-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
135
FXUS64 KHGX 132047
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
347 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, TROPICAL...

.SYNOPSIS...
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Issued at 324 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Attention for the forecast remains focused on the potential for
tropical development in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. On the
one hand, keeping an awareness of potential weather hazards is
good! Staying aware is a key part of good hurricane preparation.
It`s also important, though, to keep things in perspective, and
evaluate everything in the whole context of the forecast. There is
no need to place excessive importance on single model runs,
especially for one deterministic model. This is particularly true
in the pre- development phase, where confidence is quite low in
the specifics of the evolution of a storm (that may or may not
even form!) that isn`t expected to even exist for several days.
Here`s what we can speak of with confidence at this point:
- Regardless of whether a tropical cyclone develops or not, there
  is confidence that next week will feature disturbed weather for
  Southeast Texas, including gustier winds and increased
  potential for rain and thunderstorms.
- Continue to monitor trusted sources of information, such as this
  office and the National Hurricane Center, for the latest
  forecast information. Consider new information in a broad
  context. Good questions to ask yourself are: "Is this new
  information complementary to what these trusted sources have
  said previously, or is it wildly different?"; "What are the
  trends in forecast changes? Are expectations getting more or
  less threatening?"; "Is the confidence in the forecast
  increasing or decreasing?"
- The best day to have your hurricane preparations for the season
  ready is June 1. The second best day is today (or as soon as you
  can reasonably complete them). Many hurricane preparations can
  be made for an entire season, leaving you less to do when a
  storm does threaten. The more preparation you can have out of
  the way early, the less you will need to accomplish under the
  stress of an incoming storm.
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&&

.SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Isolated showers have been tapping into a shallow layer of moist air
today, with isolated showers continuing to pop up along the coast
this afternoon. Showers shouldn`t be very long lived, and not
expecting thunder due to a layer of very dry air sitting just above
the 925mb layer (essentially, dry air will entrain the updraft
before it amounts to much of anything). Expect any showers to taper
off this evening with the loss of daytime heating.

As the ridge aloft continues to build in from the west and the
surface high remains parked over the Lower Mississippi, subsidence
will continue to keep PoPs on the lower end (less than 10%). Mostly
sunny skies will provide little relief to increasing daytime
temperatures as highs reach into the 90s for most of the area.
Despite a dry air layer aloft, dew point values will still be in the
70s area wide, which will lead to a rather "soupy" feeling. On that
same note, the combination of heat and humidity will lead to heat
index values topping out in the 100-105F range for Friday.

Lows for tonight will be on the warm and muggy side as temperatures
drop into the 70s area wide.

Adams
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

As most of you know, there is some activity occuring in the tropics.
This system is not expected to hit us directly but we should still
prepare for some possible heavy rain. Before I discuss some of the
details, please keep in mind that this forecast can easily change as
we still have a ways out before we see the storm`s effects. As of
now, according to the National Hurricane Center, there is a 40%
chance for this system to develop and impact the northeast Mexico
coastline early next week. However, the clockwise wind pattern
from the high pressure in Florida is predicted to push some of
that rain into our region. This means that locally heavy rainfall
could be possible with 3-4" south of I-10 and 1-3" north of I-10.
There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding these rainfall totals,
as 4-6" could be possible (at this time these higher amounts are
predicted to occur along the coastal counties). As of now, the
Excessive Rainfall Outlook has a marginal risk mainly along the
coast for Sunday and Monday. It should be noted that marginal risk
is level 1 out of the 4 possible risk levels. However, with the
possibility for rain all of next week, make sure to be on the look
out for the potential of minor flooding. Winds are not expected
to pose much of a threat for the next week with an onshore
direction and a speed around 5-15 mph. Gusts are only expected to
get as high as 20 mph. Tropical moisture is expected to impact the
area as early as Sunday evening as rainfall chances increase to
20-40% (highest PoPs reside along the coast). The chance of rain
will continue through the majority of the week next week with the
heaviest rainfall occurring between Sunday evening and Wednesday.
On the bright side, with all of this precipitation and cloud
coverage, we will see a reduction in temperature! Expect a maximum
around 95F on Saturday due to the ridging aloft in our area. Once
the rain approaches, the rest of the week will have maximum
temperatures around 90F. The minimum temperatures will not be
heavily impacted by this system and will remain in the 75-80F
range.

If you would like more details on the possible storms discussed
above, please read the "Tropical" portion of this discussion. It
should once again be emphasized that this forecast is not set in
stone as there is still quite some time before Sunday evening. In
order to stay updated, please keep an eye out for our future
forecast discussions.

Thompson
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&&

.AVIATION...
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(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

VFR prevailing at all sites through the period. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible as the sea breeze moves inland
this afternoon. Otherwise, quiet weather with generally light and
variable winds.

Adams
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&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 324 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

A tropical system is predicted to impact the gulf starting Sunday
evening and lasting through the rest of the week. This system`s main
impacts is expected to be heavy rainfall, elevated seas, and
increased risk of rip currents. This is expected to be a more rain
focused system making our winds not extremely high. Throughout the
week, winds should remain onshore with a speed of 5-15mph. Wave
height will be heavily impacted due to the system`s long easterly
fetch. This could make the heights of our waves reach 8-10 feet.
Caution flags and/or advisories are likely with the wind speeds and
wave heights becoming elevated next week.
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&&

.TROPICAL...
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Issued at 324 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor for the potential
for a broad surface low in the Bay of Campeche to develop into a
tropical cyclone late in the weekend into early next week. As of
this afternoon, the chance of formation over the next seven days
stands at 40% and the chance of formation over the next two days is
still near 0%.

Environmental conditions are favorable for gradual development of a
tropical cyclone with this system, and deterministic/ensemble
guidance in fairly good agreement on a closed low developing in the
Bay of Campeche early next week. This could eventually result in a
tropical depression developing early next week and slowly drifting
westward/west-northwestward towards the northeastern Mexico
coastline. Regardless if this system has a name attached to it or
not, we`re still looking at an influx of deeper tropical moisture
being sent towards the Texas Gulf coast which will bring an increase
in rain chances next week. Keep in mind that some areas have not yet
fully recovered from the previous heavy rain events from earlier in
the spring. As of right now, model consensus points toward most of
the rain falling near and along the coast with ~3-6" forecast
rainfall totals near and south of I-10. We`re also anticipating
elevated tides and an increased risk in rip currents next week as
well.

Please continue to monitor the latest forecasts for any
changes/updates. These can be found from NHC at www.hurricanes.gov
and at our office`s website at www.weather.gov/houston.

Batiste
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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College Station (CLL)  74  94  72  95 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  76  95  74  95 /  10   0   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  80  90  81  91 /   0   0   0  10
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&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Thompson
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Thompson