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753
FXUS62 KILM 241356
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
956 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Shower and thunderstorm chances will grow as a series of
upper level disturbances move across the region today and
Saturday. Inland temperatures will rise into the lower 90s by
Sunday, and shower and thunderstorm chances will continue ahead
of a cold front. The front will move through Tuesday, and
temperatures will cool back towards normal beginning Wednesday.
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&&

.UPDATE...
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An early morning wave of convection essentially dissipated as
it crossed the Cape Fear region. Behind this modest shortwave
aloft, NVA and a surge of mid-level air should keep conditions
dry now through at least 1 PM. Scattered convection will
probably begin to develop along the seabreeze front between 1-3
PM, perhaps spitting out some gusty winds with the drier air
aloft getting entrained into downdrafts. The approach of another
shortwave from the west will increase the potential of inland
storms late in the afternoon and into the evening.

Changes with this update were generally minor, focused hourly
convective timing and seabreeze winds.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Flow aloft remains progressive through the near term while Bermuda
High continues to linger offshore. Two distinct shortwaves will pass
over or just north of the area, with the first currently just north
of the area. This feature is responsible for the handful of storms
moving across southern NC this morning. Some of this activity may
make it to the coast in a weakened state, although the environment
is somewhat unfavorable.

A more robust, albeit stretched, shortwave approaches from the west
late in the day. The PVA ahead of the wave arrives around the peak
in SBCAPE and will enhance convection developing along the Piedmont
trough. Meanwhile, the sea breeze will be able to develop convection
as early as midday with the loss of the mid-level subsidence
inversion/cap that had been in place the last few days. Inland
convection will move to the coast late afternoon/evening and
interact with ongoing convection over eastern areas. Leading edge of
the shortwave moves offshore mid-late evening with convection
winding down before midnight as it translates east. While the
environment is not really supportive of organized or widespread
strong/severe storms there is the ever present possibility of
damaging wind gusts and large hail hence the marginal risk.

There are some hints of another round of convection very late
tonight, although this seems unlikely. The afternoon/evening
activity will tap into most if not all of the instability and there
will be weak subsidence overhead. The only way a late night round of
convection seems possible is if the activity this afternoon/evening
underperforms. Temperatures will continue to run above climo despite
increasing cloud cover and storm potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A 500 mb shortwave trough will push across the eastern Carolinas
Saturday, and migrate off the coast during the afternoon/evening
hours. Precipitable water values of 1.6-1.8" through the day
will support scattered to numerous showers/tstms, which should
blossom with daytime heating. Deep layer flow turns NW in the
wake of the trough axis Saturday evening, precipitable water
values drop to 1.1- 1.2", and showers/tstms should migrate off
the coast. There should be a lull in activity overnight Saturday
night into Sunday as upper- level ridge builds overhead. Some
moisture recovery will occur on Sunday as precipitable water
values climb back to 1.3-1.4". Can`t completely rule out a
shower or tstm during the heat of the afternoon, but subsidence
should limit the coverage of anything that manages to develop to
isolated/widely scattered at best.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The mid-level ridge axis will move off the coast Monday. Potential
for scattered showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast
Mon-Tue as we will be impacted by a series of weak shortwave
disturbances that make their way through the base of a longwave
trough, which will carve out over the Great Lakes the first half of
the week. PoPs will generally be in the 30-50% range each day. The
column dries out Wednesday as a cold front moves off the coast and
the upper flow turns westerly. Wed-Thu appear dry as surface high
builds in and temps return closer to climo.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cluster of storms moving east across southern NC this morning is
showing signs of weakening as it is moving east-northeast, into
a more stable environment. Trajectory of the cells suggests it
will miss ILM and the activity will be east of LBT by 12Z. Weak
outflow may reach ILM around 12Z, but this would only result in
more of a west wind vs a southwest with not much increase in
speed.

Another round of storms is likely mid-late afternoon moving in
from the west with storms affecting FLO/LBT before moving to the
coast and interacting with any lingering/ongoing storms.
Potential for periods of MVFR/IFR at all terminals today. Gusty
winds will be possible with any stronger storms. Depending on
how much rain the area receives, fog could be an issue around
the end of the valid TAF period.

Extended Outlook...Scattered thunderstorms will be accompanied
by periodic short lived MVFR/IFR conditions through the weekend
into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Bermuda High and Piedmont trough will once again lead to southwest
flow with some afternoon speed enhancement due to the strengthening
trough. Sea breeze will also enhance near shore wind speeds
beginning early afternoon. Convection may affect the waters in the
evening hours, potentially lingering past midnight. Seas around 2 ft
for much of the day will build to 3 ft late on the back of the
enhanced southwest winds. Gusts around 20 kt will be possible this
afternoon and evening before trending back to 2 ft late tonight. The
wind wave will remain dominant, from the southwest with a wave
period of 4-5 seconds.

Saturday through Tuesday...A weak surface low off the Outer Banks
should result in WNW flow across the waters early Saturday. A weak
gradient will be in place, which could add a degree of variability
to the wind direction, with speeds on the order of 10 kt or less.
The weak pressure pattern will remain in place through Sunday,
keeping wind speed relatively light and somewhat variable into
Sunday afternoon. The synoptic pattern will support a return to
southerly flow by Sunday evening between high pressure off the coast
and a surface front that will be moving across the MS River Valley.
The front will remain west of the area through Tuesday. Scattered to
numerous showers/tstms are expected to move across the waters
Saturday, with activity waning Saturday night. The chance for storms
appears to be minimal Sunday-Sunday night as upper ridge builds
overhead, but potential returns Monday afternoon and Tuesday as the
ridge is displaced.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CRM
UPDATE...TRA
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...CRM
LONG TERM...CRM
AVIATION...III
MARINE...III/CRM