-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
707
FXUS64 KMOB 082342
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
642 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

VFR conditions are forecast to remain prevalent across the
forecast area through the next 24 hours. The exception could be
with the development of patchy fog across portions of southeast
MS, southwest AL, and the interior western FL panhandle mainly
north of the I-10 corridor late tonight through early Sunday
morning (generally between the 08-13Z time frame). Fog potential
remains too low to include in the KMOB/KBFM/KJKA/KPNS TAF. Winds
become calm to light/variable early this evening through late
tonight. A light westerly wind develops across the region Sunday
morning before turning southerly to southwesterly 5-10 knots over
the southern part of our area Sunday afternoon in association
with a developing seabreeze. /21
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... 
-- Changed Discussion --
/issued 343 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Upper ridging will continue across the area through Sunday with
sfc high pressure just south of the coast. This will keep dry
conditions in place through the weekend, as high pressure maintains
its hold on the sensible weather pattern. Despite weak northerly
flow, temperatures on Sunday will warm even more as highs climb
into the mid to upper 90s. Heat indices will rise into the triple
digits Sunday afternoon, but should stay below Heat Advisory
criteria (heat index >= 108 degrees). Overnight lows will be on
the more mild side, with temps falling into the upper 60s to lower
70s. /13

SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

An upper trough will deepen over the eastern states through
Tuesday. This will send a weak frontal boundary southward toward
the coast on Monday. The boundary along with increasing moisture
will bring increased rain chances by Monday afternoon with
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area. The upper
trough moves east of Tuesday with the weak boundary lingering
near the coast. A drier airmass will move into the northern two-
thirds of the area, limiting rain chances to mainly near the
coast. HIgh temps will continue to be in the upper 80s and low
90s. Heat index values will be 100-105 across much of the area on
Monday before lower humidity on Tuesday results in lower heat
index values. /13

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

The pattern becomes a bit messy for the middle of next week, as a
southern stream trough/low moves into the ArkLaTex region. The
trough will slide southward through the day on Wednesday, with the
forecast area remaining on the eastern periphery of the trough.
This will shift flow aloft to more southerly, bringing an influx
of low to mid level moisture across the area. As the closed upper
low drifts southward over the Gulf of Mexico, surface cyclogenesis
will occur, with the surface low moving to the northeast through
the end of the week. This low will impact portions of the eastern
Gulf Coast region during the latter part of the upcoming work
week, though confidence on where this low moves is not very high.
Regardless, expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms during the
afternoon hours, becoming more numerous over our southern zones by
the end of the week. 73/13

MARINE...
Issued at 343 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

A light southerly to southwesterly flow will persist through today
and much of the day Sunday. Flow becomes more westerly on Monday,
with northerly flow expected for Tuesday. A weak system will
begin to take shape by mid week, with light to moderate easterly
flow expected for the latter half of the week . /13
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      71  93  74  93  71  91  70  90 /   0   0   0  40  20  20  20  40
Pensacola   73  92  76  92  74  90  73  88 /   0   0  10  50  40  30  30  60
Destin      76  89  78  90  75  89  76  87 /   0   0  10  40  40  30  30  60
Evergreen   66  96  71  92  67  90  65  92 /   0  10  10  40  20  20  10  50
Waynesboro  68  96  71  91  66  90  66  91 /   0  10  10  30  10  20  10  40
Camden      67  95  71  89  66  88  66  90 /   0  10  10  30  10  10  10  40
Crestview   66  96  71  94  68  92  67  92 /   0   0   0  50  20  30  10  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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