-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
717
FXUS63 KDDC 252006
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
306 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...Updated for mesoscale discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected southeast of Dodge
  City Saturday evening. Only one or two storms are expected,
  but localized high end severe weather is possible.

- Strong southwest winds and blowing dust west of US 283
  Saturday afternoon.

- Sunday and Monday will be dry, with rain chances returning
  Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

A dry line was taking shape southwest of Dodge City southward
into the panhandles. Low level moisture is surging northward
from western Oklahoma into southern Kansas. Thunderstorms will
develop with peak heating between 4 and 5 pm, which is a typical
time for convective initiation. Storms will initially be high
based due to the lack of rich moisture. However, as the evening
progresses and low level moisture increases, any storm (or
storms)will become much lower based. A low level jet of around
50 kts will develop by 7 pm, with 0-1 km SRH values increasing
to 150-250 m2/s2 between 7 and 8 pm. Ongoing storms will move
into this environment and could become tornadic during the
evening across Pratt, Stafford, Barber, Comanche and Kiowa
counties, with emphasis on Pratt and Barber. It is uncertain
whether any storms farther north will be tornadic. Very large
hail will accompany these storms due to the veering wind profile
(favorable hodographs).
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

 ...Significant/High-End Severe Weather Possible Southeast of
Dodge City Saturday Evening...

Midday surface analysis showed strong south to southeast winds
across SW KS, gusting near 40 mph, and these are expected to
continue to strengthen this afternoon. Winds will trend more SWly
through the afternoon as a dryline begins to establish over the
eastern zones, east of Dodge City. For this afternoon, increased
winds to the 90%ile of the NBM, and added areas of blowing dust
west of US 283. Some gusts near 50 mph are expected.

Quality moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico is clearly
delayed, with the 60 isodrosotherm just near I-40 (AMA-OKC) as
of late morning. Moisture advection will only increase with time
through 7 pm, focusing into the southeast zones (southeast of
Ashland-Larned line). It is in these southeast zones where
supercell development is expected, as supported by 12z NAM,
RRFS, ARW, HRRR. It is quite possible any convective initiation
in Kansas will wait until about 7 pm, which would allow moisture
several more hours to establish across south central Kansas in
the pre-convective warm sector. Indeed, model consensus from the
NBM surges dewpoints in the 65-68 range across Pratt/Barber
counties. If a discrete supercell can establish and mature in
this vicinity 7-10 pm this evening, high-end tornado/hail
potential will exist in a highly unstable, highly sheared
environment. But this potential will be localized, and focused
southeast of an Ashland-Larned line, and perhaps only Pratt to
Medicine Lodge. Removed all pops west of US 283, and added
severe wording to the grids and forecast for the eastern zones.
Temperatures will soar into the lower to mid 90s by 4 pm,
especially just behind the sharpening dryline.

Clear and quiet but breezy tonight, with strong subsidence
expected behind the surface low moving into central Kansas
around sunrise. As such, SWly winds at sunset will trend NWly
and remain elevated/gusty through sunrise. Sunrise Sunday
temperatures near normal for late May, in the 50s.

Sunday will be sunny, windy and still warm, with sinking air
behind the departing shortwave trough. Increased NWly wind/wind
gust grids to the higher guidance (12z MAV/90%ile NBM)
averaging 20-30 mph. Models show a net cooling of 5-7C at 850 mb
Sunday versus Saturday, but this modest cold advection will
easily be masked by dry NWly downslope compression. Where this
downslope is maximized down the terrain, highs near 90 are
expected in the southeast zones, while areas along I-70 will be
restricted to near 80, with a high near 86 at DDC.

Winds will weaken to light and variable under a clear sky Sunday
night and early Monday, supporting stronger radiational
cooling, and minimum temperatures in the upper 40s and lower
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Memorial Day will feature a beautiful unofficial start to
summer, with a sunny, warm and dry day with light winds. Slowing
rising heights are forecast, east of a slowly building broad
ridge over the Rockies. Expect few if any clouds, and afternoon
temperatures well into the 80s.

Southeast return flow commences Tuesday, allowing moisture from
the Gulf of Mexico to return. From Tuesday through Friday,
medium range model consensus suggests boundary layer moisture
will remain sufficient, with dewpoints at least in the 50s, to
support daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms. This is not a
forecast of 4 days of rain; rather, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected across/near SW KS each day Tuesday
onward. Forcing for ascent appears nebulous Tuesday/Wednesday,
with broad midlevel ridging, and at best weak embedded
shortwaves. Ensemble averages and 12z GFS/ECMWF dig a modestly
strong longwave trough into the northern Rockies on Thursday.
Models suggest open access to the Gulf of Mexico by Thursday,
allowing a strong dryline to establish, with strong southerly
flow up and down the plains, and 60s dewpoints/instability east
of the dryline. Better forcing for support of organized
convection will clearly be north, associated with the northern
jet stream across the northern plains. Still, given 1) a moist
boundary layer, 2) gentle W/SWly midlevel flow/weak shortwaves,
and 3) the fact that late May is the peak of severe climatology
in SW KS, suspect some strong to severe thunderstorms are
probable. Accepted NBM chance category pops for now. There is no
synoptically evident severe weather potential next week, but
rather, mesoscale interactions and effects of prior day
convection/outflows will likely play a bigger role. Hopefully,
over the course of next week, some desperately needed rainfall
will be realized. The US Drought Monitor shows most of SW KS
mired in severe drought once again; DDC has received 23% of its
normal rainfall since March 1st. 12z EPS ensemble members show
the probability of QPF > 0.50 inch through the 4-day period
(Tuesday-Friday) is currently near 30% western zones, 50-60%
central CWA, and 70-80% east of US 283.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1036 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

VFR will continue through this TAF cycle. Intense S/SW winds are
expected at all airports this afternoon through 00z Sun, gusting
35-37 kts. Areas of blowing dust may limit visibility locally
near GCK/LBL/DDC. Any thunderstorms Saturday evening are
expected to remain east of the airports, with no mentions in
this TAF issuance. SW winds will subside some, but remain
elevated and gusty, at sunset, then trend elevated NWly behind a
surface low expected to be in central Kansas at 12z Sun. After
15z Sun, VFR/SKC will continue, with strong NW winds gusting
30-32 kts.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Finch
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner