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613
FXUS64 KMOB 270925 CCA
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
424 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Now through Friday night)
Issued at 424 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Helene continues to accelerate northward over Georgia early this
morning while a large upper level low continues to slowly pivot
across the Mid-Mississippi Valley region. A much drier airmass has
advected into our forecast area with GOES TPW imagery showing
precipitable water values generally ranging between 0.75 and 1.0
inches over the majority of the CWA as of 4 AM CDT. Temperatures
have fallen into the mid to upper 60s over much of the area early
this morning, with dewpoints also much more pleasant in the upper
50s to mid 60s. Short range models are in good agreement with
keeping the dry airmass intact across our region today and expect
mostly sunny and dry weather conditions to prevail. Boundary layer
moisture may increase somewhat along and northwest of the I-65
corridor tonight, but we should only see an associated uptick in
cloud cover over interior areas. Rain chances should remain
relegated to the north of our region in closer proximity to the
upper low over northern MS/AL and the Tennessee Valley. Highs
today are forecast to range between 80-85 degrees. Lows tonight
should range in the lower to mid 60s over inland communities and
in the upper 60s to mid 70s along the immediate coast and beaches.

Coastal Hazards...Significant long period swell packets generated
by Helene will continue to impact our beaches through this
morning. Large breaking waves of 6-9 feet will persist this
morning before decreasing to 4-6 feet by this afternoon. A High
Surf Warning remains in effect until 1 PM this afternoon and will
likely need to be replaced with a High Surf Advisory this
afternoon before surf gradually falls below 5 feet by early this
evening. Tide gauges along portions of Mobile Bay, Dauphin Island,
and are increasing to near flood stage as swells persist and we
approach high tide early this morning. We will maintain the
Coastal Flood Advisory along the Alabama/western Florida panhandle
coastal interface through 11 AM this morning, where a few
instances of minor flooding and wave runup will occur. The High
rip current risk will persist today and tonight along the Alabama
beaches, and from today into Saturday afternoon along the Florida
panhandle beaches. /21
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 424 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

The forecast area will be under the influence of an upper trough,
extending from its closed low over the TN/OH Valleys. This trough
will maintain its hold on the weather pattern through the weekend,
before it begins to pivot to the east at the start of the new work
week. At the surface, a cold front will extend from its parent low
over the Ohio Valley, southwestward and into the lower Mississippi
Valley. Despite the influence of the trough, and southwest flow
through the vertical column, moisture will be limited and a lack of
forcing will keep dry conditions in place through at least the
weekend. Temperatures over the weekend will be slightly above
seasonal norms, as mostly sunny skies and southwest flow allow highs
to climb into the mid to upper 80s both Saturday and Sunday.
Overnight lows will be a bit more mild, with radiational cooling
each night allowing temps to fall into the 60s.

The aforementioned upper low will open as the trough begins to make
its eastward push at the beginning of the new work week. The axis of
the trough will swing through the area during the Monday
night/Tuesday morning timeframe, with the cold front drifting south
of our area. With the lower moisture in place, not expecting any
precip with the front, and the only real change to the sensible
weather pattern will be a shift to northerly surface winds. High
pressure and upper ridging will build eastward and into the area by
the latter part of next week, keeping dry conditions in place
through the remainder of the period. Temperatures will be near
seasonal norms, with highs warming into the lower to mid 80s each
afternoon and overnight lows falling into the 60s. /73

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 424 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Helene continues inland across Georgia early this morning. The
Tropical Storm Warning has been replaced with a Small Craft Advisory
for the remainder of the marine waters through this evening.
Moderate to strong westerly winds persist through this evening
before relaxing into the weekend. Seas will steadily subside through
the day today into tonight. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      84  66  87  65  89  67  88  68 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   84  71  87  73  87  73  87  72 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      84  74  86  75  87  74  87  73 /   0   0   0   0   0   0  10  10
Evergreen   84  64  88  62  89  65  89  66 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  82  63  86  62  87  63  87  65 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Camden      81  64  85  62  86  63  86  65 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Crestview   84  64  88  66  89  67  89  67 /   0   0   0   0  10   0  10   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for
     ALZ263>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for FLZ202-
     204-206.

     High Surf Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ630>636-
     650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

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