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797
FXUS64 KBMX 101834
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
134 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 134 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2024

This afternoon.

An upper low is positioned northeast of Maine with a longwave
trough extending from the low southwest over the Ohio and
Tennessee Valley Regions while amplified ridging continues to
build over the Central and Northern Plains. A surface cold front
was located across Southern Pike and Barbour Counties, where
showers and some thunderstorms have recently developed. A few
showers have recently formed over East-Central Russell County as
well where enough moisture remains in the low to mid levels.

Expect mostly sunny skies north with partly to mostly cloudy
skies over the southern counties this afternoon. Dry conditions
will continue across the northern counties with low-end PoPs
generally near the Interstate 20 corridor with Isolated shower and
storm chances generally south of a line form Centreville to
Wedowee through late afternoon while higher PoPs will be confined
across South-Central Pike and Barbour Counties. Winds will be from
the north at 5-10 mph. High temperatures will range from near 80
far northeast in the higher terrain to near 90 far southeast.

Tonight.

Broad ridging will continue to build over much of the Plains
while the longwave trough becomes positioned further to the
northeast with time. Strong and expansive surface high pressure
centered across the Western Great Lakes will build further
southward overnight while the cold front moves south along the
Northern Gulf Coast. Mostly clear skies will be found for all but
the far southern counties where partly cloudy skies may persist
for a longer time. A few lingering showers and a stray storm also
may remain across our far southeast counties through the evening,
followed by a return to dry conditions across the entire area
after midnight. Due to the cooler temperatures and light winds
overnight, some patchy fog may develop near and along river and
lake areas before sunrise on Tuesday morning. Winds will be from
the north at 2-4 mph. Low temperatures will range from the mid 50s
far north to the low 60s far southeast.

Tuesday.

id-level ridging will build further into the region on Tuesday
while the mid-level trough becomes positioned over the East Coast.
The front to our south will become stationary across much of the
Northern Gulf Coast while expansive surface high pressure extends
from the Northeast southwest across the Ohio and Tennessee Valley
Regions through the Mid-South Region. Mostly sunny skies are
forecast areawide with winds from the north at 4-8 mph. High
temperatures will range from the low 80s far northwest to around
90 southeast.

05
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2024

Northwesterly flow aloft and subsidence in the wake of trough
along the East Coast, will reinforce a cool and dry airmass
across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Low PWAT values
and very light northerly winds will promote radiational cooling
with lows ranging from the mid 50s in the north to the lower 60s
in the south on Wednesday morning. Additionally, most of the
forecast area will experience temperatures below 90 degrees on
Wednesday afternoon.

A gradual warming trend will begin thereafter, with widespread
low 90s for highs on Thursday as an upper-level ridge starts to
move in from the west. This ridge will shift eastward toward the
Tennessee Valley on Friday and Saturday, leading to continued hot
and dry conditions.

A disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico appears to be headed toward
the western Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. At this time, the deepest
tropical moisture is expected to remain west of Alabama, but the
arrival of higher PWAT values could result in isolated to
scattered showers and storms on Sunday.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2024

A surface cold front continues to move southeast across the
southern portion of the area. There is a small chance of a few
showers or storms between the northern terminals and the southern
sites with chances great enough at the southern locations to
include tempos between 18z and 22z to define the greatest time
potential for this activity. Beyond 22z, expect a return to
unconditional VFR conditions areawide with dry conditions
prevailing through the end of this cycle.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Afternoon minimum RHs are forecast to remain above critical levels
over the next few days. Overnight RH recovery should be in the
upper 70s to low 90s. 20-foot winds should run at or less than 7
mph over the next few days, northerly today then northeasterly on
Tuesday. Some showers and thunderstorms may occur through this
afternoon across the southern half of the area as the front
finally clears the area. Dry weather is expected from Tuesday
through at least Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Gadsden     55  85  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    57  85  59  88 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  59  86  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  60  88  61  88 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      59  88  62  89 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      62  88  65  89 /  10   0   0  10
Montgomery  62  88  64  89 /  10   0   0  10
Troy        63  89  65  91 /  20   0   0  10
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...05