-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
461
FXUS63 KDDC 230800
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
300 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon
  east of US-283, with all severe hazards possible, but
  development appears unlikely.

- Severe thunderstorms appear more likely Saturday afternoon
  favoring the far eastern zones, with all severe hazards once
  again possible.

- Dry, warm conditions appear likely early next work week.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Early morning water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air
analysis reveal roughly zonal flow is in place atop the High
Plains, with a potent shortwave impulse centered near Boise,
ID. At the surface, lee troughing is spread out across the High
Plains fostering southeasterly winds over southwest KS. As the
upper level impulse begins to eject onto the northern plains
daytime Thursday, a N-S oriented dryline will sharpen and mix
east, reaching near or just east of US-283 by mid-afternoon.
Warming 850-mb temperatures and downsloping winds will support
afternoon temperatures soaring into the low 90s west of the
dryline, while moisture advection ahead of the boundary only
supports highs in the mid/upper 80s. This dryline may also be
the focus of afternoon thunderstorm development, as a few of the
CAMs suggest. However, a modest cap (+9-10C at 700-mb) will
likely keep a lid on things in lieu of adequate synoptic
forcing, and this thinking is reflected in HREF probability of
QPF > 0.1" only in the 10-30% range east of US-283. If a
thunderstorm does break the cap, the CAPE/shear parameter space
will be more than sufficient for severe, with all severe hazards
possible.

Thursday night, the ejecting upper level impulse will push a
cold front southward through the central plains, bringing
another chance for thunderstorms from roughly Wakeeney to
Medicine Lodge. Unfortunately, this also seems unlikely as HREF
probability of QPF > 0.01" is only in the 20-40% range.
Otherwise, winds will flip to northerly behind the front and
usher in noticeably cooler air for Friday with afternoon highs
ranging from the mid 70s north to the low 80s south.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

The subtropical jet wave train reloads quickly as another upper
level trough digs into the western CONUS Friday night, and
begins to eject onto the High Plains daytime Saturday. Once
again, a N-S oriented dryline will sharpen and mix east to
somewhere near US-283 or US-183 by mid-afternoon Saturday, but
this time more synoptic support will exist to help overcome the
modest cap (+9-10C at 700-mb). Thunderstorm development is
therefore much more likely along the dryline amidst an
environment characterized by around 1000 J/Kg of CAPE and 50-60
kts of bulk shear, which are easily sufficient for severe, and
this is echoed by the Storm Prediction Center`s convective
outlook showing an enhanced risk (Level 3 of 5) for severe
thunderstorms across our eastern three counties.

As this wave continues east across the High Plains into the
Midwest on Sunday, another cold front will move through
southwest KS, bringing a second chance for showers and
thunderstorms for the Wakeeney to Medicine Lodge areas as per
ensemble probability of QPF > 0.1" in the 20-40% range.
Otherwise, winds flipping to northwesterly behind the front will
usher in cooler air with afternoon highs ranging from the mid
70s north to mid 80s south.

Early next work week, medium range ensembles suggest upper
level ridging will build across the western CONUS, resulting in
dry conditions as afternoon highs increase from the low/mid 80s
on Monday to the mid/upper 80s on Tuesday. The GEFS does
indicate a return in precipitation chances on Wednesday as weak
vorticity lobes crest the ridge, but disagreement from the ECMWF
EPS, and the fact southwest KS once again finds itself mired in
a drought, cast considerable doubt in this solution.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Ongoing
south-southeast winds aoa 12 kts will increase into the 16-20 kt
range gusting to 26-30 kts during the mid-late morning Thursday,
and continue through around sunset.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Springer
LONG TERM...Springer
AVIATION...Springer