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278
FXUS62 KGSP 121840
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
240 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Dry conditions will continue into the weekend as a hot upper level
ridge builds into our region from the west.  There may be a brief
afternoon ridgetop shower or storm in the mountains.  Isolated to
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected early next
week as a weak cold front approaches from the north.  The hottest
days are expected to be Friday and Saturday, then the heat should
continue into next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Mixed clouds this afternoon will continue thru the evening before
the Cu field dissipates. Starting to see vertically enhance Cu across
the srn NC mtns and along the nrn ridges. A few updrafts could
become strong enuf to produce brief isol -shra and have bumped up
PoPs a bit to account for this potential. Overnight Ci looks to
remain rather high, which will suppress cooling a bit, but still
expect near normal lows.

On Thu the atmos becomes more suppressive outside the mtns as
soundings show a stg sub inversion in place hindering widespread Cu
development. Soundings dropped at KAVL dont support convective
showers as elCAPE remains shunted below the mlvl inversion and shy
of the freezing level. However, profiles abv 3.5 Kft indicate a
period of time during the afternoon when convection could become
deep enuf to support a few tstms. So, bumped up PoPs across the
ridges a little and added isol thunder mainly across the srn NC mtn
ridgetops. Highs Thu will respond to the increased neg forcing aloft
and drier columns with maxes pushing 90 F outside the mtns and m80s
mtn valleys. Will feel humid as well with sfc dewpts remaining in
the low to mid 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Key Messages:

1) Hot and Humid East of the Mountains Through the Period

2) Isolated Mountain Showers Possible Each Afternoon

As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday: Sfc high pressure will be in place
Thursday into late Friday ahead of a weak cold front tracking out of
the Lower Midwest. Daytime heating may allow for some diurnal
isolated mountain ridgetop showers to develop on Friday but capped
PoPs to slight chance in the mountains for now as the atmosphere
should be fairly suppressed. The cold front will track across the
forecast area Friday evening into Friday night before pushing south
around daybreak Saturday. There will be limited moisture available
with the front so precipitation is not expected and even cloud cover
looks to barely increase ahead of and along the boundary. The
southern periphery of a sfc high tracking east across the Great
Lakes region will build into the region from the north behind the
departing front Saturday into Saturday night. Another round of
isolated diurnal mountain ridgetop showers may develop so have
slight chance PoPs returning in the mountains on Saturday. Highs on
both Friday and Saturday will be fairly similar (despite the passage
of the weak cold front) and around 4-8 degrees above climo.
Temperatures should climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s in the
mountain valleys and east of the mountains each afternoon. Lows
Thursday night will end up around 2-5 degrees above climo, becoming
5-7 degrees above climo Friday night and Saturday night.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Key Messages:

1) Hot and Humid Conditions Linger East of the Mountains

2) Diurnal Showers and Thunderstorms Expected Each Day

As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday: The center of the high will push
offshore into the western Atlantic by Sunday afternoon but the
southwestern periphery of the high will continue to extend across
the Carolinas through the long term forecast period. This will allow
flow to turn SE`ly, leading to return flow off the Atlantic. Thus,
diurnal convection can be expected each afternoon, mainly across the
western zones. Monday and Tuesday have the best chance to see
convection, with Wednesday looking drier. Have the highest PoPs
(chance) confined to the mountain zones early next week, with slight
chance PoPs confined to the mountain zones on Wednesday. Highs will
remain around 3-4 degrees above climo, with lows around 4-6 degrees
above climo.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conds continue through the period as
strong subsidence suppresses the convec potential. Not a good chance
of morning fog outside of the sw/rn NC mtn valleys with a dry sfc
layer persisting. Winds will remain quite light and go calm
overnight then a return to a general sw/ly to se/ly flow beginning
arnd mid day Thu.

Outlook: Surface high pressure remains over the area through the
end of the week with minimal chance for convection and associated
flight restrictions.
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&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SBK