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374
FXUS63 KEAX 060447
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1147 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonal temperatures expected tonight through Thursday but
  significantly less humid. Expect a slight chance (15-20%) of
  showers along the Missouri and Iowa border.

- Potential for storms with heavy rainfall Friday night -
  Saturday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A drier air mass has moved into the region today as dewpoint
temperatures through the day has been in the 50s. So far
temperatures have reached up into upper 70s near 80 with still
heating through the afternoon, we should reach up to our
forecasted temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. Per satellite
imagery another shortwave trough and the associated front will
move across the area later this evening. While there will be
some moisture influx back into the area ahead of this front much
of it will be dry as it moves across, with the exception of
extreme northern MO. While confidence is not high, there is
still potential for some elevated convection in which may see
potential for some showers or it may evaporate before it hits
the group. Have increased for slight chance (15-20%) of
showers in the early evening across Iowas and Missouri state
line between 7pm and 10pm CT. Once it moves past through the
evening the drier air mass will be reinforced for tomorrow and
majority of Friday.

The primary concern for unsettled weather returns Friday night
into Saturday with potential for the next system impacting our
area with locally heavy precipitation across central MO
particularly from Osawatomie to Butler to Lowry City and
southward. models are forecasting. Precipitable water values in
excess of 1.5" and potentially near 2" are possible with ensemble
guidance suggesting above the 90th percentile for the time of
year. Current guidance indicating precipitation values of 0.25
to .60 across much of northwestern MO with higher values up to
1.0 to 1.75 inches across central MO. Will continue to monitor
and watch the changes. Currently as the system moves into the
area the outlooks for thunderstorms is along a line of Kansas
and MO with marginal risk further west into Kansas. However,
given the model guidance with CAPE appears to be limiting the
potential for severe convection across our area. However, there
is a potential for MCS, depending on the strength of the CAPE,
but the excessive rainfall will be the primary concern for flood
risk.

As move into early next week an upper level shortwave ridge
will spread east. This will keep northwest MO dry before a
stronger shortwave trough the Plains Monday night and Tuesday.
where the concern for unsettled weathers returns.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Blair