-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
107
FXUS64 KJAN 020559
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Through Sunday: An active weather pattern will continue in the
near term as rain and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop
later on in the evening.

Short term guidance continues to show a shortwave disturbance
developing a convective complex in the southwest and pushing the
previously mentioned complex into the ArkLaMiss region during the
evening/overnight hours. With instability still in place (MLCAPE
values near 2000 J/kg, lapse rate between 6-7 C/km) and decent
precipitable water values near 1.5 inches, isolated severe weather
and flash flooding will remain a concern through the evening,
mainly over southern and far eastern portions of the area, and
HWO graphics will continue to reflect the risk areas. Overnight
temperatures are expected to be in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Rain and thunderstorms are expected to start off Sunday morning as a
shortwave disturbance moves off towards the east. A strong storm or
two could be possible during Sunday morning but severe weather is
not anticipated. As the shortwave progresses through the area, flash
flooding threat should diminish as the afternoon progresses and
rain chances will diminish late afternoon into the evening. /SW/

Sunday night through Friday night: Active westerlies will
continue through the long term forecast bringing the potential for
additional MCS activity and perhaps the threat for severe weather
and localized flash flooding. Convective rainfall should be most
prominent over northern portions of the area Mon-Tue, but it
appears the Wed-Fri time frame will have the greatest concerns
for the area as whole when a significant cold front is expected to
push farther south toward the forecast area. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Local radar scans currently show a line of scattered showers moving
to the east across HEZ through around 06Z-08Z. Confidence remains
too low at other TAF sites to introduce this TAF cycle at this time.
Elsewhere, VFR conditions will across other sites to start off the
TAF period. VFR conditions will continue through 08Z Sunday before
dropping to MVFR status across MEI around 09Z Sunday. Between 10Z-
15Z, MEI will start to drop to IFR ceilings. A couple of southern
sites (mainly PIB, HBG,& HEZ) will see ceilings drop to IFR/LIFR as
scattered showers continue to propagate east during this timeframe.
Adjustments will be necessary as conditions start to around this
timeframe. Chances for additional scattered SHRA or TSRA will start
to increase a little after 15Z Sunday, especially for areas along
and south of Interstate 20. Showers will continue through 23Z Sunday
before clearing by 00Z Monday with VFR conditions prevailing. /CR/
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Jackson       87  69  89  71 /  30   0  20  10
Meridian      87  68  91  69 /  40   0  20  10
Vicksburg     87  70  89  72 /  20   0  20  10
Hattiesburg   84  70  91  71 /  60   0  20  10
Natchez       86  70  89  72 /  40   0  20  10
Greenville    88  72  89  73 /  10   0  20  20
Greenwood     88  70  90  72 /  20   0  30  20
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&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SW/EC/CR