-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
752
FXUS62 KMHX 041402
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1002 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor front will move into the area today and stall. The
weak front will lift back north early Wednesday as strong cold
front approaches from the west. The front will move through
Friday and Friday night, with slightly cooler and drier
conditions expected this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 10 AM Tuesday...Isolated showers are spread across the
CWA this morning. Coverage will increase as we tap into the
forcing from the weak backdoor cold front sagging south from the
Chesapeake Bay. Outside of adjusting PoPs to match latest radar
trends, no major changes were made with the morning update.

Previous Discussion...As we get into this afternoon and evening
a more typical summer like pattern sets up across the CWA
today. Upper level ridging will gradually build over the
Southeast and Mid- Atlantic while a weak backdoor cold front
gradually approaches from the north and slowly dives S`wards
across the area. This front along with the seabreeze will be the
focus for shower and thunderstorm activity today across ENC
with chances quickly increasing after noon and maximizing around
the 2-8 PM timeframe. Coverage starts out isolated and then
becomes more scattered in nature with PoP`s hanging around
30-50% mainly along the inland areas this afternoon. Temps
generally get into the mid to upper 80s today.

Once again not expecting severe weather today given weak effective
shear (15-25 kt) and weak forcing, though the threat is non-zero.
Despite these limiting factors, 1000-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE would still
make it possible for some stronger storms to develop with threats of
heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and small hail.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Tue... Once the sun sets generally expecting for any
ongoing shower and thunderstorm activity to quickly weaken and
dissipate across the area as instability rapidly lowers with the
loss of daytime heating and forcing remains weak at best from
the front. Much like the previous few evenings a few iso showers
will remain possible tonight. Otherwise upper ridging centers
itself over the area while weak backdoor cold front stalls over
ENC. Another warm and muggy night is forecast tonight with lows
once again in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 235 AM Tue...Unsettled conditions expected through
Thursday with near seasonable temps. High pressure will
strengthen offshore through late week with a cold front
approaching from the west. A cold front will move through Friday
into Fri night, bringing drier conditions late week into the
weekend. Another frontal system may impact the area early next
week.

Wednesday through Thursday...The stalled frontal boundary will
continue to lift back north early Wednesday with cold front
approaching from the west and high pressure strengthening
offshore. This will allow rich moisture (PWATs 1.75-2") to
advect in from the west ahead of a potent upper level trough and
strong cold front. Increasingly unsettled conditions are likely
with a diurnal max in coverage each afternoon. 00z guidance
trending drier for Wed, so lowered pops slightly, keeping high
chances inland and low chance/sc along the immediate coast.
Greatest coverage still looks like Thursday afternoon and
evening. Weak shear will limit the overall svr threat, though
an isolated strong storm with gusty winds, small hail and heavy
rain will be possible each day. An increase in heat and humidity
is also likely as highs climb into the upper 80s to low 90s
each afternoon, and it will feel like 95-100 degrees for most of
the area when factoring in the humidity.

Friday through Monday...Cold front looks to move through
Friday into Friday night. Iso showers/storm possible Fri, but
most areas will remain dry. 00z guidance shows upper troughing
lingering along the east coast through the weekend, depicting
drier and slightly cooler conditions across eastern NC. More
comfortable airmass expected this weekend with dewpoints falling
into the 50s and 60s and high temps in the 80s. Still a good
amount of uncertainty early next week, with the potential for
another frontal system to impact the area. Will keep sc to
chance pops for now.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tue night/...
As of 645 AM Tue...As of this update partly cloudy skies and dry
conditions are seen just about everywhere across ENC. The lone
exception is around PGV where some iso shower activity and
cloudcover is currently noted.

Predominantly VFR conditions and light winds are forecast
through the TAF period. Ongoing shower activity near PGV should
dissipate within the next few hours with dry conditions then
forecast into early this afternoon. As we get into this
afternoon, typical summertime convective pattern returns, with
westerly winds in the morning backing to a southerly direction
as the sea breeze advances inland. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development is likely after 18z along the seabreeze
and along an incoming backdoor cold front. This will bring a
threat for some brief periods of sub-VFR ceilings but given
inherent uncertainty in which TAF sites will see storms and
lower ceilings have left just a VCTS mention in the TAFs for
this afternoon after 18Z to just about 00Z. Any ongoing shower
and thunderstorm activity this afternoon will then quickly
diminish overnight with continued VFR ceilings and vis forecast
into Wed morning.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 235 AM Tue...Unsettled conditions expected this week,
with best chances for showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday.
This could bring some periods of sub-VFR conditions to the
terminals. Sub-VFR cigs possible early Thu morning. A cold front
will move through Fri and Fri night.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through tonight/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Ongoing 5-15 kt SW`rly winds and 1-2 ft
seas will continue to persist through the morning hours before
winds back to a more S`rly direction this afternoon as the
seabreeze sets up. Winds along the northern waters may briefly
become light and variable as a weak backdoor cold front moves
south across the area but by this afternoon 5-10 kt SE`rly winds
should pick up across this area. Winds could gusts close to 20
kts at times this afternoon behind the seabreeze. Winds will
once again become SW`rly at 5-15 kts tonight as the seabreeze
eventually dissipates and the previously mentioned front stalls.
Seas remain around 1-2 ft through tonight. There will once
again be a chance for shower and thunderstorm activity today but
most of the activity will reside over the Coastal Plain and
Gulf Stream.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 235 AM Tue...Light to moderate SSW winds Wed 5-15 kt will
increase to 15-20 kt late Wed afternoon and Wednesday night,
becoming SW 15-25 kt Thursday. SCA conditions possible Wednesday
night and Thursday. The cold front will move through Friday and
Friday night, with gradient relaxing and winds becoming WSW
10-15 kt. Light to moderate NNW-WNW winds Sat 5-15 kt. Seas will
be mostly 2-3 ft through Wednesday, building to 3-6 ft
Thursday, then gradually subsiding to 2-4 ft Fri and Sat.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF/OJC
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/RCF
MARINE...CQD/RCF