Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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582 FXUS64 KMOB 142104 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 403 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM...
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(Now through Saturday) Issued at 403 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 The heat continues to ramp up as we head into the weekend. Surface high pressure and upper ridging continue to build in and remain the dominant weather features for the near term period. Afternoon highs today have been topping out in the middle to upper 90`s for most locations, with Saturday looking even warmer as highs soar into the upper 90`s to near 100 degrees. The good news is it`s a relatively "drier" heat with afternoon dewpoints falling into the middle 60`s. This will make it such that heat indices rise into the 100 to 105 range for most locations Saturday afternoon. Overnight lows will be warm in the lower to middle 70`s for most locations tonight. Given the aforementioned upper ridge and surface high, expect mostly sunny conditions with dry weather prevailing. A low risk of rip currents remains in place through Saturday. MM/25
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&& .SHORT AND LONG TERM...
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(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 403 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 An upper ridge over the region shifts a bit eastward during the period in response to a Plains upper trof which mostly ejects off across the Great Lakes and a broad upper trof developing over the western Gulf. A weak surface trof will be located across interior portions of the forecast area early Saturday evening then dissipates overnight with a light southerly surface flow otherwise prevailing through Sunday night. Deep layer moisture looks too limited to support pops Saturday night, but slight chance to chance pops return to the forecast on Sunday as deep layer moisture improves and the sea breeze aids in convective development. Lows Saturday night and Sunday night range from the lower 70s inland to the mid/upper 70s at the coast. Highs on Sunday will be in the lower 90s near the coast and in the mid 90s further inland. A low risk of rip currents Saturday night will be followed by a moderate risk for Sunday and Sunday night. A broad and modest upper trof over the western Gulf which extends weakly into eastern Texas/Oklahoma steadily becomes better defined and extends further inland through Tuesday. For the forecast area, this temporarily keeps subsidence effects from an eastern states upper ridge at bay, though there is uncertainty as to how quickly drier air manages to work back into the area. A moist southeasterly surface flow will be in place on Monday and have gone with chance to likely pops. There is better confidence for Tuesday through Friday that drier air will be a limiting factor for the coverage of convection so have gone with slight chance to chance pops for much of the area for each of those days. A high risk of rip currents is expected Monday and Tuesday. /29 /22
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&& .MARINE...
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Issued at 403 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 A light to occasionally moderate diurnal flow prevails through Saturday, with an offshore flow at night into the morning hours and a mostly onshore flow in the afternoon and early evening hours. A light to moderate southeasterly flow is established by Sunday and strengthens as low pressure develops in the southwestern Gulf. Seas are also expected to increase as we head into early next week. BB/03
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Mobile 74 97 74 91 75 88 74 89 / 0 10 0 50 40 70 30 50 Pensacola 74 95 78 90 77 88 77 89 / 0 10 10 60 50 60 40 40 Destin 76 92 79 90 78 90 78 90 / 0 10 20 50 40 50 40 40 Evergreen 72 100 72 95 71 92 71 92 / 0 10 10 40 20 40 10 20 Waynesboro 72 100 72 95 72 88 71 90 / 0 10 0 30 20 60 20 30 Camden 73 99 72 95 72 92 72 91 / 0 10 0 30 20 30 10 20 Crestview 71 99 72 94 72 93 72 93 / 0 10 10 50 20 40 20 30
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&& .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob