Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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697 FXUS64 KMOB 211741 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1241 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 VFR conditions prevail through the period. Winds will shift to southeasterly along the coast late this afternoon with the sea breeze and then turn light and variable overnight. 07/mb
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&& .PREV DISCUSSION...
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/issued 647 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024/ ...New AVIATION... AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 647 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Primarily a wind shift forecast as northeasterly winds around 10 knots become southeasterly to southerly along the coast this afternoon as a sea-breeze pushes inland. Winds north of the sea- breeze will remain northeasterly to easterly at 5 to 10 knots. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail with FEW-SCT cumulus clouds around 5000 feet expected this afternoon after the BKN ceiling at 7000 feet over southeast MS and Mobile County AL clears off to the east by 18z. /22 .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 450 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024/ ..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Saturday Night) Issued at 450 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 The large, elongated upper ridge extending from the western Atlantic to New Mexico will continue to slowly sag southward through Saturday afternoon, and then begin to retrograde westward Saturday night. Other then a few showers and possibly a storm or two across portions of south central Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle late Saturday afternoon induced by a sea-breeze, dry weather conditions will prevail through the period. High temperatures this afternoon will be slightly above normal ranging from 90 to 95 degrees. Warmer highs are expected Saturday in the mid to upper 90s (3-8 degrees above normal), with heat indices across much of the area ranging from 100 to 105 degrees. Lows tonight will continue to be slightly above normal ranging from 67 to 72 degrees inland areas and from 72 to 77 degrees closer to the coast. Barrier islands should see lows only dropping into the upper 70s. Warmer lows are expected Saturday night in the low to mid 70s, or 3-8 degrees above normal. Barrier islands should see lows only dropping to around 80 degrees. A HIGH risk of rip currents continues through tonight, followed by a Moderate risk through the remainder of the period. /22 SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Sunday night) Issued at 450 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Upper level ridging will gradually retreat westward through Sunday night as a northern stream shortwave sweeps across the Great Lakes region and a southern stream shortwave meanders along the southeastern Seaboard. Down at the surface, a weakening trough axis associated with the southern stream trough will linger over southern Georgia and northern Florida on Sunday. Onshore flow is expected to develop as we head later into the weekend and these southerly winds will gradually increase deep layer moisture (PWATs rising to around 1.5-1.8 inches) across the area by Sunday afternoon. This moisture combined with the surface trough to our east could help to initiate an isolated shower or storm over portions of south central Alabama and the Florida Panhandle Sunday afternoon, but most areas will otherwise remain dry thanks to the departing upper ridge and its associated subsidence. The bigger story on Sunday will be the heat as high temperatures are currently forecast to climb into the middle and upper 90s. Increasing boundary layer moisture will also make it feel even hotter with heat index values expected to reach 100-105 degrees. Overnight lows won`t provide much in terms of relief with temperatures only falling into the middle and upper 70s. /14 LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 450 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 The two aforementioned shortwaves will merge into a longwave trough extending along the Eastern Seaboard on Monday. At the same time, the upper ridging that has been over the area shifts out over the Desert Southwest and amplifies. This pattern will place the local area within a northwesterly flow pattern through Tuesday. Persistent onshore flow at the surface along with increasing moisture and height falls will bring an unsettled pattern back to the area with daily chances for showers and storms. The lowest PoPs in the period are currently forecast for Monday as the ridging continues to exit east. Rain chances will then become more scattered to numerous on Tuesday. It will be very hot and humid outside of any convection early next week with high temperatures expected to reach into the middle and upper 90s. Heat index values of 105-110 degrees are also forecast and Heat Advisories will likely be needed for Monday and Tuesday. By the middle of next week, the troughing moves out over the Atlantic while a potent shortwave trough pushes across the Southeastern US. The lower heights and plenty of moisture will result in numerous showers and storms on Wednesday and Thursday. The higher rain chances and cloud cover will give way to slightly cooler ambient temperatures, but the humid conditions will keep heat index values in the 103-108 degree range on Wednesday and Thursday. /14 MARINE... Issued at 450 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 No hazardous impacts expected as easterly winds continue to decrease this morning, shifting southeasterly in the afternoon. Winds will briefly become light and variable tonight through Saturday afternoon, followed by a light southwesterly to westerly flow Saturday night toward the middle of next week. Seas will slowly subside through Saturday. /22
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Mobile 71 95 74 95 76 96 76 95 / 0 0 0 10 0 30 20 50 Pensacola 74 93 77 93 79 94 80 94 / 0 10 0 10 10 40 30 60 Destin 78 92 80 91 80 91 80 91 / 0 20 10 10 10 40 30 60 Evergreen 68 96 71 97 74 96 73 96 / 0 10 0 10 10 40 20 60 Waynesboro 69 98 72 98 74 97 74 97 / 0 0 0 10 10 30 20 60 Camden 68 95 72 96 74 95 73 96 / 0 0 0 10 10 40 20 50 Crestview 69 98 72 97 74 97 74 96 / 0 20 0 20 0 40 20 60
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&& .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob