location for a rain shower Friday afternoon and evening is
across the Mid-Hudson Valley and Litchfield Hills into parts of
the Berkshires.


High temperatures on Thursday are forecasted to be in the upper 70s
to low 80s. For Friday, highs in the low to upper 70s. Low
temperatures continue to be in the upper 50s to low 60s across
eastern New York and western New England for this timeframe.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Our stretch of dry and rather tranquil weather continue this weekend
with temperatures trending towards seasonable fall levels just in
time to welcome the first day of autumn on Sunday. Our coastal
disturbance that has meandered off the coast the past few days
continues to slowly drift off the New England coast as a strong area
of high pressure from Quebec builds southward. The incoming high
will act to steer the coastal low further out to sea as a cold front
sinks southward along its leading edge. Given lackluster moisture
and a weak thermal gradient, we maintained a generally dry forecast
for Saturday outside of some slight chance POPs near the I-84
corridor where the coastal low may still support some isolated
showers as it departs. Should moisture and/or forcing along the
incoming cold front increase, we may introduce some increased POPs
for the region on Saturday in future updates. Otherwise, seasonably
warm temperatures expected on Saturday ahead of the front under
partly cloudy skies.

Cooler, breezy, and dry Sunday into Monday as our Canadian high
builds over the Northeast at the sfc while mid-level ridging from
the Midwest expands eastward. North to northeasterly winds usher in
a cooler, fall-like air mass as well with daytime highs in the upper
60s to low 70s and cool overnight lows dropping into the 40s to
around 50 in valley areas.

A warm front attendant to a broad rather flat shortwave trough
displaced well to our west in the Central Plains tracks through the
Northeast on Tuesday; however, between the low moisture and weak
overall forcing, we did not included POPs at this time but will
continue to evaluate and adjust POPs as necessary. Otherwise,
Tuesday looks to trend slightly cooler as our Canadian becomes
wedged over eastern New England, enhancing the easterly fetch off
the Atlantic.

Guidance continues to point to the middle of next week as our next
chance for more widespread rain. A trough from the Midwest tracks
eastward and amplifies, potentially inducing a secondary sfc low
along the leading edge of its low-level jet. Such a feature could
help focus moisture and forcing into a more organized area of rain.
Will continue to monitor over the coming days. This would be
beneficial rain after over two weeks without widespread rainfall.
See weather.gov/media/aly/climate/dryspells.pdf for a list of
Albany`s dry spells (i.e at least 14 consecutive days without
measurable rainfall).
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&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Cirrus clouds continue to expand northward across the terminals
tonight resulting in BKN250 across much of the area. Thinner
cirrus clouds around GFL has supported radiational cooling and
fog formation resulting in MVFR/IFR visibilities. Larger dew
point depression at PSF, POU and especially at ALB will keep
these terminals VFR through much of the overnight; however,
included a TEMPO group for MVFR vis as we near sunrise from 08 -
12 UTC given the longer nights and dew point depressions
already just 1-3 degrees. This should support sufficient time
for cooling that allows temperatures to approach their
respective dew points and support MVFR vis from fog. Given
cirrus deck overhead, did not include IFR vis.

Any fog should dissipate by 12- 13 UTC. Then, VFR conditions
expected at all sites through the end of the TAF period as BKN
to OVC cirrus canopy blankets the terminals today. Some patchy
scattered showers from an incoming coastal low may be within the
vicinity of POU towards the end of the TAF period (03 - 06 UTC)
but only include VCSH given a dry atmospheric sounding.

Light winds (under 5 kts) expected for GFL, ALB, and POU with
winds becoming east-southeast at PSF by 17 - 18 UTC and
sustained around 5-6kts through sunset. Then winds become light
and variable at all sites.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
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&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Webb
NEAR TERM...Webb
SHORT TERM...Webb
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...Speciale