-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
228
FXUS64 KMOB 171150
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
650 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Mostly VFR conditions will prevail today with some MVFR ceilings
developing by the afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers and
storms will develop during the afternoon and continue into the
evening. Temporary reductions of visibility could be possible in
the strongest of storms. Winds will be out of the east to southeast
around 10 knots. BB/03
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... 
-- Changed Discussion --
/issued 431 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 431 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

The Gulf is ready for business as deep southeasterly flow
continues to pump rich Gulf moisture northward. A series of
inverted troughs will work their way around the northern periphery
of a larger gyre centered over central America. This semi-
persistent feature is know as the Central American Gyre and
typically set up around this time of year and can be the spawning
grounds for some early season tropical mischief. Spoiler alert,
the NHC has highlighted this area for potential for tropical
development over the next 5 days. The good news is for our area
that even if we do get our first system of the year, it would
likely move into Mexico or extreme southeast Texas. The bad news
is that we will be in a bit of a funnel of deep Gulf moisture that
will setup between the Gyre and the large upper ridge to our
east. In this channel of moisture, PWATS will range from 2 inches
to as high as 2.5 inches or more. With this sort of moisture and
pattern in place, its almost always a good bet on a rather soggy
week. The next wave of precip will enter the area bringing widely
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms by midmorning into
the early afternoon today. The best chance for rain will continue
to be across southeastern Mississippi into coastal southwestern
Alabama where better low level convergence will be present. The
biggest issue will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall
given the rather deep tropical moisture. Storms will be highly
efficient in producing heavy rainfall; however, nebulous forcing,
dry antecedent conditions and no true low level focus for storms
will likely keep any flooding localized at least for now. While
some localized flooding cannot be ruled out, it will likely be
confined to poor drainage areas and urban zones.

Tuesday will bring yet another round of rain and storms; however,
rain will likely be more confined to the coast as the upper ridge is
able to build in some over our interior areas. This will also be in
response to whatever developing system near Texas does as it draws
moisture further west out of our area. Expect some rain chances
especially along and south of I-10 during the day on Tuesday but most
of the area will remain dry. This is only temporarily as there will
be plenty of opportunities for more rain in the coming week.
Along with the increased rain chances, waves will be on
the general increase leading to a HIGH risk of rip currents
beginning today and eventually large breaking waves at the beaches
leading to a high surf advisory. BB/03

SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 431 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

An upper ridge centered over the easternmost states builds into
the region while an easterly wave advances across the western
Atlantic to generally over the Bahamas. A low pressure system is
meanwhile expected to traverse the southwestern Gulf, and another
low pressure system may develop in association with the easterly
wave. Please see the National Hurricane Center for the latest
information regarding these features. The overall pattern will
allow for progressively drier deep layer air to flow into the
area, though this will mainly affect interior areas and be less
pronounced closer to the coast. For the most part, have gone with
slight chance to chance pops near the coast through the period
with dry conditions further inland. Lows Tuesday night range from
the lower 70s inland to the mid/upper 70s at the coast. Highs on
Wednesday will be around 90 to the lower 90s. Lows Wednesday night
range from around 70 well inland to the mid 70s near the coast. A
High Risk of rip currents and a High Surf Advisory will be in
effect through the period. /29

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 431 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

The upper ridge is nudged away from the area through Friday by
the easterly wave which continues into the eastern Gulf. An upper
trof progresses across the northern Plains and mainly into the
interior eastern states over the weekend, and a broad upper level
weakness or trof forms over the southeastern states between this
feature and the anticipated remnants of the easterly wave. Drier
air associated with subsidence from the upper ridge will be slow
to improve over the area but looks to make a solid improvement by
Sunday at the latest. There is uncertainty with what will
transpire with the potential low pressure system development
associated with the eastern wave, which could approach the coast
of the southeast states on Thursday or Friday. Please see the
National Hurricane Center for the latest on this potential system.
Have gone with slight chance to chance pops for the southern
portion of the area on Thursday, with convective development
likely tied to the sea breeze. Slight chance to chance pops on
Friday for most of the area will be followed by mostly chance pops
on Saturday, due to in part to uncertainty associated with the
pattern. Chance to good chance pops follow for Sunday as deep
layer moisture improves over the area. /29

MARINE...
Issued at 431 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

A moderate to strong east-southeasterly flow will persist throughout
the marine zones through Tuesday and increase during the middle
of the week. This increase in winds will be in response to a
developing area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf. Small
craft advisory conditions will develop by Tuesday and persist
through Thursday. Seas will also increase to around 7 to 9 feet
offshore with 2 to 3 feet in nearshore bays and waterways. BB/03
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      88  74  88  75  90  74  92  73 /  80  60  30  20  30  10  30  20
Pensacola   88  76  89  77  90  76  92  75 /  60  50  40  30  20  20  40  30
Destin      90  76  90  77  92  76  92  76 /  40  20  30  20  20  20  30  30
Evergreen   90  70  90  70  91  69  92  69 /  40  20  10   0  10   0  10  10
Waynesboro  90  71  88  71  92  70  92  69 /  60  60  10   0  10   0  10   0
Camden      90  71  89  72  90  70  91  69 /  40  20   0   0   0   0   0   0
Crestview   92  70  92  72  93  70  94  70 /  40  20  10  10  10  10  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 7 AM CDT Thursday for
     ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 7 AM CDT Thursday for
     FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Tuesday to 7 AM CDT Thursday for
     GMZ650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

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