051
AXNT20 KNHC 160459
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jun 16 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0440 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall in Central America and in Mexico:

A Central American Gyre (CAG), which is a broad low level to
middle level cyclonic circulation center that is in Central
America, continues to develop. Widespread deep convective
precipitation, that is going to be driven by the CAG, is expected
this weekend through Friday June 21. Heavy rainfall with this
event is expected along the Pacific Ocean coast of northern
Central America and southern Mexico. This heavy rainfall may cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas
of hilly terrain. Heavy rainfall is also possible in Quintana
Roo, Yucatan, Tabasco, and Veracruz this week. Please, refer to
bulletins and forecasts from your local weather bureau office, and
your local emergency management office, for specific information.
Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are in clusters from
Panama to the Yucatan Peninsula between 80W and 96W in the Isthmus
of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W/22W, from 17N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. This tropical
wave was re-positioned, based on satellite loops, and tropical
wave diagnostics. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is within 210 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 07N
to 13N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W, from 19N southward,
moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. This tropical wave was re-
positioned, based on satellite loops, and tropical wave
diagnostics. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 420 nm to the west of the tropical wave.
Similar precipitation is within 600 nm to the east of the
tropical wave, and within 300 nm to the north of the ITCZ.
Isolated moderate to locally strong also is from 16N to 23N
between 49W and 58W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through SW Senegal, to 12N20W, 08N24W,
to 06N32W. The ITCZ continues from 06N32W, to 05N36W 05N39W 04N42W
04N51W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 04N to
06N between 30W and 42W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about
heavy rainfall in Quintana Roo, Yucatan, Tabasco, and Veracruz
this week.

A north-to-south oriented surface trough is along 88W/91W, from
the NW Yucatan Peninsula to 28N. Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and isolated to widely scattered moderate,
are from 93W eastward. Drier air in subsidence is apparent in
water vapor satellite imagery from 93W westward.

Moderate seas that range from 5 feet to 7 feet are from 26N
southward from 87W eastward. Slight seas are elsewhere in the
Gulf of Mexico. Strong E to SE winds are from 19N to 23N between
90W and 92W off the western Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh to strong E
to SE winds are moving through the Straits of Florida. Mostly
moderate to some fresh cyclonic wind flow is from 25N southward
from 90W westward. Moderate to fresh SE winds are elsewhere from
90W westward. Strong S to SE winds have been from 24N to 26N
between 83W and 87W. Moderate SE winds are in the rest of the
eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface trough extends from the NE Gulf to the eastern Bay of
Campeche this afternoon. A broad low to middle level cyclonic
circulation, a Central American Gyre, has developed across Central
America and southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for a tropical cyclone to develop from this broad area
of low pressure, and a tropical depression could form over the
southwestern Gulf during the middle part of next week, then move
west or west- northwestward. Active convection across the
southeast Gulf, along with increasing winds and building seas, is
expected to shift westward with this system into the middle part
of next week, impacting the south-central and northwest Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about
heavy rainfall in Quintana Roo and Yucatan this week.

The Central American Gyre, that is being described in the SPECIAL
FEATURES section, is pushing the monsoon trough northward into
Central America and the SW Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough is
passing through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, to
northern Nicaragua, to 11N74W in Colombia. Precipitation:
numerous strong is in Colombia and Venezuela from 08N to 11N
between 70W and 74W. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong
is from 12N to 15N between 73W and 81W. Widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is elsewhere from 77W westward.

Slight seas are from 70W eastward, and from Nicaragua southward
from 80W westward. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the
Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh SE winds cover much of the area.

A broad low to middle level cyclonic circulation, a Central
American Gyre, has developed over southern Mexico and Central
America. This feature is expected to persist through the middle of
next week. The resultant pattern will produce fresh to strong SE
winds and scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of
the western and northwestern Caribbean through Sun, then shift
across the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico Sun night through Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

One surface trough is along 31N71W, to the eastern coast of
Florida near 28N. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 180 nm to the southeast of the surface
trough. A second surface trough is along 31N63W 24N68W, 16N72W in
the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is elsewhere from 20N northward from 47W westward.

A 1027 mb high pressure center is near 35N28W. A 1028 mb high
pressure center is near 35N38W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind
flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 60W
eastward.

Moderate seas that range from 6 feet to 7 feet are from 16N to 27N
from 30W eastward; from the ITCZ to 25N between 30W and 41W; and
from 11N to 19N between 40W and 52W. Moderate seas that range from
4 feet to 6 feet are in the remainder of the area that is from 52W
eastward. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist east of a trough
reaching from 31N72W to north-central Florida. The trough will
shift eastward and exit the region through early next week, with
active convection continuing ahead of it. Expect fresh E winds
north of 26N and west of 65W by Tue, as high pressure builds north
of the area behind the exiting trough. Low pressure is forecast
to develop near 26N to the east of the Bahamas by Wed, and move
west to west-northwest and into Florida through late Thu.

$$
mt/al