Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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334 FXUS64 KMOB 231745 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1245 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 VFR conditions prevail at the terminals. Winds turn southwesterly through the afternoon hours with light and variable winds generally expected overnight. Showers and storms will develop by late Monday morning across our inland counties, but will likely not impact the terminals until late in the afternoon. 07/mb
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&& .PREV DISCUSSION...
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/issued 636 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/ New AVIATION... AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 636 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 VFR conditions are expected over the area through tonight. Calm or light and variable winds become southerly to southwesterly at 5 to 10 knots this afternoon. /22 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 505 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/ New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Monday) Issued at 505 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 The eastern periphery of the large upper ridge over the southern half of the U.S. will weaken through tonight as an upper shortwave passing over the Great Lakes region digs southward over the eastern states. Prior to the arrival of the upper shortwave, large scale subsidence and lack of moisture will result in dry and hot weather conditions again today. Rain chances enter back into the forecast on Monday as a surface low pressure area associated with the shortwave moving eastward across New England on Monday sends a weak cold front southward into the Tennessee Valley and northern portions of Georgia and Alabama before becoming nearly stationary and slowly dissipates. While the front is not expected to enter into our area, a plume of increased moisture ahead of this boundary will gradually sink southward with deep layer moisture improving that will bring our precipitable water values as high 2 inches in the afternoon. This moisture combined with convergence along the sea-breeze and potential outflow boundaries will aid in the development of scattered showers and storms in the afternoon. A strong storm or two cannot be completely ruled out Monday afternoon, but we are not expecting any organized severe storms at this time. High temperatures today and Monday will reach the mid to upper 90s (3-8 degrees above normal) inland and low 90s at the coast. Heat indices across much of the area today will range from 100 to 105 degrees, and from 103 to 108 degrees on Monday. Lows will be very warm and humid and only lower into the mid 70s inland with upper 70s and low 80s along the coast, or 5-10 degrees above normal. A MODERATE risk of rip currents continues through the period. /22 SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Tuesday night) Issued at 505 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Upper level ridging remains centered over the Desert Southwest on Tuesday with the local area lingering on the eastern periphery of this feature. Meanwhile, a large upper trough to our east moves out over the western Atlantic. This pattern places the local area in a light northwesterly flow aloft on Tuesday with southwesterly winds prevailing at the surface. Guidance continues to indicate a plume of enhanced moisture that will be in place across most of the area Tuesday morning. It`s possible that this moisture plume could get nudged further south and become confined to southern portions of the area during the day Tuesday as high pressure builds slightly over the Appalachians. While there`s still some discrepancy with how far south this moisture gradients sags, guidance is suggesting that we could see some drier air move into northern and especially northeastern portions of the area on Tuesday. This drier air could help to limit rain chances in these areas, but for now have maintained scattered showers and storms across the area for Tuesday afternoon. Any showers and storms that develop on Tuesday are expected to follow a diurnal pattern with convection dissipating through the early evening hours. The bigger concern for Tuesday will be very hot temperatures as highs climb into the middle and upper 90s in most locations. Tuesday is still looking like the best potential for seeing a Heat Advisory as heat index values are currently forecast to reach to around 105-100 degrees. However, we will continue to monitor for this potential as drier air across portions of the area would have impacts on those heat index values. /14 LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 505 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Rain chances will be on the rise as we head into the middle of this week as a weak northwesterly flow prevails. Deep layer moisture will improve during this time as the surface ridging over the Appalachians slides east and the upper ridging retreats further west. A more potent shortwave trough is also expected to within the mean flow, with it slowly pivoting across the Southeastern US on Wednesday and Thursday. The lower heights and increasing moisture combined with another weak boundary that sags down into the Southeast will result in scattered to numerous showers and storms on Wednesday and Thursday, with isolated to scattered PoPs persisting into the overnight hours. By Friday, the shortwave aloft exits to the east and very weak upper ridging attempts to build back into the region. This will reduce rain chances somewhat Friday and Saturday with much of the area seeing scattered showers and storms both days. It will still be rather warm and humid during the week with high temperature generally topping out in the lower and middle 90s. Heat index values will likely be just below Heat Advisory criteria during the middle to latter part of next week. /14 MARINE... Issued at 505 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 No hazardous impacts expected as a light southwesterly to westerly flow will occur throughout next week. /22
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Mobile 76 96 76 96 76 94 74 92 / 0 40 10 30 10 50 40 60 Pensacola 78 94 79 95 80 93 77 92 / 0 40 10 40 20 60 40 70 Destin 80 91 80 93 80 91 79 90 / 10 30 10 40 20 50 40 60 Evergreen 73 96 73 98 73 95 72 93 / 10 40 10 40 10 60 40 60 Waynesboro 74 96 74 99 74 96 72 94 / 10 40 10 30 10 60 40 50 Camden 73 95 73 97 73 95 72 93 / 20 30 0 30 10 60 40 50 Crestview 73 97 74 99 74 96 72 94 / 0 50 10 40 10 60 30 70
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&& .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob