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380
FXUS64 KMOB 220955
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
455 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
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(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 455 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

The large upper ridge over the southern half of the U.S. will
retrograde westward as an upper shortwave over the northern Great
Plains passes over the Great Lakes region and then digs southward
over the eastern states. Large scale subsidence and lack of moisture
will result in dry and hot weather conditions through the weekend.

High temperatures over the weekend will reach the mid to upper 90s
(3-8 degrees above normal), with heat indices across much of the
area ranging from 100 to 105 degrees. Lows will remain 3-8 degrees
above normal tonight, and only lower to 70 to 75 degrees inland and
from 75 to 80 degrees along the coast. Warmer lows are expected
Sunday night in the mid 70s inland with upper 70s and low 80s along
the coast, or 5-10 degrees above normal. A MODERATE risk of rip
currents continues through the weekend. /22
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&&

.SHORT TERM...
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(Monday through Monday night)
Issued at 455 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Rain chances enter back into the forecast on Monday as an
expansive upper level ridge slowly retrogrades westward and an
upper trough deepens along the Eastern Seaboard. Down at the
surface, a weak cold front is expected to sag southward into the
Tennessee Valley and northern portions of Georgia and Alabama on
Monday before becoming diffuse. While the front is not expected
to enter into our area, a plume of increased moisture ahead of
this boundary will gradually sink southward with deep layer
moisture improving across our area on Monday. Precipitable water
values will increase to around 1.8-2 inches by Monday afternoon
and this moisture combined with convergence along the sea-
breeze/outflow boundaries will aid in the development of scattered
showers and storms Monday afternoon and evening. A strong storm
or two cannot be completely ruled out Monday afternoon, but we
are not expecting any organized severe storms at this time.

It will be toasty outside of any convection on Monday and we`ll
likely need our first Heat Advisory of the summer. High
temperatures are currently forecast to climb into the middle and
upper 90s which are about 5-7 degrees above average for this time
of year. The increasing moisture and lack of mixing combined with
these temperatures will result in heat index values of 105-110
degrees Monday afternoon. /14
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 455 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

A more active pattern will take hold as we head later into next
week. The aforementioned upper level ridging becomes centered
over the Desert Southwest on Tuesday while broad upper troughing
lingers over much of the eastern US. This pattern will place the
local area within a northwesterly flow aloft through the period.
Guidance is also in good agreement with a shortwave pushing into
the Southeast on Wednesday and slowly inching eastward through
Thursday. Deep layer moisture will continue to rise through the
week due to a persistent southwesterly flow at the surface. The
highest rain chances are expected to occur on Wednesday and
Thursday with numerous showers and storms developing during peak
heating and as the upper shortwave moves within the northwest
flow. Another weak front also tries to push into the Southeastern
States again on Thursday, but confidence in this feature making it
through our area is rather low. Upper level ridging then tries to
build back east on Friday which could help keep showers and
storms more scattered in nature.

Heat will continue to be a concern next week and particularly on
Tuesday. High temperature will rise into the middle and upper 90s
once again Tuesday afternoon with heat index values climbing into
105-110 degree range. We`ll likely need a Heat Advisory for
portions of the area on Tuesday. Ambient temperatures will be a
few degrees cooler on Wednesday and Thursday (thanks to the
increased rain chances and cloud cover), but it will still be
rather warm and humid with heat index values likely staying just
below Heat Advisory criteria during the middle of next week. /14
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&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 455 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

No hazardous impacts expected as light and variable winds
today become a light to occasional moderate southwesterly to
westerly flow tonight through next week. /22
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Mobile      95  73  95  76  95  76  95  76 /   0   0  10   0  30  20  40  30
Pensacola   93  76  93  78  95  80  94  79 /   0   0  10  10  40  20  50  30
Destin      92  78  91  80  92  81  92  80 /   0   0  10  10  40  20  50  30
Evergreen   97  70  97  73  96  74  97  73 /   0   0  10  10  40  20  50  30
Waynesboro  97  71  97  74  97  74  96  74 /   0   0   0  10  30  20  50  30
Camden      95  71  96  74  95  74  97  73 /   0   0   0  10  30  20  40  30
Crestview   98  71  98  73  97  74  97  74 /   0   0  10   0  40  20  50  20
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&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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AL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM CDT early this morning for
     ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM CDT early this morning for
     FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
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&&

$$

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