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284
FXUS64 KMOB 091944
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
244 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
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(Now through Monday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

An upper level trough will dig southward across the eastern
states through Monday. This shortwave will help to push a weak
frontal boundary into the region on Monday which will likely reach
the coast or move just offshore by the evening hours. As this
front moves into the area tomorrow morning an isolated shower or
storm is possible, however it will likely take until the afternoon
as temps warm and the atmosphere becomes more unstable for
scattered showers and storms to develop. Highs will warm into the
upper 80s and low 90s ahead of the approaching front during the
afternoon. The hot temps combined with dewpoints in the upper 60s
and low 70s will lead to CAPE values around 3000 J/Kg. The strong
instability combined with an approaching boundary will lead to
scattered showers and storms developing during the afternoon and
spreading south ahead of the boundary. SPC has outlooked much of
the area in marginal risk for the possibility of damaging wind
gusts in the stronger storms. Heat index values will again reach
the 100 to 105 degree mark in some areas. A low risk of rip
currents continues through the near term. /13
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Showers and storms will be ongoing as we roll into Monday evening as
the cold front continues to slide toward the Gulf. Highest POPs
Monday night into the overnight hours will be across the coastal
counties before the rain slides further south. In the wake of the
front, the local area (land portions) briefly dries out once again
through mid-week, but POPs remain over the coastal waters as the
front drifts across the northern Gulf. Expect a dry airmass to
settle overhead through at least Wednesday with northerly surface
winds ushering in PWATs below an inch as the a surface high builds
the eastern portion of the CONUS.

The latter part of the week and this upcoming weekend features a
rather complex set-up with a larger amount of uncertainty than
usual. A shortwave pivots toward the region on Wednesday and
broadens out as it dips toward the Gulf on Thursday. This elongated
feature (draped from the FL peninsula down toward the southwestern
Gulf) will hover over the Gulf through next weekend as a ridge
builds to our north. This upper level feature may begin to
retrograde westward across the northern Gulf toward the end of the
weekend. Meanwhile, down at the surface, a trough may develop
somewhere over the Gulf at some point Wednesday through Sunday, but
specifics remain tricky in this pattern given the uncertainty
surrounding the activity in the CAG - Central American Gyre.
Regardless, we eventually transition toward a wetter pattern, it`s
just a matter of when the moisture. Trends in recent guidance
indicates that the slug of moisture may not slingshot into our area
until late in the weekend with just typical afternoon sea breeze
convection Friday and Saturday. Again, it is worth noting that we
have low confidence in the timing of the heavy rain associated with
the features over the Gulf.

The heat is ON as we roll deeper into the week and weekend with
highs soaring into the mid to low 90s area-wide. Heat indices start
creeping back up above 100 Friday as the moisture begins to
increase. Next Saturday and Sunday have the potential to be very
toasty with heat indices climbing to 100-106 area-wide.

Beach Note: The risk of rip currents is LOW through Tuesday night.
Expect to see a bump to a MODERATE risk by mid-week and eventually a
HIGH risk as early as Thursday. It is worth noting that recent RCMOS
probabilities slow down the progression of the increased risk of rip
currents, but we will re-assess the trends in the guidance again
tonight. The risk may fluctuate late in the week until the guidance
gets a better handle on the surface features in the Gulf late this
week and into the weekend. 07/mb
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&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

A light to moderate westerly to southwesterly flow will persist
through Monday, with northerly flow expected for Tuesday as a
front pushes through. A weak system will begin to develop by mid
week, with moderate easterly flow expected for the latter half of
the week. Seas are also expected to increase by late week. /96
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Mobile      74  92  71  90  69  92  70  93 /   0  40  30  10  10  10  10  20
Pensacola   76  92  73  90  72  91  73  91 /   0  40  50  20  10  10  10  40
Destin      78  89  75  89  74  90  76  90 /   0  40  60  20  10  20  20  40
Evergreen   71  92  66  89  64  92  65  95 /  10  40  20   0   0  10  10  20
Waynesboro  71  90  66  88  64  90  65  93 /  20  40  10   0   0  10   0  10
Camden      71  89  65  86  64  89  66  93 /  20  40  10   0   0   0   0  20
Crestview   71  94  68  92  66  95  68  95 /   0  40  30  10  10  20  10  40
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&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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