-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
087
FXUS62 KMHX 080525
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
125 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will move through today and this evening,
with weak high pressure building in this weekend. Another front
will move through Sunday night into early Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1010 PM Friday...Added 15% PoPs (Slight Chance) for parts
of OBX, Pamlico Sound, and coastal waters for the 6 hours with
this update. Forcing from the front moving eastward tonight
paired with warm Pamlico Sound waters could provide enough
instability for isolated pop up weak showers to develop.

Previous Discussion...As of 715 PM Friday...Seabreeze will
fizzle out shortly as we get later into this evening, with cloud
cover also decreasing. Dewpoints are on their way down west of
the sea breeze and will drop more rapidly once the stationary
cold front finally pushes offshore tonight. High pressure will
build in behind the cold front.

Clear skies and light winds out of the N after midnight,
coupled with the much drier airmass, will set the stage for an
unusually mild night for early June as temperatures fall into
the low 60s across the coastal plain. More typical overnight
conditions linger along the coast, with overnight lows in the
upper 60s to around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
As of 725 PM Friday...No major changes with this update.

Previous Discussion...As of 1520 Friday...Flow aloft becomes
purely zonal behind the shortwave that passes overhead through
the day tomorrow. Winds start out Nerly with approaching SFC
high centered to the W of the FA, then Werly in the afternoon
with local sea/sound/river breezes dominating coastal wind
patterns. Highs just a degree or two lower than Fri, MaxTs in
the upper 80s most, upper 70s-low 80s for seabreeze cooled
locales.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 310 PM Fri...Mostly dry with a more comfortable airmass
expected this weekend as weak high pressure builds in. Another
front will push through Sunday night and early Monday, bringing
threat for sct showers and storms. Low confidence forecast
Monday night through late week, with still a large spread in the
guidance.

Saturday night through Sunday...Upper troughing becomes more
zonal along the east coast through the weekend with weak high
pressure building in, keeping area mostly dry. A more comfortable
airmass expected over the weekend with dewpoints falling into
the 50s and 60s and high temps in the 80s to low 90s Sun.

Sunday night through Thursday...A front will move through
Sunday night into early Monday morning, bringing chances for sct
showers and storms. Low confidence forecast Monday night
through late week, with still a large spread in the guidance.
Upper troughing will continue over the eastern US, with
potential for another frontal passage and sfc low development
Monday night through mid week. GFS continues to be the wetter
solution, keeping the front stalled across the area through mid
week. Given lack of run to run consistency and uncertainty,
will continue to trend towards the previous forecast, while
incorporating the newer NBM, increasing pops slightly but
capping at chance.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /through 06z Sat/...
As of 125 AM Sat...VFR conditions expected to prevail through
the next 24 hours as weak high pressure builds in behind a cold
front currently stalled along coastal NC. Very little diurnal cu
expected today with dry low levels in place, but cirri coverage
will slowly increase through the day as shortwave trough
approaches from the northwest late tonight. Wind fields today
will be dominated by local sea and sound breeze circulations,
remaining at 5 kt or less through the day.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 310 PM Fri...Pred VFR conditions expected through Sunday
with weak high pressure building in. Scattered showers and
storms may impact the sites Sunday night into Monday, which may
bring brief periods of sub- VFR. Brief periods of sub-VFR Mon
night into Tue with sct showers and storms.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 730 PM Friday...No major changes with this update. Still
expecting a N`rly surge behind the cold front with marginal,
short lived gusts near 25 kts N of Cape Hatteras.

Previous Discussion...As of 1530 Friday...Forecast today calls
for gradual improvement through the day as front slowly
approaches from the west. Southwesterly winds will increase this
afternoon to around 15 kt thanks to seabreeze circulations, but
will gradually veer west and the northwesterly overnight into
Saturday as the front crosses the waters. A minority of guidance
suggests a brief surge of northwesterly winds of 15-20kt with
gusts approaching 25kt behind the front, particularly for the
waters N of Cape Hatteras and PamSound. If this does occur, it
will be brief - no more than a couple hours, so have opted to
not issue an SCA for this Nerly surge. Seas 2-4ft in short
period wind waves fall to 2-3ft after the Nerly wind surge. Seas
continue subsiding to widespread 2ft@5-7sec Sat with light to
moderate N-NW winds 5-15 kt veering to become onshore once the
seabreeze circulation kicks in.

LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...
As of 310 PM Fri...Moderate to breezy SW flow returns Sunday
ahead of another cold front. SW winds will increase to 15-20 kt
by Sunday evening, with the front moving through Sunday night
into early Monday morning. A brief period of SCA conditions will
be possible with potential for a few hours of 25 kt gusts.
Winds will grad diminish through the day Mon. Seas 2-3 ft Sat
and Sun, building to 2-4 ft Sunday evening. Another front and
low pressure area may impact the waters Monday night into
Tuesday, though given the spread in the guidance and little run
to run consistency, confidence remains low through mid week. SCA
conditions will be possible.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB/RJ
SHORT TERM...CEB/RJ
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/MS
MARINE...CQD/CEB/RJ