-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
094
FXUS64 KMOB 091048
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
548 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Light and
variable winds this morning will increase to around 5 to 10 knots
out of the southwest by the afternoon hours. Winds subside once again
by the evening and overnight hours. /96
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... 
-- Changed Discussion --
/issued 432 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Upper-level ridging, currently located over the
Louisiana/Mississippi Gulf Coast, will gradually shift
southeastward throughout the period as an upper-level longwave
trough over the Great Lakes digs southward. An embedded shortwave
trough will quickly rotate around this longwave on Monday, with
its axis passing over the local area during the late
afternoon/evening hours. This shortwave will help to push a weak
frontal boundary into the region on Monday which will likely reach
the coast or move just offshore by the evening hours.

For today, with the ridge remaining firmly in place, expect hot and
dry conditions to continue through the afternoon hours. Highs will
top out in the low 90s along the coast to the mid to upper 90s for
inland areas. With dew points ranging from the mid 60s to the lower
70s, heat indices will rise into the 98-105 degree range areawide
(remaining a few degrees below Heat Advisory criteria). By the
evening, as the ridge begins to retreat to the southeast, a few
isolated showers and storms cannot be ruled out over our far
interior counties as storms initially develop over northern and
central MS/AL and spread southward via outflow boundary collisions.
With the loss of daytime heating, any lingering convection that does
make it into our CWA will likely be short-lived and rather weak.
Lows tonight will be in the low 70s, with mid to upper 70s along the
coast.

On Monday, the aforementioned frontal boundary will begin sliding
into the region during the morning hours. Not expecting any rainfall
as it enters the region due to the lack of forcing and residual
subsident effects still in place from the retreating ridge.
Favorable differential divergence arrives by the afternoon as the
upper shortwave approaches and passes overhead, and the surface
boundary begins interacting with the northward propagating seabreeze
boundary. This, along with ample moisture and a highly unstable
environment (SBCAPE values over 3500 J/kg in spots), will allow for
scattered thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon. With deep-
layer shear remaining rather weak (generally around or less than 20
knots), expecting pulse-type storms to initially develop along the
frontal boundary and/or sea breeze boundary and spread across the
area via outflow boundary collisions. Strong instability, steep low-
level lapse rates, and a dry layer aloft (giving way to DCAPEs well
over 1200 J/kg) could lead to a few strong to severe storms, capable
of producing gusty to damaging downburst winds. Due to this
potential, much of the local area has been outlooked in a marginal
risk of severe storms for Monday. Otherwise, highs will reach the
low to mid 90s, with heat indices once again approaching the 105
degree mark in some areas. A Low Risk of rip currents continues
through the near term period. /96

SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

A weak cold front stalls just south of the northern Gulf coast in
response to a lobe of shortwave energy swinging around the base of
the base of an upper low centered over New England moving off. Any
rain associated with the front shifts south of the coast Monday
evening, with a dry and cooler airmass moving over land portions of
the forecast area. The diurnal temperature range opens a bit with
the drier airmass, with low temperatures Monday night in the mid 60s
north of Highway 84 to low 70s south of I-10 to the coast dropping a
few degrees for Tuesday night, all below seasonal norms. High
temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s are expected Tuesday, a bit
above seasonal norms.

A low risk of rip currents is expected early in the coming week, but
as an onshore flow becomes more organized the middle of the coming
week, the risk of dangerous rip currents rises to high by Thursday
/16

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

An upper level shortwave trough moves over the Southeast in the
latter half of the week. A surface low/circulation organizes over
the central Gulf, then moves north towards the north-
central/northeast Gulf coast the latter half of the work week into
the weekend. Gulf moisture moves inland over the Southeast, mainly
east of the forecast area. Rain returns to the forecast area by
Thursday, with the highest PoPs southeast of I-65 and over the
northern Gulf. Upper level high pressure moves over the Southeast
the end of the week as the upper trough over the Southeast meanders
slowly southeast over the Southeast/eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Increasing upper subsidence from the advancing upper ridge will
bring temperatures rising to above seasonal norms. With a moist
airmass in place by the end of the work week, heat indices rise to
around 100F by the weekend over most of the forecast area.
/16

MARINE...
Issued at 429 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

A light to moderate westerly to southwesterly flow will
persist through Monday, with northerly flow expected for Tuesday as
a front pushes through. A weak system will begin to develop by mid
week, with moderate easterly flow expected for the latter half of
the week. Seas are also expected to increase by late week. /96
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      94  73  92  69  91  68  91  70 /   0   0  50  20  10  10  20  20
Pensacola   92  76  91  72  90  71  90  73 /   0  10  50  40  20  10  30  20
Destin      89  78  89  73  89  74  90  76 /   0  10  40  40  20  10  30  20
Evergreen   96  72  93  65  89  63  93  68 /   0  10  40  20  10   0  10  10
Waynesboro  96  72  91  65  88  64  91  67 /  10  20  30  10  10   0  10  10
Camden      95  72  89  65  87  64  90  68 /  10  20  20  10  10   0  10  10
Crestview   96  71  95  67  91  64  93  69 /   0   0  50  20  10  10  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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