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407
FXUS66 KMFR 190545
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1045 PM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.SHORT TERM...
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The main forecast message is a warm up this week
but not extreme heat for this time of year. No thunderstorms are
expected but cumulus cloud development will occur over the
mountains in the afternoons through Thursday. The most challenging
part of the short term forecast through Friday morning is how
much cloud cover will occur at the coast along with any drizzle.
The low level flow is more offshore (northeasterly) south of Cape
Blanco during the overnight periods but remains more northerly
north of Cape Blanco. There could be periods of clouds and maybe
drizzle at times at the coast north of Cape Blanco through Friday
morning. There should be fewer clouds or clear south of Cape
Blanco except near Brookings due to a southerly surge of stratus
that frequently reaches that area in a reversal of the flow there.
Typical sea breezes will also cause gusty northerly winds at the
coast during the afternoons and early evenings.

.LONG TERM...High temperatures Friday and Saturday will be
around 10 to 15 degrees above normal with the warmest temperatures
of around 100 degrees in the lower Klamath River Valley. The
warmer valleys reach the moderate category of HeatRisk on those
days but the relatively short duration and cool early morning
temperatures should prevent any heat advisories from being issued.
However, the recent cooler weather will mean some acclimation to
this heat will be needed.

A weak and dry front will move across the area Saturday night and
early Sunday. Temperatures will be cooler Sunday but still above
normal. Temperatures will likely remain above normal early next
week but uncertainty in the models increases early next week so
there is less confidence in the temperature forecast.
Sandler
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&&

.AVIATION 19/06Z TAFs...
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For inland areas, VFR ceilings and
visibilities are anticipated through the TAF period as high pressure
builds. For areas closer to the coast, models suggest a modest
probability of some lower ceilings building into the coast overnight
with LIFR ceilings near North Bend(KOTH). Those LIFR Ceilings should
eventually burn off during the morning hours.

-Smith
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&&

.MARINE...
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Updated 830 PM Tuesday, June 18, 2024...High pressure
offshore and a thermal trough along/near the coast will likely
remain in place through at least the weekend. This will result in
persistent northerly winds and wind-driven seas through this period.
Conditions will be worst south of Cape Blanco where winds and steep
seas hazardous to small craft will persist.

The thermal trough will strengthen further Wednesday afternoon into
Friday evening, and this may bring very steep seas and/or northerly
gales to the waters south of Cape Blanco Thursday afternoon into
Friday evening. The latest model solutions keep winds just under
gales at this time. With this uncertainty, it is recommended
mariners to stay tuned to updates as we move through the week.

-Guerrero/Sargeant
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&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday
     for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350-370.

&&

$$