-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
930
FXUS61 KILN 250555
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
155 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move through the region Saturday,
bringing a low end chance for showers and storms. On Sunday, a
stronger system has the potential to push multiple rounds of
storms through the Ohio Valley, with the potential for some
storms to be severe. After this system moves through,
temperatures cool behind the cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Evening update... Showers and storms eventually made their way
into northwest portions of the forecast area this evening, with
isolated activity elsewhere. The outflow boundary associated
with this activity is moving southeast, but as it does so, it is
losing reinforced cold air due to the lack of new
thunderstorms. This boundary will continue to move southeastward
toward I-71 before washing out.

Further to the west, another thunderstorm cluster is entering
western Indiana. Thunderstorm activity with this feature is also
beginning to decrease. There remains a pocket of instability
across south-central Ohio, so can`t rule out the possibility of
this activity eventually reaching the tri-state area within the
next 4-6 hours. Either way, the lack of shear will limit the
potential for thunderstorms to reach any sort of concerning
intensity overnight.

Previous discussion... A low pressure system currently located
over the Dakotas continues to work its way east as it occludes.
The associated cold front with the system stretches south, away
from the parent low, forcing showers and storms out ahead of it
into eastern Indiana/ western Ohio. This decaying MCS looks to
move into our region around the start of the near term period.
Both shear and MLCAPE will be marginal nearer to our FA. In
addition to this, another area of shower and storms moving out
of western Tennessee looks to move northeast toward our region
(also decaying) during the same time frame. Some residual
activity from this may also make it into the Tri-State region
during the late evening hours. Severe threat with both of these
disturbances looks to be minimal, but cannot rule out an
isolated storm with strong winds.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
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Continued tricky forecast as the occluding low slowly drags the
cold front the region on Saturday. Some AM showers are possible
through the area, but with afternoon destabilization, the
better chances for showers/storms will be east of I-70 as the
front continues its trek eastward. Right now, guidance suggests
a more disorganized threat (rather than an organized line). The
primary threat with these storms will be strong to damaging
winds and large hail. High temperatures on Saturday reach the
low 80s.

By evening hours, precipitation chances decrease and we stay
quiet overnight. Overnight low temperatures drop to the upper
50s/ low 60s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Sunday will have the focus of severe weather coming in from the
west. In the late morning and early afternoon, a decaying line
of thunderstorms will move through the CWA from west to east.
Any discrete storms present through this time will have a
potential for damaging winds. The worst weather potential lies
behind the line late in the day and early evening. This is as
the lower atmosphere destabilizes with daytime heating, a
continued influx of strong winds just above the surface, and
both increasing shear and moisture. Highs will be in the low to
mid 80s, warmest in the east.

The region will remain warm-sectored behind any evening storms,
widespread shower and thunderstorm activity through morning.
Lows will be near 67 due to the continued warm air advection
occurring.

On Monday, a cold front will pass east through the Ohio Valley,
but models are strongly different with regards to timing. While
the forecast just denotes a decreasing chance through the day,
there will be a marked back edge that will have a better timing
to it with future forecasts. Highs will be notably cooler, lower
70s northwest, near or just above 80 in the south and
southeast. Overnight will be the first night in a while dropping
below 60, with upper 50s forecast.

Upper level energy rotating around a low over WI will bring the
threat for some showers Tuesday, mainly over central Ohio.
Highs will again be muted ranging from the low 70s north to mid
and upper 70s south.

The stronger upper shortwave and axis of the low will pass late
Tuesday night and early Wednesday with lingering shower
possibilities through this time. Lows Wednesday morning will be
in the lower 50s, with highs within a few degrees of 70.

As the upper low crosses, surface high pressure to the west
builds and a deep northerly flow will be found, with a noted
decrease in overnight low temperatures and a slight daytime
warming. Lows will drop to near 50 and highs will remain in the
lower 70s.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Through sunrise, some scattered convection will affect the
western terminals. Have added either a VCTS/CB or a TEMPO group
to account for this activity. Localized MVFR/IFR conditions may
occur with the thunderstorms. South winds 5 to 10 knots can be
expected.

For today, a cold front will move east/southeast across the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Main mid level disturbance will be
removed from our region across the Great Lakes. This just leaves
diurnal instability and weak low level forcing ahead and along
the cold front to generate some scattered showers/storms. Have
only included either a VCSH or a VCTS/CB until frontal passage.
Winds will shift from the southwest to the west, then to the
northwest with the frontal passage. Wind speeds will be around
10 knots.

For tonight, the cold front will sag to the east/southeast and
will eventually lay out along or just south of the Ohio River.
Skies will clear behind the front. Some patchy to areas of fog
(overland and river fog) may develop along and south of the Ohio
River. Will take a closer look at this potential with the next
TAF package.


OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times through Tuesday.
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&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CA
NEAR TERM...CA/McGinnis
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...Hickman