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910
FXUS63 KICT 102335
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
635 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm temperatures return this week, with a slight chance of a
  shower or two Tuesday morning in north central KS.

- Upper 90s to lower 100s possible on Thursday.

- Slight chances for showers and storms later this week into
  the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 235 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

     TONIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...

Current water vapor imagery shows an upper level ridge settling in
over the High Plains and bringing northwesterly flow aloft to
central and eastern Kansas. This quiet pattern should hold through
the rest of today and into tonight as a weak shortwave rolls in off
the High Plains and into northern Kansas. Coverage of this latest
opportunity for precipitation is expected to be very limited and is
not expected to be severe. Otherwise, look for high temperatures
tomorrow and Wednesday to approach 90 degrees for much of the region.

     THURSDAY THRU MONDAY...

Above average temperatures are expected across the area on Thursday
with widespread highs in the upper 90s to near 100 expected.
Opportunities for rain return on Friday as a frontal boundary
approaching from Nebraska stalls over central Kansas. The next
opportunity for storms returns quickly by Saturday afternoon as a
weak upper-level shortwave arrives from the southwest. Deterministic
model guidance generally agrees on the timing and weak magnitude of
this wave. Thus, the relatively-weak deep-layer shear (20-30 kts)
progged for this event is likely to limit the probability of
widespread severe storms. Given modest instability over Kansas,
however, the strongest storms may still be capable of producing
damaging winds and severe hail. Otherwise, look for widespread highs
in the middle to upper 90s to settle in through the weekend
into the beginning of next week.
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&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
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Issued at 623 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side through
the next 24 hours.

Shortwave will track across the Northern Plains tonight and will
bring storms to west-central Nebraska but will stay north of the
forecast area. Winds will remain out of the southeast tonight
and will become more south on Tue but will remain on the light
side. Confidence is high that VFR condition will remain in
place.
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&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JK
AVIATION...RBL