127
AXNT20 KNHC 141814
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Jun 14 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, southern
Florida, and the northwest and central Bahamas:
A persistent surface trough extends southwestward from a low off
the Carolina coast near 34N75W (Invest AL90) across 31N77W,
central Florida and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico to the Yucatan
Peninsula. This feature is advecting ample deep tropical moisture
across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, southern Florida, the
Bahamas and northward. Aided by a broad mid to upper-level trough
that just northwest of the surface trough, scattered heavy
showers and strong thunderstorms will continue for these locations
through this weekend. Anticipate dangerous cloud to surface
lightning, strong gusty winds, rough seas and low visibility.
Mariners transiting these regions should exercise caution. Please
refer to bulletins and forecasts from your local weather forecast
offices for specific local information.

Heavy Rainfall over Central America and Mexico:
A Central American Gyre (CAG) continues to develop. Sporadic
convection capable of producing heavy showers are already
occurring in the region. As the CAG develops further, more
widespread deep convection is expected to develop this weekend
through next Friday, June 21. Combined with persistent moist
onshore flow in the Pacific coast of Chiapas State of Mexico,
Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador and northwestern Nicaragua, very
significant rainfall amounts are expected. With the soil already
saturated in this area, life-threatening flash flood and mudslide
are probable, especially in hilly terrains. Please refer to
bulletins and forecasts from your local weather forecast and
emergency management offices for specific information.

Heavy Rainfall across Costa Rica and Panama:
The same CAG mentioned above will also produce sporadic deep
convection across Costa Rica and Panama today and Saturday.
Periodic heavy downpours can increase the chance of flash flood
and mudslide in hilly terrain, and flooding in low lying areas.
Please refer to your local weather forecast offices for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 40W from 16N southward,
and moving westward near 15 kt. No significant convection is
present as it is moving through a dry and stable environment.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 69W from 15N southward
to northwestern Venezuela and eastern Colombia, and moving
westward near 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are occurring over northwestern Venezuela and eastern Colombia.
This wave is expected to become absorbed into the CAG discussed
in the Special Features section this weekend.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border
Senegal and Gambia, then extends southwestward to near 06N22W. An
ITCZ continues from 06N22W through 05N30W, then resumes from
07N44W to the coastal border of French Guiana and Brazil.
Scattered moderate convection is noted near and south of the
trough from 04N to 10N between 10W and 21W, and near the second
ITCZ segment from 03N to 08N between 47W and the French
Guiana/Brazil coast.

Convergent winds near the eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon
trough is triggering scattered heavy showers and strong
thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Nicaragua, Costa
Rica and Panama.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for information
about the ongoing heavy rainfall and hazardous marine conditions
across the southeastern Gulf and near southern Florida.

A surface trough runs northwestward from the central Yucatan
Peninsula to the southwestern Gulf. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are present at the central Bay of
Campeche and north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate
S to SE winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are noted at the eastern Bay
of Campeche, the southeastern and east-central Gulf. Gentle to
moderate N to NE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of
the Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned trough will gradually weaken
through late today. A Central American Gyre is forecast to
develop over the next couple of days. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for a tropical cyclone to develop from this broad
area of low pressure, and a tropical depression could form over
the southwestern Gulf during the early or middle part of next
week. Active convection, along with increasing winds and building
seas are expected with this system.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for heavy rainfall
across Costa Rica and Panama.

Convergent moist southerly winds are coupling with divergent winds
aloft to produce scattered moderate convection over the northwestern
basin. Moderate to fresh with locally strong E to ESE winds and
seas at 6 to 8 ft are evident at the south-central basin. Gentle E
to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are seen at the eastern and
southwestern basin. Moderate to fresh ESE to SSE winds with seas
of 5 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere within the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible across portions of the western and northwestern Caribbean
over the next few days as a Central American Gyre develops.
Expect increasing winds and building seas over the western
Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras, over the upcoming
weekend as the gyre develops.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for information
about the ongoing heavy rainfall and hazardous marine conditions
for waters near southeastern Florida, and the Bahamas.

Besides the surface trough and inclement weather mentioned in the
Special Features section, interaction between an upper-level low
near 28N49W and two surface troughs near 23N59W and 26N49W is
generating scattered moderate convection from 20N to 28N between
46W and 62W. Otherwise, a broad Atlantic ridge extends
southwestward from a 1024 mb high at the north-central Atlantic to
near the Lesser Antilles. This feature is supporting gentle to
moderate E to SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft north of 20N between
35W and the Florida/Georgia coast, except moderate to fresh with
locally strong S to SW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft north of 28N
between 71W and 76W. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands,
moderate to fresh with locally strong NNE to NE winds and seas at
5 to 8 ft dominate north of 13N between the Africa coast and 35W.
For the tropical Atlantic from the Equator to 20N between 30W and
the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to
ESE winds and seas 4 to 7 ft are found. Gentle to moderate
monsoonal and southerly winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed
moderate swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms persist east of the aforementioned trough reaching
from roughly 31N77W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. Gusty winds,
higher seas and frequent lightning will be possible with this
convective activity. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected
over the western Atlantic ahead of this system through tonight.
The trough will shift to the east of the region through early next
week. Looking ahead, expect fresh E winds west of 70W by late Tue
as high pressure builds north of the area.

$$

Chan