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450
FXUS62 KMFL 300512
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
112 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Friday)
Issued at 103 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

A subtle upper troughing pattern will remain present across SE CONUS
(including South Florida), with a few southern stream impulses
drifting equatorward towards our region. The most noteworthy change
compared to prior days will be a distinct change in the low-level
flow regime, as east-northeasterly winds are expected to prevail
across the CWFA. As a result, low-level moisture convergence maxima
will generally become most prevalent across portions of the interior
and southwest Florida - where the greatest convective coverage is
expected tomorrow afternoon. Certainly cannot rule out a few strong
to even marginally severe thunderstorms will moisture convergence
becomes best juxtaposed with favorable mesoscale ingredients such as
steepened lapse rates and enhanced ML CAPE, particularly from the
early afternoon through late evening hours.

Friday will feature the gradual building of upper level geopotential
heights, as well as a general weakening in the upper flow regime
with shortwave departing eastward into the western Atlantic waters.
This will cause a subtle backing of flow near the surface, which may
shift the highest storm coverage a further westward into portions of
Collier County and the western interior region. Expect weaker storms
on average, given the less favorable synoptic regime. Strong wind
gusts, frequent lightning, and localized flooding remain the primary
impacts to monitor.

Afternoon maximum temperatures through Friday generally remain in
the upper 80s to low 90s, with the highest temperatures being
realized across western portions of the region. Most populated
regions across South Florida will remain well below heat advisory
criteria, with apparent temperatures generally not exceeding 100-102
degrees.
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 103 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

A welcomed change in the weather pattern is to be expected across
much of South Florida this upcoming weekend, owing to a backdoor
cold front across the western Atlantic waters. This will maintain
the prevalence of east-northeasterly winds, which will result in a
milder breeze coming in from the Atlantic waters across eastern
portions of our CWFA. Expect a few quick-moving low-topped showers
across the east coast at times, with the bulk of convection
spawning yet again over the interior and southwestern portions of
the region. A generally quiescent synoptic regime should limit
thunderstorm intensity, however cannot rule out a few strong pulse
storms that take advantage of high instability across the
interior region.

Towards the beginning to middle of next week, winds will gradually
veer out of the east, resulting in a slight uptick in temperatures
across the region. Expect a few showers and possibly thunderstorms
in the morning hours across the east coast, with a gradual westward
drift towards the interior again.

A much needed reprieve from the oppressive temperatures can be
expected through the weekend and into early next week across much of
South Florida. Afternoon high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s
can be expected along the east coast. Dewpoints will drop to a more
manageable 65-68 degrees, allowing for lower apparent temperatures
in the upper 80s to low 90s. A gradual warming will take place
towards early to middle portions of next week.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 103 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF cycle.
Winds become ENE around 10 kt by afternoon for eastern sites, and
most convection generally expected over interior and SW FL
(possibly near APF). SW flow expected near APF in conjunction with
Gulf sea breeze.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 103 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Generally benign boating conditions will continue through the end of
the week. By this weekend however, wave heights will increase over
the Atlantic waters. Waves may be as high as 5 to 6 feet in the
presence of a backdoor cold front. Winds may increase out of the
east-northeast up to around 20 kt this weekend as well, which may
prompt a Small Craft Advisory. Aside from this, daily showers and
thunderstorms could develop possibly resulting locally elevated
winds and seas periodically.
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&&

.BEACHES...
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Issued at 103 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Enhanced easterly flow in the presence of a departing front will
increase the risk for rip currents this weekend across the Atlantic
beaches. As a result, a high risk for rip current could develop
across the Atlantic beaches this weekend.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Miami            92  78  90  79 /  30  10  20  20
West Kendall     93  74  91  75 /  40  20  20  20
Opa-Locka        93  77  91  77 /  30  10  20  20
Homestead        92  76  89  77 /  40  20  20  20
Fort Lauderdale  90  79  88  79 /  30  10  20  20
N Ft Lauderdale  90  78  89  78 /  30  20  20  20
Pembroke Pines   94  78  93  78 /  30  10  20  20
West Palm Beach  91  76  90  76 /  20  30  20  20
Boca Raton       91  77  90  77 /  20  20  20  20
Naples           94  74  95  74 /  40  40  50  20
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&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRB
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...SRB