-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
051
FXUS63 KDDC 230034
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
734 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 20-30% chance for strong to severe thunderstorms
  across central and south central Kansas late Thursday afternoon
  and evening.

- Following a cool down Friday, unseasonably warm temperatures
  are expected Saturday.

- Another round of thunderstorms will be possible (30-40% chance)
  late Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 726 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Minor update this evening to introduce small chances for
showers and thunderstorms through 1am west of highway 283 and
mainly west and north of the Garden City area based on the
latest short term model trends. CAMs earlier this evening were
picking up on the convection ahead of an eastward moving upper
level trough over eastern Colorado at 7pm. These storms are
expected to weaken as they approach the Kansas/Colorado border
around sunset given that the atmosphere is more stable this
evening compared to last night. Should an isolated storm or two
hold together after sunset and move into far southwest Kansas it
is expected to dissipate by 1 am west of Highway 283. Lightning
and gusty winds will be the main hazards from any storm that
does make it into Kansas between 9PM and midnight.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

WV imagery indicates a weak upper level shortwave trough transitioning
east through the Upper Midwest. Meanwhile, weak ridging aloft is
moving east through the Northern High Plains. Near the surface, high
pressure is drifting eastward through central Kansas.

Relatively dry conditions are forecast through much of the period as
the SREF indicates weak ridging aloft drifting east through the Central
Plains tonight, giving way to a fairly zonal flow aloft across the
Western High Plains through Thursday. Thunderstorm chances (20-30%)
pick back up late Thursday afternoon as a closed upper low pushes
east through the Northern Rockies into the Dakotas, ushering an
attendant cold front southeastward into western Kansas Thursday night.
Near the surface, low pressure is projected to develop and deepen
across southeast Colorado in response to the approaching system with
a sharpening dryline extending southward into the Texas Panhandle.
Meanwhile, prevailing southerlies will draw ample moisture up into
central and portions of southwest Kansas, increasing instability.
Although a field of westerlies aloft will remain less than robust,
steepening mid-level lapse rates and favorable instability will set
the stage for thunderstorm development late Thursday afternoon into
Thursday evening. The best chance for storms will be across south
central Kansas where the HREF shows a 20-30% probability for 6-hr
QPF exceeding a tenth of an inch by late Thursday evening. A secondary
round of thunderstorms will be possible (30-40% chance) across central
Kansas overnight along and ahead of the aforementioned cold front
pushing through the area.

Near normal temperatures are forecast tonight with the HREF indicating
a 90% probability of temperatures dropping below 55F in west central
Kansas to a 80-90% probability of temperatures falling below 60F in
south central Kansas, so expect widespread lows generally in the 50s(F).
Unseasonably warm temperatures can be expected Thursday with the HREF
painting a 50 to 60% probability of temperatures exceeding 85F in
central Kansas to a 70 to 80% probability of highs exceeding 90F in
extreme southwest Kansas behind an advancing dryline.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Another round of thunderstorms will be possible (30-40% chance)
early in the weekend as medium range ensembles indicate a broad,
but relatively shallow upper level trough swinging east through
the Great Basin Saturday, then onward into the Western High Plains
Saturday night. Once again, lee side cyclogenesis is projected to
initiate across eastern Colorado Saturday afternoon with a sharpening
dryline advancing into southwest Kansas by Sunday evening. Ahead
of the dryline, a prevailing southeasterly upslope flow will enhance
moisture advection into central Kansas and portions of southwest
Kansas, providing sufficient instability. Unlike the system previous,
a more favorable dynamic setup aloft is expected with a +100kt
subtropical jet lifting northeast out of the Desert Southwest through
the Texas Panhandle into southern Kansas/northwest Oklahoma. Thunderstorm
development is expected late Saturday afternoon as H5 vort maxima
begin to cycle northeast out of the approaching trough axis, interacting
with an area of increased forcing/lift along and ahead of the dryline.
The best chance for storm development is expected to be across
central/south central Kansas where the NBM shows a 20-30% probability
of 12-hr QPF exceeding a tenth of an inch by early Sunday morning.

Near normal temperatures are expected Friday as surface high pressure
migrates through the Western High Plains, reinforcing a cooler air
mass with H85 temperatures down around the mid/upper teens(C). The
NBM paints 40 to 50% probability of highs exceeding 75F in west
central/central Kansas to an 80-90% probability of an exceedance
of 75F closer to the Oklahoma border. Much warmer temperatures are
forecast Saturday as a quickly departing surface high and developing
lee side troughing bring southerlies back to western Kansas, helping
push H85 temperatures well up into the mid/upper 20s(C) by afternoon.
NBM probabilities show 10-20% for highs exceeding 90F in central
Kansas to 70-80% of an exceedance of 90F in extreme southwest Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 641 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

South to southeast winds at 10 knots or less will begin to
gradually increase between midnight and 12z thursday as surface
pressures begin to fall along the lee of the Rockies and an
area of high pressure at the surface moves east towards to Mid
Mississippi Valley. These southerly winds will continue to
increase early Thursday morning and by 18z the winds will be
around 20 knots with a few higher gusts possible as stronger
winds in the boundary layer mixes down to the surface. These
increasing south to southeast winds overnight and early Thursday will
draw higher dewpoints back into portions of southwest Kansas
which will result in an increase of low ceilings in the 1000ft
and 2000ft AGL layer between 12z and 15z Thursday based on the
latest BUFR soundings and HREF cloud ceiling probabilities,
mainly in the Liberal and Dodge City areas. The chance for
ceilings to be less 2000ft AGL at these two locations range from
50-70% and the chance for ceilings <1000ft AGL is less than
15%. Patchy fog will also be possible at these two locations
early Thursday morning also. These low clouds and patchy fog
will give way to clearing skies as the stronger winds in the
boundary layer begin to mix down to the surface.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Burgert
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burgert