-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
794
FXUS64 KMOB 202310
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
609 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
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(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

MVFR conditions are possible with some convection affecting mostly the
coastal counties through the early evening hours, but otherwise
VFR conditions are expected through Friday. A light northeasterly
flow prevails tonight, which increases to near 10 knots on Friday
along with a switch to a southeasterly direction near the coast in
the afternoon. /29
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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... 
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/issued 401 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

An upper level ridge of high pressure continues to retrograde
westward across the Tennessee and Mid-Mississippi Valley region this
afternoon. Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms have
developed across portions of the western FL panhandle and far
southwest AL this afternoon along a plume of moisture also advecting
westward along the southern periphery of the ridge. We have left a
slight chance to chance POPs in the forecast late this afternoon
into early this evening, mainly across the southern part of the
forecast area before convection diminishes after sunset. Isolated to
scattered showers or storms should become focused over the offshore
waters late tonight. Low temperatures are forecast to range in the
upper 60s to lower 70s over inland locations and generally in the
mid to upper 70s along the immediate coast.

The upper level ridge of high pressure is expected to build further
south and west on Friday and this feature will generally encompass
the majority of our forecast area through Friday afternoon. Deep
layer subsidence underneath this feature will support keeping the
forecast dry across our region Friday. Temperatures will trend
hotter, with highs ranging in the lower to mid 90s across the
region. Surface dewpoints should mix out into the 60s over most
areas Friday afternoon so maximum heat index values should only top
out between 95-100 degrees.

Coastal hazards: Surf should gradually subside below 5 feet along
area beaches by early this evening. We tentatively plan to allow the
High Surf Advisory to expire on schedule at 6 PM. A HIGH rip current
risk will still continue through Friday night given persistent
swell. /21

SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Upper level high pressure centered over the Southeast/Tennessee River
Valley shifts west as a mean upper trough develops off/over the East
Coast through the period. A weakening surface trough moves northwest
over the weekend, bringing Gulf/tropical Atlantic moisture inland
over the Southeast. Guidance varies on how fast and far the moisture
works in, along with some advertising moister bands working inland
Sunday. Have went with a blended approach, with precipitable h20
values rising into the 1.7"-2.0" mainly southeast of I-65 Saturday
and area wide on Sunday. Have kept PoPs southeast of I-65 Saturday,
transitioning a bit further north Sunday as the better moisture
covers more of the forecast area. A seabreeze off the Gulf is
indicated to be the initiator. With winds 5k` and above being
northwest to northerly, these storms once initiated are not expected
to move inland.

Subsidence from the upper ridge will keep temperatures above
seasonal norms, with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s over
most of the forecast area Saturday and Sunday. The increasing
moisture levels will combine with the subsidence to bring heat
indices rising into the 98-103 degree range Saturday and 100-106 on
Sunday. Low temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s Friday night
rise into the low to mid 70s by Sunday night.
/16

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

The upper trough off the East Coast shifts west over the eastern
Conus, helping to direct shortwave energy over the Southeast.
Combined with onshore flow returning to the Southeast increasing
moisture levels over 2" over the region, scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast area mid week.
Temperatures fall to near seasonal levels by the end of the week due
to the loss of upper subsidence and increased rain cooling. Heat
indices continue to rise into the 102 to 107 degree range Monday and
105 to 110 degree range Tuesday. A Heat Advisory will likely be
needed early in the week if this trend continues.
/16

MARINE...
Issued at 359 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

The Small Craft Advisory has been allowed to expire as easterly
winds continue to diminish and seas slowly subside. Will leave
exercise caution headlines in place well offshore this evening as
winds remain sustained between 15-20 knots and seas remain elevated
around 6 feet. Winds return to a more southerly to southwesterly
flow over the weekend into early next week. /21
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      72  94  71  94  74  94  76  95 /  20   0   0  20   0  20  10  40
Pensacola   75  92  75  92  77  92  79  94 /  20   0  10  30  10  30  20  50
Destin      76  92  78  91  80  90  80  92 /  20   0  20  20  10  30  20  40
Evergreen   68  93  69  95  72  96  74  96 /  10   0   0  20  10  30  10  50
Waynesboro  70  95  68  97  72  98  74  98 /   0   0   0  10   0  10  10  40
Camden      67  92  68  94  72  96  74  96 /   0   0   0  10   0  20  10  40
Crestview   68  94  70  95  72  96  74  97 /  10   0  10  30  10  40  10  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
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&&

$$

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