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469
FXUS61 KILN 201843
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
243 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Warm temperatures to continue today with a few showers or storms
returning Tuesday. The next widespread chance for showers and
storms is likely Wednesday into Thursday with the approach and
passage of a cold front. Slightly cooler conditions are in store
for the end of workweek, although there may be additional
chances for showers and storms Friday into the upcoming
weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Mid level ridge axis to continue settling slightly south and
east. Shortwave over WI to dampen out as it tracks thru the
Great Lakes around the periphery of the ridge this evening.
Most of the area will remain dry with an isold shower or storm
clipping the far northern counties into the early evening.

Scattered diurnally driven cumulus clouds will wane with sunset.
Another shortwave over the Mid MS Valley to pivot thru the area
overnight. Expect to see some high and mid level clouds with
this feature. Can not rule out a shower spilling into the west
overnight but have continued a dry forecast going with the
consensus.

Another warm and humid overnight period with temps dipping into
the lower and mid 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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Another warm day is on tap for the area Tuesday. Mid level
shortwave tracks east of the area in the morning with some minor
height rises in its wake. Temperatures to generally top out in
the upper 80s. An isolated 90 degree reading is possible at the
typical warm spots.

While there will be slight chance for a few afternoon or evening
showers or thunderstorms across ILN/s northern counties most
locations will remain dry.

Mid level ridging should keep most of Tuesday night dry. As flow
backs ahead of trof have allowed for slight chance pops into the
west late. Mild lows in the upper 60s to around 70.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
There is an uncommonly high degree of uncertainty for the day
3/4 forecast. In general, strong low pressure will be lifting
northeast into the Upper Midwest to start the period Tuesday
night, while a high-amplitude ridge is centered over the United
States Eastern Seaboard. At this time, guidance is struggling
with how much progress the low and its associated cold front
make into the ridge for mid-week.

Looking at the European ensemble, quite a few members show little
forcing and only isolated PoPs heading into Wednesday morning, with
most showing some convection developing from midday into the
afternoon well ahead of a lagging cold front. Severe weather
potential is also uncertain... but it appears the best upper level
support for organized thunderstorms remains to our southwest and
west, with maybe some threat spreading into east-central Indiana and
west-central Ohio on Wednesday. Due to this, will keep a mention in
the HWO with low-end confidence at this time.

There will likely be showers and a few storms Wednesday night into
the day on Thursday depending on the progress of the slow-moving
cold front. The ECMWF is most progressive with the system (less PoPs
on Thursday) while the GFS slows things down (more PoPs on
Thursday). Either way, most guidance stalls the front to our south,
setting up additional shower and storm potential Friday, especially
across our southern counties. In the meantime, Thursday and Friday
may have closer to normal temperatures as the mid-level ridge gets
shunted a bit to the south and east of our CWA.

Sensible weather becomes even more uncertain heading into the
weekend. It seems prudent to keep a good chance of precipitation
(per the blend) with a stalled front in the area. In fact, both the
GFS ensemble and the European ensemble maintain a better than 50%
probability of >0.1" QPF through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Surface and ridging aloft will offer VFR conditions this
afternoon into this evening. Fair weather cumulus clouds between
4-5ft will develop again today before dissipating early this
evening.

As a shortwave tracks thru the Great Lakes scattered convection
will affect northern Ohio with coverage of showers/storms
expected to remain north of the TAF sites.

Some MVFR valley fog may affect KLUK overnight with all other
TAF sites remaining VFR overnight. Cumulus clouds and high level
clouds to develop across the area Tuesday. Coverage of any
convection is too low to mention in the TAF forecast Tuesday.

Southwest winds at less than 10 kts will become light southerly
at 5kts or less overnight and than southwest around 10 kts
Tuesday.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms likely at times Wednesday into Thursday
morning. MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities to linger into
Thursday. Additional chances for thunderstorms are possible
Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR