-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
191
FXUS62 KCAE 250245
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1045 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary is expected to stall near the forecast area
resulting in chances for showers and thunderstorms through the
weekend. Another, more organized system is expected to cross
the eastern US Monday and Tuesday with additional chances for
thunderstorms. Drier weather is expected to return Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across the forecast
area this evening with the strongest convection currently moving
through portions of Fairfield and Richland counties. CAMs
suggest that this activity will wind down during the next few
hours. However, the latest HRRR indicates the potential for
isolated development across our northern counties towards
daybreak. PoPs have been adjusted accordingly with values
decreasing across the remainder of the forecast area. Overnight
lows will be in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday and Saturday Night: An upper shortwave trough over the
region early in the day is expected to slide eastward and deepen
as it moves over the coast. Behind it, northwest flow aloft is
forecast to bring in slightly drier air; however, PWATs are
anticipated to remain above 1.5" through much of the afternoon
and evening as latest guidance indicates the drier air arrives
a bit slower than previous model runs. Upper ridging is also
forecast to begin building over the region, in general, but
shortwave energy moving through the main pattern should be
enough to kick off a round of isolated to scattered
thunderstorms. There remains some question on how much coverage
we`ll see because of a general lack of triggering mechanism in
the area. The potential for severe weather remains on the lower
side, but strong winds would be the main threat with any
stronger cells.

Sunday and Sunday Night: The upper level ridging continues to
strengthen over the region as southerly low-level flow becomes
more established. As a result, moisture begins to increase again
through the day and temperatures rise to the lower to mid 90s,
causing heat indices to approach, or even exceed, 100F in the
afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms are
again possible, though it may be difficult to get much coverage
given the ridge overhead and another lack of triggering
mechanism. The higher chance of activity remains over the
northern portions of the forecast areas. If storms are able to
form, there remains potential for them to become strong to
severe with winds being the primary threat with the stronger
storms. However, the potential for any storms to form has been
on a downward trend.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An upper trough over the central CONUS is forecast to begin
moving towards the region on Monday. An associated frontal
boundary is forecast to move through the area, sparking another
round of showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area.
With cooling heights aloft and a more pronounced triggering
mechanism, the potential for severe weather returns for Monday.
As it looks now, Monday looks to be the highest chance for
severe weather. The trough continues to pass over Tuesday,
bringing another round of showers and storms, but the severe
threat looks low at this point. Drier air is then expected to
move into the region for most of the rest of the period. Rain is
thus not anticipated through the forecast period, but there is
uncertainty between model guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Patchy fog may develop overnight mainly at AGS/DNL with
resulting restrictions. VFR expected by 14z Saturday. Scattered
thunderstorms in the afternoon.

At 03z, A pressure ridge is centered off the coast with weak south-
westerly flow across the area. Scattered convection has
diminished across the area with considerable mid level ceilings
remaining.

The latest guidance at 03z suggests a lower threat for stratus
overnight. However, with lamp continuing to suggest fog at AGS
and DNL and fog developing upstream despite mid level clouds,
went with a period of MVFR conditions at those terminals through
13z. Scattered thunderstorms possible after 18z Saturday as
weak upper level troughs move through the area and air mass
likely moderately unstable.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible at times
through early next week in afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms.
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&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$