Tropical Weather Discussion
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327 AXNT20 KNHC 100421 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Jun 10 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0415 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall in the NW Caribbean and SW N Atlantic: Abundant tropical moisture surging northward combined with a persistent mid to upper level trough, extending over the NW Bahamas and the NW Caribbean, continues to generate a large area of showers and thunderstorms across parts of the NW Caribbean, and portions of the Bahamas. Dangerous lightning, strong gusty winds, rough seas and low visibility are likely ongoing within this convective activity over these areas, including also Cuba and the Cayman Islands. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured near gale-force winds near the strongest convection. Saturated soils over the Greater Antilles may lead to flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. Mariners should exercise caution as these conditions are forecast to continue through at least mid week in the NW Caribbean, with the heaviest rains likely impacting western Cuba and Florida. Please refer to bulletins and forecasts from your local weather forecast offices for detailed information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has been introduced in the eastern Atlantic along 19W, south of 18N, based on satellite imagery, Hovmoller diagram and wave diagnostic guidance. The wave is moving westward at around 10 kt. No deep convection is noted near the trough axis. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along 51W, south of 12N, and moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are observed near the wave axis. A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean Sea along 68W, south of 13N, and moving westward at 10-15 kt. No deep convection is evident in the Caribbean waters in association with this wave. A tropical wave is in the SW Caribbean Sea along 80W, south of 15N, and moving westward at 5-10 kt. A few showers are evident near the trough axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 07N23W. The ITCZ extends from 07N23W to 05N37W and to 07N50W and then from 07N52W to 09N60W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is present within 120 nm on both sides of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient persists across the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in primarily moderate or weaker winds and slight seas. A dry airmass continues to suppress the development of showers and thunderstorms. However, the storm activity over Cuba and Yucatan is also affecting the nearby waters and the Florida Straits. Medium concentration of smoke continue over the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche, due to ongoing agricultural fires, creating hazy conditions. Observations along the coast of Mexico indicate reduced visibilities of 4 nm or less. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support mainly gentle to moderate winds most of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh S to SE winds will develop over the E half of the basin toward the end of the week. Otherwise, hazy conditions due to agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico will continue for at least the next couple of days, reducing visibility to around 3 nm at times, mainly over the SW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for information about heavy rainfall in the NW Caribbean. Broad subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic extends into the Caribbean Sea, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions outside of the NW and SW Caribbean. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in northern South America result in fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean. This was recently captured by a scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are occurring in the north-central, eastern and NW Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are found in the SW Caribbean. For the forecast, an upper level trough will support scattered showers and thunderstorms across the NW Caribbean through tonight. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean through the forecast period, except locally strong winds pulsing at night. Moderate to occasionally fresh SE winds are forecast for the NW Caribbean most of the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on heavy rainfall over the western Atlantic. A band of multilayer clouds, with embedded showers, extends from the Bahamas eastward across the Atlantic waters from 20N and 30N and all the way to the north-central Atlantic. Strong westerly winds aloft are transporting this cloudiness. Broad ridging continues to dominate much of the tropical Atlantic, sustaining moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 2-4 ft north of 26N and west of 65W, with the highest winds and seas occurring off NE Florida. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are noted south of 20N and west of 35W. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Farther east, moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft are noted from 15N to 27N and east of 25W. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, a ridge of high pressure will prevail roughly along 25N through Thu, then gradually shift northward through the end of the week. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds over the NE Florida offshore waters will continue through Tue night, briefly reaching strong speeds N of 29N between 74W and 80W Mon night and Tue evening. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are expected on either side of the ridge, with light to gentle winds along the ridge axis. $$ Delgado