Tropical Weather Discussion
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040 AXNT20 KNHC 102318 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Jun 10 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2220 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall in the NW Caribbean and SE Gulf of Mexico: Abundant tropical moisture surging northward across the western Caribbean, combined with middle to upper-level diffluent flow continues to support scattered showers and thunderstorms across parts of the NW Caribbean, and portions of the SW Caribbean. IN recent hours, clusters of thunderstorms have move from Cuba northward and into the SE Gulf of Mexico. Dangerous lightning, strong gusty winds, rough seas and low visibility are likely ongoing within this convective activity over these areas. This convection will amplify as it shifts across the SE Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Straits through at least Thu. Mariners should exercise caution. Please refer to bulletins and forecasts from your local weather forecast offices for detailed information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 21N, extending from 01N to 17N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 08N between 17.5W and 24W. A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 58W-59W, extending S of 11N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is S of 12N between 54W and 64W. A tropical wave is in the south-central Caribbean Sea along 71W, S of 14N to inland W Venezuela, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No deep convection is evident in the Caribbean waters in association with this wave. A tropical wave in the SW Caribbean Sea is along 82.5W, extending S of 16N across Panama and into E Pacific waters, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from Panama to 20N between 78W and 82W. Wave related moisture and associated convection is surging northward into the SE Gulf of Mexico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11.5N15W and continues southwestward to 08N19W. The ITCZ extends from 07N23W to 04.5N38W and to 08N56W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is behind the eastern-most tropical wave between 16W and 10W and inland across Africa, while scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 08N between 25W and 53W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for information about heavy rainfall in the SE Gulf of Mexico. A weak pressure gradient persists across the Gulf of Mexico, to the south of a frontal boundary that has stalled across the north Gulf states along about 31N. This is resulting in primarily moderate or weaker winds and slight seas. A dry airmass continues to suppress the development of showers and thunderstorms across the basin. However, afternoon convection occurring in small clusters and lines has moved across Cuba and into the far SE Gulf to the south of 25N, and east of 86W. Radar signatures suggest squally weather and strong wind gusts associated with this activity. Light concentration of smoke continue over the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche, due to ongoing agricultural fires, creating hazy conditions. For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient will support mainly gentle to moderate winds most of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh S to SE winds will develop over the E half of the basin toward the end of the week. Northward surging low level moisture out of the NW Caribbean will impact the SE and eastern Gulf for the next few days with periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, hazy conditions due to agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico will continue for at least the next couple of days, reducing visibility to around 3 nm at times, mainly over the SW Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for information about heavy rainfall in the NW Caribbean. A broad subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic extends north of the E Caribbean Sea to the central Bahamas. The combination of stable middle atmospheric conditions and Saharan Air moving south of the ridge is maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions, outside of the active convection across NW and SW Caribbean. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in northern South America results in fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds in the southeast and south- central Caribbean, becoming fresh southeast winds between 72W and the Cayman Islands. Seas are 5-8 ft across central portions and 4-6 ft across E and NW portions. For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the NW Caribbean through Tue as abundant tropical moisture surges across the area. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean through the forecast period, pulsing to locally strong winds at night. Moderate to occasionally fresh SE winds are forecast for the NW Caribbean most of the forecast period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front enters our area near 31N25W then continues southwestward to 24N48W where it begins to dissipate to 21N54W. Scattered moderate convection is found along this front. Broad ridging continues to dominate much of the subtropical Atlantic, sustaining moderate to locally fresh SW winds and seas of 3-5 ft north of 26N and west of 65W. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are also noted across the offshore waters of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and southern Bahamas along with moderate seas to 5 ft. Farther east, moderate to locally fresh NE winds and seas of 4-6 ft are noted N of 15N off the coast of W Africa to 27W. Over the tropical Atlantic, trades are moderate to fresh between 27W and the Lesser Antilles, with seas of 4 to 7 ft. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, surface high pressure and associated ridging will prevail across the region through Thu, then gradually shift northward through the end of the week. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds over the NE Florida offshore waters will continue through Tue night, briefly reaching strong speeds N of 29N between 74W and 80W tonight and Tue evening. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are expected on either side of the ridge, with light to gentle winds along the ridge axis. $$ Stripling