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713
FXUS63 KICT 130808
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
308 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Dangerous heat this afternoon into the early evening.

- Severe storms possible late this afternoon and early evening
  for areas generally along and north of Highway 50.

- Storm chances remain for Fri night through Sat night,
  especially for Central KS.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 308 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Water vapor imagery currently shows shortwave energy over
southern Manitoba with strong upper ridging over the Desert
Southwest. Meanwhile, an upper low is situated off of northern
Baja. At the surface, cold front extends from southern MN
across northern Nebraska.

Upper impulse is expected to quickly track from southern
Manitoba into the Northern Great Lakes region by late this
afternoon which will allow the cold front to track south. By
21z, the cold front is expected to stretch generally along
Interstate 70 and shortly after 00z will approaching Highway 50.
Storms are expected to develop along the front after 5 pm with
the front forecast to be between I-70 and Highway 50. With some
capping issues and lack of upper forcing, confidence is low on
how many storms will develop along the front. With a hot and
highly mixed environment, downburst winds will definitely be a
threat and while deep layer shear isn`t overly impressive, with
CAPE values around 4,000J/KG, it won`t take much to get some
severe hail. With lack of mid/upper forcing, this activity will
be highly diurnally driven.

Still looking for highs today in the 100 to 104 range for areas
along and west of I-135 with heat indices around 105 degrees. So
current heat advisory still looks on track.

Upper ridging is expected to expand into the Southern Plains
for Thu night into Fri morning while the upper low that is off
of Baja moves into the Desert Southwest. By Fri afternoon, what
is left of the weak cold front is expected to stretch across
central KS with good upslope flow across most of western
KS/eastern CO. Meanwhile, the western CONUS upper impulse will
be tracking across the Four Corners region. Current thinking is
that storms will develop Fri afternoon over eastern CO in the
upslope regime with the aid of the approaching upper wave. The
main question will be how far east and south storms are able to
track Fri night. At this point have the highest confidence over
central KS into southern Nebraska where cooler mid level temps
will be along with stronger 850-700mb moisture transport.

There is good model agreement that the upper impulse will track
across central/northern KS on Sat and into northeast KS/nw MO on
Sat evening. This will keep storm chances around for Sat-Sat
evening for central and parts of south central KS. As the upper
wave moves off into the Missouri Valley on Sun, there is good
agreement between the ECMWF and GFS in shortwave energy tracking
from the Northern Rockies into Southern Manitoba. This will
setup strong westerlies from the Great Basin through the
Northern/Central Plains through Mon. Surface baroclinic zone is
expected to be far enough north to limit our storm chances. For
Mon night into Tue, a sharp shortwave trough is forecast to dig
from the Northern Intermountain into the Great Basin which
should keep the better storm chances north of the forecast area.

Still looking for above normal temps for the Sat-Tue time frame
with highs in the low and mid 90s for most locations.
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&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Main aviation concern will be early evening storm chances.

A weak cold front is expected to move through Nebraska and into
north central KS by late this afternoon. A few storms will
likely try and develop along it in the 22-01z time frame
generally along and just south of I-70. So for now will run with
prob30s at KRSL-KGBD-KSLN-KHUT after 22z. Confidence is low on
how many storms will develop along the front. Outside of the
storms, VFR conditions are anticipated through the TAF period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
evening for KSZ033-048>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.
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&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...RBL