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521
FXUS63 KDDC 162000
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
300 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Warmer weather can be expected for Friday through Monday.
  Temperatures could reach the upper 90s across far southwest
  Kansas Sunday.

- The best chance of thunderstorms (10-40%) is Sunday afternoon
  and evening. These isolated to scattered storms could produce
  very large hail.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Issued at 219 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

As an upper trough progresses eastward away from Kansas, a
pressure trough on the high plains will lead to south to
southwest boundary layer winds with downslope warming. Highs
will reach into the mid to upper 80s Friday. An upper level
trough progressing across the northern plains will push a weak
front into southwest Kansas Saturday before stalling. Afternoon
highs will reach into the 80s to lower 90s, with the warmest
readings ahead of the front along the Oklahoma state line. There
is a small chance that post frontal upslope flow will lead to
thunderstorms on the western high plains Saturday evening and
these could drift into west central Kansas around Lakin and
Scott City Saturday night. There is a very small chance that an
isolated t-storm or two could form along the stalled front in
southwest Kansas Saturday afternoon.

Upper level troughing will develop across the western United
States Sunday and approach the western high plains Monday.
Sunday afternoon looks volatile in the exit region of a
subtropical jet across central and southwest Kansas. Ahead of
this feature, high dewpoints over the southern plains will
advect northward into Kansas ahead of a dryline. The dry line
will probably stretch from WaKeeney to Cimarron to Meade, but
the location of the dry line could vary by 30-50 miles so that
storms could form a little farther west. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will form by 4 to 5 pm and move eastward, with the
most likely initiation zone from WaKeeney to Dodge City. Given
the steep lapse rates and veering wind profile, very large to
giant hail is possible with these storms. It is too early to
ascertain the tornado potential since this is strongly dependent
on the amount of low level shear; but one or two can`t be ruled
out given the listed ingredients. Of course, any high-end
severe weather will be localized so that the vast majority of
locales will not be directly impacted. We are entering the peak
of the central and southwest Kansas severe weather season so the
occurrence of high-end severe weather shouldn`t be surprising,
if it happens. Temperatures will be hot to the west of the dry
line Sunday where downslope flow and very deep mixing will be
present, with upper 90s possible. Cooler upper 80s to lower 90s
can be expected in central Kansas in the absence of downslope
flow and where rich moisture will prevent deep mixing.

There are also severe storm chances across the plains Monday as
the upper trough approaches. However, the low level moisture
axis may shift a little to the east so that most of central and
southwest Kansas may be west of any severe weather.

Given the isolated to scattered nature of the precipitation
Sunday and Monday, widespread beneficial rains are unlikely.
The ECMWF and CMCE ensemble means indicate average rains of .1"
to .25" across central Kansas, with close to no precipitation
across the southwest corner of Kansas. Of course, average
precipitation doesn`t tell us much when we are dealing with
localized thunderstorms that could dump an inch of rain in
short order. However, this is still several days away and a
lot could change with the timing and location.

The passage of the upper level trough will also lead to a
frontal passage Monday night, with cooler air advecting into
southwest Kansas. High temperatures will fall into the 70s for
Tuesday.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Issued at 219 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

There are also severe storm chances across the plains Monday as
the upper trough approaches. However, the low level moisture
axis may shift a little to the east so that most of central and
southwest Kansas may be west of any severe weather. However,
this is still several days away and a lot could change with the
timing and location. The passage of the upper level trough will
also lead to a frontal passage Monday night, with cooler air
advecting into southwest Kansas. High temperatures will fall
into the 70s for Tuesday.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Light winds will prevail through the period as weak surface
high pressure parks over the high plains. VFR conditions can be
expected with some cloud AOA120.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch