-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
069
FXUS64 KMOB 140904
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
403 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
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(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

The heat will slowly crank up the next two days as high pressure
builds over the area. Upper ridging will slowly build east across
the deep south today leading to rather large subsidence across the
area. Given the drier air and increased subsidence. High pressure
will be directly overhead on Saturday likely leading to rather
hot and dry conditions across the area. Given the drier air aloft
and warm surface temperatures, we will continue to mix out today
leading to another hot but not incredibly muggy conditions.
However by Saturday, moisture will likely begin to slowly push
northward leading to hot and muggier conditions. Temperatures will
climb into the mid to upper 90s today and upper 90s on Saturday.
Heat indices will likely crack 100 with wet bulb globe temps
around 85 to 88 suggesting some concerns for heat vulnerable
populations. While these values are not what we typically see to
warrant heat products, given its still earlyish in the summer,
caution should be utilized while working outdoors. With light
onshore flow, Rip current risk will continue to be low but will
likely quickly increase Sunday into early next week. BB/03
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&&

.SHORT TERM...
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(Saturday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

An upper ridge over the region shifts a bit eastward during the
period in response to a Plains upper trof which mostly ejects off
across the Great Lakes and a broad upper trof developing over the
western Gulf. A weak surface trof will be located across interior
portions of the forecast area early Saturday evening then dissipates
overnight with a light southerly surface flow otherwise prevailing
through Sunday night. Deep layer moisture looks too limited to
support pops Saturday night, but slight chance to chance pops
return to the forecast on Sunday as deep layer moisture improves
and the sea breeze aids in convective development. Lows Saturday
night and Sunday night range from the lower 70s inland to the
mid/upper 70s at the coast. Highs on Sunday will be in the lower
90s near the coast and in the mid 90s further inland. A low risk
of rip currents Saturday night will be followed by a moderate risk
for Sunday and Sunday night. /29
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

A broad and modest upper trof over the western Gulf which extends
weakly into eastern Texas/Oklahoma steadily becomes better
defined and extends further inland through Tuesday. For the
forecast area, this temporarily keeps subsidence effects from an
eastern states upper ridge at bay, though there is uncertainty as
to how quickly drier air manages to work back into the area. A
moist southeasterly surface flow will be in place on Monday and
have gone with chance to likely pops. Similar pops may well be
suited for Tuesday as well, but due to uncertainty with the
distribution of deep layer moisture have opted for slight chance
to good chance pops for now. There is better confidence for
Wednesday and Thursday that drier air will be a limiting factor
for the coverage of convection so have gone with slight chance to
chance pops for much of the area both days. A high risk of rip
currents is expected Monday and Tuesday. /29
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&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 403 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

A light to occasionally moderate diurnal flow prevails through
Saturday, with an offshore flow at night into the morning hours
and a mostly onshore flow in the afternoon and early evening
hours. A light to moderate southeasterly flow is established by
Sunday and strengthens as low pressure develops in the southwestern
Gulf. Seas are also expected to increase as we head into early
next week. BB/03
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Mobile      96  73  97  75  93  75  89  74 /   0   0  10  10  40  30  70  30
Pensacola   95  76  95  78  91  77  89  77 /   0   0  10  10  50  40  60  40
Destin      92  78  93  79  90  78  90  77 /   0   0  10  10  50  40  50  40
Evergreen   98  71  99  72  95  72  92  71 /   0   0  10  10  40  20  50  20
Waynesboro  97  70  99  73  96  72  89  71 /   0   0  10   0  20  20  60  20
Camden      96  71  98  73  97  72  92  73 /   0   0  10   0  20  10  40  20
Crestview   98  71 100  72  95  72  94  71 /   0   0  10  10  50  20  50  20
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&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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