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831
FXUS63 KDDC 220700
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
200 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Pleasant highs today

- If the cap breaks, severe storms possible Thursday PM

- Seasonal weather and temps thereafter
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Issued at 222 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Today will be very pleasant with highs in the 70s. A dry high pressure
center will prevail across the state bringing us this fabulous weather.
Winds will be light and variable today underneath this high. This
high pressure center will shift off to the east tonight and a light
southerly flow will develop in its wake. Lows tonight will be at
seasonal norms with values in the 50s. The only negative thing about
today and tonight is no moisture. Drought continues.

Attention the turns to Thursday. A split synoptic system with a low
moving across the northern Rockies and another STJ moving across
the southern Rockies will develop upstream of our area. This will
start lee cyclogenesis across the high plains of Colorado. As a result,
WAA will strengthen during the day, as well as moisture advection
with dewpoints in the 50s and 60s returning to the central to
eastern FA as a dryline develops during the day.

Right now the exact position of the dryline is still a little uncertain,
but a general compromise along the Highway 283 corridor looks like
a reasonable approximation for now. 700 hPa temperatures are forecast
to be relatively warm - around 10C as an EML/cap exists across the
FA. The $64,000 question is if this cap will be breakable or not.
Do think the NAM could be too cool in the warm sector with highs
only in the 70s. Other mesoscale models warm the warm sector well
into the 80s. The potential combination of the highs in the 80s and
dewpoints potentially in the mid 60s could lead to 2500 to 3500 J/kg
of CAPE developing east of the dryline. Bulk 0-6 km shear of 40 kt
is forecast, which is adequate for supercells. Forecast skew-t/log-p`s
from some of the meso models shows an environment that would be conducive
to isolated to perhaps widely scattered severe thunderstorms.

The CIPS analog does show several analogs with severe weather reports
across the greater region. On of those analogs - curiously enough
was 24 May 2016. I had a personal connection with this but not only
doing the warnings but also looking out at the NWS window and seeing
tornadoes just west of Dodge City. Obviously, correlation does not
equal causation and vice versus, but, however, that was mildly interesting
that day shows up in the analogs. Of course, this is with the assumption
that supercells develop in the first place. The cap could hold or
the warm sector could not be as warm as we think and not much would
happen.

If the cap is breakable and storms go, then very large hail of 2-4"
is possible if storms go supercell. Damaging winds would be the second
threat. If storms do persist and interact with the eventual LLJ
Thursday evening, then a tornado threat would exist as well. Obviously,
this is all mesoscale details that will need to be hammered out over
the next day. The first failure point is the cap holds and no storms
develop at all. The second failure point is the exact storm mode
type... how much of the activity would be supercells or if there
is any potential for upscale growth and storms deleteriously impacting
each other as for as potential severity is concerned. Stay tuned
with the forecast.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Issued at 222 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

A front will traverse across the state Friday. Drier air will advect
in with a dry northerly flow. There will be less humidity as dewpoints
decrease during the day. Highs will still be pleasant with values
in the 70s to 80s. No storms are expected as this dry air mass prevails
across southwest Kansas.

WAA will quickly strengthen Saturday. Will have to watch the potential
for storms... mainly across the eastern FA Saturday afternoon and
evening as another dryline develops during the day. The cap might
be slightly weaker Saturday and compared to Thursday for potential
storm development. If storms do go, then severe weather cannot be
ruled out either. The rest of the period is looking to be seasonably
warm and only isolated storm chances with a more likely scenario
of a dry forecast and a continuing drought.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

VFR expected through TAF pd. Some -shra and perhaps isolated tsra
through the overnight hours. Winds will be light and variable underneath
a high pressure center.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden