Tropical Weather Discussion
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390 AXNT20 KNHC 101108 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Jun 10 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall in the NW Caribbean and SE Gulf of Mexico: Abundant tropical moisture surging northward combined with mid to upper level diffluent flow continue to generate showers and thunderstorms across parts of the NW Caribbean, and portions of the SW Caribbean. Dangerous lightning, strong gusty winds, rough seas and low visibility are likely ongoing within this convective activity over these areas, including the offshore waters of E Honduras and Nicaragua. This convection will amplify while it shifts towards the SE Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Straits through at least Thu. Mariners should exercise caution. Please refer to bulletins and forecasts from your local weather forecast offices for detailed information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic extending from 01N to 17N with axis near 20W, moving westward at around 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 08N between 16W and 26W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending S of 11N to inland French Guiana with axis near 53W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 07N to 11N between 49W and 59W. A tropical wave is in the south-central Caribbean Sea S of 12N to inland W Venezuela with axis near 69W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No deep convection is evident in the Caribbean waters in association with this wave. A tropical wave is in the SW Caribbean Sea with axis extending S of 15N across Panama and into E Pac waters near 81W, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 12N to 19N between 79W and 83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 06N23W. The ITCZ extends from 06N23W to 05N40W and to 07N52W and then from 08N54W to 09N61W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 08N between 25W and 49W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient persists across the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in primarily moderate or weaker winds and slight seas. A dry airmass continues to suppress the development of showers and thunderstorms. Medium concentration of smoke continue over the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche, due to ongoing agricultural fires, creating hazy conditions. Observations along the coast of Mexico indicate reduced visibilities of 4 nm or less. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support mainly gentle to moderate winds most of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh S to SE winds will develop over the E half of the basin toward the end of the week. Otherwise, hazy conditions due to agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico will continue for at least the next couple of days, reducing visibility to around 3 nm at times, mainly over the SW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for information about heavy rainfall in the NW Caribbean. Broad subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic extends into the E Caribbean Sea, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions outside of the NW and SW Caribbean. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in northern South America results in fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. Moderate to fresh E to SE breezes and moderate seas are occurring in the north-central, eastern and NW Caribbean. For the forecast, diffluent flow aloft will support scattered showers and thunderstorms across the NW Caribbean through at least Thu. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean through the forecast period, except locally strong winds pulsing at night. Moderate to occasionally fresh SE winds are forecast for the NW Caribbean most of the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad ridging continues to dominate much of the subtropical Atlantic, sustaining moderate to locally fresh SW winds and seas of 3-5 ft north of 27N and west of 65W, with the highest winds and seas occurring off NE Florida. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are also noted across the offhsore waters of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and southern Bahamas along with moderate seas to 5 ft. Farther east, moderate to locally fresh NE winds and seas of 4-6 ft are noted off the coast of W Africa to 27W. Over the tropical Atlantic, trades are moderate to fresh between 25W and the Lesser Antilles. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, surface high pressure and associated ridging will prevail across the region through Thu, then gradually shift northward through the end of the week. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds over the NE Florida offshore waters will continue through Tue night, briefly reaching strong speeds N of 29N between 74W and 80W Mon night and Tue evening. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are expected on either side of the ridge, with light to gentle winds along the ridge axis. $$ Ramos