Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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276 FXUS66 KMFR 151534 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 834 AM PDT Sat Jun 15 2024 .DISCUSSION...
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The forecast remains on track this morning. The first of two weak fronts is bringing scattered showers over the Oregon coast and parts of Douglas County while supporting cooler temperatures across the area through the day. A second front will bring slight chances (20-30%) of light precipitation over northern Lake and Klamath counties tomorrow, with other areas expected to stay dry. Please see the previous discussion for more details about the short- and long-term forecast. -TAD
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&& .AVIATION...
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15/12Z TAFs...There are some ceilings around 5000 to 6000 feet west of the Cascades this morning with some showers closer to the coast under this unstable airmass. Models suggest some cumulus building over the region this afternoon as the depth of mixing increases. The chance of rain showers is roughly 5 percent later this afternoon under these clouds with higher probabilities the farther one travels north. Overall, active weather across the region as this upper level wave passes through with VFR ceilings and visibilities near terminals through the TAF period. -Smith
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&& .MARINE...
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Updated 833 AM Saturday, June 15, 2024...Winds will increase late this afternoon and evening south of Port Orford with steeper seas developing near the California border. The steeper seas and gustier winds will continue in this area into Sunday morning. Another upper level disturbance is expected to move over the area on Sunday, bring more slight precipitation chances (10-20%) and wind gusts of 15 to 20 kts over all waters Sunday into Monday morning. A broad but generally weak thermal trough is forecast to build over area waters on Monday evening and remain through the week. Northerly gusts of 25 to 30 kts over waters are expected south of Gold Beach, with gusts of 20 to 25 kts to the north. With gentle westerly swell expected, the resulting sea state is wide areas just above or just below warning thresholds. Steep seas are most likely going to be limited to south of Gold Beach, but aren`t impossible in other areas south of Cape Blanco through the week. Future guidance will help to bring more clarity to exact warning areas or if warnings are even needed. Long-term probabilistic guidance currently has very low (10-20%) chances of waves over 9 feet limited to Brookings and farther south through this coming week, so anything more chaotic than those small areas of steep seas discussed above is not currently expected. -TAD
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&& .PREV DISCUSSION...
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/Issued 509 AM PDT Sat Jun 15 2024/ DISCUSSION...Radar is showing a few weak showers entering into southern Oregon along the coast and into Douglas County. Satellite imagery is showing some clouds across more portions of southern Oregon and northern California. This is part of a broad low pressure system that will be pushing through the Pacific Northwest this weekend. These showers will largely be confined to the coast and to areas north of the Jackson/Douglas County border. The main story regarding this low is that it will lead to generally colder temperatures and expected freezing conditions for Saturday night into Sunday morning for Father`s Day. Have upgraded the freeze watch to a freeze warning. Please see the NPWMFR for more details. Otherwise, we will experience cool, breezy afternoon today. This low and associated fronts are producing a little more uncertainty in the forecast Sunday afternoon into Monday afternoon than usual. A stronger front is rotating around the slow-moving low in the Pacific Northwest and is expected to weaken as it tracks inland. The strength and positioning of this wave have a wide range of solutions among the ECMWF and GEFS ensemble members. The forecast leans slightly wetter than the NBM solution, with a widespread slight chance to chance probability of light rain in order to highlight the risk of an honest to goodness rainfall, especially west of the Cascades, with the highest probability during late Sunday evening into early Monday morning. The operational version of the GFS leans toward the wetter side of the solutions, a little wetter than our forecast, while the weaker ECMWF is more representative of the NBM. We will be watching this closely for potential adjustments as data updates. The upper low is expected to gradually move eastward Monday night. Then, Tuesday through Friday, models indicate weak trough to near zonal flow over the region with a high pressure ridge offshore. With this pattern expect daytime temperatures to trend warmer (becoming slightly above normal) and generally dry conditions. Overnight low temperatures will be cool to mild Monday night/Tuesday morning, with a potential for areas of frost conditions in valleys east of the Cascades. For Monday night/Tuesday morning, National Blend of Models indicates a 50-60% chance for low temperatures in the mid 30s in valleys east of the Cascades (Klamath Falls, Lakeview and Alturas) with a 20-25% chance for low temperatures down to 32. Areas in northern Klamath County, near Chemult, have a higher chance (60-80%) for freezing conditions (32 deg and below) during this period. Overnight/morning low temperatures will trend warmer Tuesday night through late in the week. Northerly winds maybe gusty during the afternoons/evenings for areas along the coast as a surface thermal trough builds beginning Monday night into Tuesday. Otherwise, expect typical diurnal breezes across the area. -Schaaf/Clarstrom
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&& .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM PDT Sunday for ORZ029>031. CA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ084-085. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ356-376. && $$