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702
FXUS61 KBGM 231945
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
345 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Isolated to scattered showers move through the region this afternoon
lingering into the overnight period. Relatively active pattern
supports shower chances through Thursday. Pattern changes in time
for the weekend with high pressure settling back in with drier
conditions.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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330 PM Update...

A slow moving upper level short wave continues to pass over the
region this afternoon with scattered showers moving across CNY and
NEPA. Once this final batch of showers exits eastwards, light and
spotty showers will linger through the evening and possibly into the
overnight period. Temperatures today are seasonably cool with highs
ranging in the upper 50s to low 60s this afternoon. Blended in the
NBM 10th percentile to bring down forecasted temperatures as
current observations struggle to reach 60 degrees.

Weak upper level ridging briefly builds back into the region on
Tuesday, with a brief break in precipitation expected before the
next system arrives. As the ridge slides eastwards our region gets
placed in a southerly flow pattern. This will advect more moisture
into our region kicking off more showers especially late Tuesday
afternoon through Tuesday night. Although a chance of showers will
still possible before this time frame. Otherwise temperatures will
be relatively comfortable Tuesday afternoon with highs ranging in
the mid to upper 60s. Overnight lows will fall into the 50s across
the region.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
410 AM Update...

An increasingly amplified upper level pattern will take shape
through mid-week as a deep trough cuts off into a closed low
over the mid-Mississippi Valley Tuesday night, while an upper
level ridge axis extends across the east coast. We`ll be in
active and increasingly moist southwesterly flow aloft, with
several embedded disturbances bringing rounds of showers and
isolated thunderstorms. Surface high pressure over New England
will continue to feed drier air in the low levels from the east
and northeast. This will keep precip chances highest across
areas west of I-81 before midnight Tuesday night, but thereafter
the moisture wins out, and high PoPs look to overspread the
area through Wednesday morning.

Showers will become more widely scattered with dry spells early
Wednesday, but will increase towards the afternoon and overnight
hours.

High temperatures will run a few degrees below normal Wednesday,
with highs mostly in the 60s area-wide.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
410 AM Update...

Another complex blocking pattern takes shape for the end of the
week, with our cutoff low over the mid-Mississippi Valley, and
ridging off the southeast U.S. coast expected to determine the
eventual path of a potential tropical cyclone in the Gulf of
Mexico. But upper level ridging over the western U.S. looks to
build across the Upper Midwest, north of the closed low, with
the tropical system eventually phasing with the closed low. Some
showers will be departing the area Thursday, after which the
blocking pattern looks to keep our area dry through the weekend.
Caution is urged given the complex pattern and interactions at
play, but there`s fairly good model agreement in keeping precip
with the tropical system and closed upper low well to our
southwest.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Isolated to scattered rain showers continue to move through the
region this afternoon and evening. As a result MVFR to Fuel Alt
restrictions have expanded over most terminals with possible
IFR ceilings at ELM/BGM. RME/SYR will alternate between VFR and
MVFR ceilings for most of the period.

Model guidance hints at fog formation tonight at ELM/BGM, but
confidence is low at this time, therefore a tempo group was
used. Some isolated showers may linger overnight along with
Fuel Alt restrictions at most sites and IFR restrictions at
ELM. Pessimistic ceilings will persist at most terminals through
the end of the period with exceptions at RME/SYR.

.Outlook...

Monday Night Through Tuesday...Restrictions possible with
showers.

Wednesday through Thursday...Generally, unsettled with VFR
ceilings and occasional flight restrictions possible in passing
showers.

Friday and Saturday... VFR conditions are possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ES
NEAR TERM...ES
SHORT TERM...MPH
LONG TERM...MPH
AVIATION...ES