366
AXNT20 KNHC 182323
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Jun 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone One (PTC One) is centered near 22.1N
92.7W at 18/2100 UTC or 300 nm ESE of La Pesca Mexico, moving N at
5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas
are 15 ft within 330 nm NE and 360 nm NW quadrants. The broad
wind field associated with this disturbance is generating tropical
storm force winds extending outward up to 360 nm of the center
in the northern semicircle. Little convection is being observed
near the center of the system. Latest satellite imagery shows a
150 nm wide area of numerous moderate to strong convection
confined to the Bay of Campeche. An area of increasing numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is over the NW Gulf and
over the western portion of the central Gulf from 24N to 30N
between 90W and 95W. Similar convection shifting northwestward is
seen from 22N to 27N between 85W and 90W. In addition, heavy
rains are impacting portions of southern Mexico and the northern
portions of Central America. Potential Tropical Cyclone One is
expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across
northeast Mexico into South Texas, with maximum totals of 15
inches possible. This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban
flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are
also possible in areas of higher terrain across northeast Mexico.
Swells generated by the disturbance will affect the coast of
Texas and northeastern Mexico through early Thu. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

The system is forecast to turn toward the northwest and west,
with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight and on
Wed. The system is forecast to reach the Gulf coast of Mexico by
Wed.night.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
and the latest Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new tropical wave is introduced to the 18 UTC surface analysis
over the far eastern Atlantic along 17W from 03N to 19N based on
diagnostic guidance, the Hovmeller 5 day diagram of infra-red
imagery, and on the latest presentation of both infra-red and
visible satellite images. The wave is moving westward at about
5-10 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
from 06N to 14N between the coast of Africa and 20W, and from 05N
to 10N between 20W and 25W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W/36W from
03N to 19N, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is embedded in a
dry airmass that is suppressing the shower activity near the axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 70W south of
18N moving westward at 10-15 kt. Isolated showers are seen near
the wave from 13N to 18N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Dakar near 14N17W, and continues southwestward to 10N22W to 09N36W
and to 08N46W. The ITCZ extends from 08N46W to 09N61W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the trough between
44W and 49W and between 51W-54W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features  section for information on
Potential Tropical Cyclone One and its impacts.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One is the main feature over the
basin. Aside from convection described above related to Potential
Tropical Cyclone One, numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is south of 22N between the western tip of Cuba and
the northeast section of the Yucatan Peninsula. Aside from the
area of 35 kt winds, strong to near- gale force winds cover much
of the waters W of 83W, with fresh to strong winds E of 83W. Aside
from the area of 12 ft or greater seas discussed above, seas of
8-12 ft cover most of the waters north of 21N and west of 85W,
with seas of 4-7 ft elsewhere. A recent altimeter satellite pass
indicates seas of 12 ft near 25N89W. Buoy 42001 at 25.9N89.7W has
combined seas of 11 ft.

For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone One is near 22.1N
92.7W at 5 PM EDT, and is moving north at 5 kt. Maximum sustained
winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central
pressure is 999 mb. Potential Tropical Cyclone One will maintain
intensity as it moves to near 22.7N 93.9W late tonight, then
intensify slightly as it moves to near 23.0N 95.7W Wed afternoon
with maximum sustained wind speed of 40 kt gusts to 50 kt and
move inland to near 23.3N 97.8W late Wed night with maximum
sustained wind speed of 40 kt gusts to 50 kt. Potential Tropical
Cyclone One will begin to weaken as it continues inland to near
23.3N 100.2W Thu afternoon and dissipating late Thu night into
Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on
Potential Tropical Cyclone One and related impacts.

The broad nature of Potential Tropical Cyclone One is resulting
in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the
northwestern Caribbean and over portions of the central part
of the sea. The activity over the northwestern Caribbean reaches
the Yucatan Channel. The broad wind field around Potential
Tropical Cyclone One is supporting fresh to locally near gale-
force southeast winds in the northwestern Caribbean, especially
west of 81W. Stronger gusts are possible with the strongest
convection. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft. Moderate to locally
fresh easterly winds and seas of 3-6 ft are noted in the south-
central Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate
seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the broad circulation around Potential Tropical
Cyclone One will continue to support fresh to strong SE winds
with scattered showers and thunderstorms across the northwestern
Caribbean through Thu. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades over
the central and E Caribbean will reach moderate to fresh speeds by
midweek and prevail through late Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak surface to low-level trough is analyzed from near 31N76W
to just north of the NW Bahamas. Scattered showers are near the
southern part of the trough, and from 27N to 28N between 76W and
78W. Broken to overcast low and mid-level clouds with embedded
showers and gusty winds are noted west of the aforementioned
trough to inland some sections of northern and central Florida.
Farther east, a stationary front extends from 31N51W to 28N57W,
where it becomes a trough to a 1014 mb low near 27N64W. A trough
extends from the low to just north of the Dominican Republic at
20N69W. Satellite imagery shows numerous showers and thunderstorms
from 20N to 25N between 58W and 67W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are just southeast of the 1014 mb low, and within 90
nm north of the trough between 59W and 63W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are elsewhere north of 25N between 50W and
69W.

Over the far eastern part of the area, a dissipating cold front
extends from 31N09W through the Canary Islands and west-
northwestward to near 31N28W. Fresh to strong northeast to east
winds are north of the cold front along with seas of 6 to 9 ft.

An area of scattered moderate convection is evident from 23N to
29N between 30W and 36W. This activity is being sustained by a
broad upper-level trough that is over this part of the Atlantic.

The remainder of the area is dominated by broad ridging, anchored
by a 1032 mb high pressure system in the far northeastern
Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower
pressures in the northwest Atlantic is maintaining fresh to
locally strong north to northeast winds north of the monsoon
trough to 28N and east of 30W. Seas over the area described are 6
to 8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms persist north of 20N between 50W and 68W in the
vicinity of a stationary front/surface trough/low pres system
analyzed from 31N52W to 27N64W to 20N70W. Environmental conditions
are marginally conducive for some gradual development of this
system during the next few days while it moves westward or west-
northwestward. The system is forecast to approach the coast of the
southeastern United States on Friday. Regardless of development,
fresh to strong winds and rough seas will prevail over the waters
north of 25N through Thu.

$$
Aguirre