-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
606
FXUS64 KMOB 130944
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
443 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
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(Now through Friday)
Issued at 443 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Hot but not full blown gulf coast gumbo hot as upper troughing
lingers across Florida and dry northwesterly flow continues. Upper
ridging will slowly build east across the deep south by Friday
leading to rather large subsidence across the area. Given the
drier air and increased subsidence, rain chances will be rather
limited with really only an isolated shower or two across the
Florida panhandle possible near Destin this afternoon. Other than
that do not expect much in terms of rainfall. Given the drier air
aloft and warm surface temperatures, we will continue to mix out
the moisture leading to hot but not incredibly muggy conditions.
Some might even call it a dry heat around here. Temperatures will
climb into the mid 90s tomorrow and potentially into the upper 90s
on Friday. Heat indices will likely crack 100 with wet bulb globe
temps around 85 to 88 suggesting some concerns for heat
vulnerable populations. While these values are not what we
typically see to warrant heat products, given its still earlyish
in the summer, caution should be utilized while working outdoors.
With light onshore flow, Rip current risk will continue to be
low and potentially increase later in the week. BB/03
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&&

.SHORT TERM...
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(Friday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 443 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

An upper ridge over the southern and eastern Plains builds into
the eastern states during the period while the progression of a
large surface ridge over the eastern states allows for a light
southerly flow to become established over the forecast area on
Saturday. For the most part, deep layer moisture looks too
limited to consider pops, especially with subsident effects
associated with the upper ridge building into the area. Lows
Friday night range from around 70 well inland to the mid 70s at
the coast, then lows Saturday night range from the lower 70s
inland to the upper 70s at the coast. Highs on Saturday will be in
the mid to upper 90s. A low risk of rip currents is expected
during the period. /29
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 443 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

An upper trof develops over the western Gulf and expands weakly
northward up along the lower Mississippi River valley through
Tuesday, with potential tropical development meanwhile over the
Bay of Campeche. The upper ridge over the eastern states is
deflected away from the forecast area, and a surface ridge
oriented mainly over the southeastern states promotes a moist
southeasterly flow over the forecast area. In general, increasing
amounts of deep layer moisture gradually work into the forecast
area through Tuesday, with precipitable water values of initially
near 1.5 inches increasing to 2.2-2.25 inches. Despite this trend,
drier air associated with the upper ridge will be attempting to
flow into the area as well, and finally manages to become more
pronounced on Wednesday. Have opted for slight chance to chance
pops to return to the entire area on Sunday with chance to likely
pops following for Monday, mainly due to the sea breeze. Have gone
with predominately chance pops for Tuesday then slight chance to
chance pops are in store for Wednesday. /29
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&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 443 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

A light to occasionally moderate diurnal flow prevails through
Friday, with an offshore flow at night into the morning hours and
a mostly onshore flow in the afternoon and early evening hours. A
light to moderate southeasterly flow is established by Saturday
and strengthens on Sunday as low pressure develops in the
southwestern Gulf. Seas are also expected to increase as we head
into early next week. BB/03
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Mobile      94  72  97  73  96  75  92  75 /  10   0  10   0  10  10  40  30
Pensacola   94  76  95  76  94  78  91  77 /  10  10  10   0  10  10  40  40
Destin      91  77  93  78  92  80  91  79 /  30  10  10   0  10  10  40  40
Evergreen   96  70  98  71  99  72  96  73 /  10  10  10   0  10   0  30  20
Waynesboro  94  67  97  70  99  72  95  73 /   0   0   0   0  10   0  20  10
Camden      93  68  96  70  99  73  97  73 /   0   0   0   0  10   0  20  10
Crestview   96  71  99  71  99  73  96  73 /  30  10  10   0  10  10  30  20
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&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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