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231
FXUS64 KMOB 061247
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
747 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New UPDATE and AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 747 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed early this
morning over our interior southeast MS counties, parts of
southwest AL and also portions of the western FL panhandle. As we
mentioned in the early morning discussion, the HRRR seems to have
a pretty good handle on the convection, and suggests that the
convection will probably get a little more widespread as it moves
slowly east across most of that same area this morning in
association with a passing shortwave trough aloft. A few stronger
storms could produce some gusty winds, but the main threat (if
any) will be locally heavy rainfall and potentially some minor
flooding due to the locally heavy rains. The convection is only
inching along to the east very slowly, so some locally excessive
rainfall totals could be possible. WPC has our area outlooked with
a MARGINAL risk of flooding due to heavy rainfall over most of our
area. Rainfall rates have been as much as 1 inch per hour just to
the west of our forecast area this morning over south central MS,
and similar rates over our area could be possible today. So far we
have not had enough rainfall for any flooding concerns over our
area, but we will be monitoring for that likelihood through the
morning. Otherwise the forecast remains on track. DS/12

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 747 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Showers and thunderstorms this morning producing localized MVFR
ceilings this morning, and a few instances of IFR ceilings could
be possible near heavier showers and storms. Outside of rain
areas, general VFR conditions will prevail. Light, mainly south to
southwest winds are expected today, becoming more northerly
tonight. DS/12
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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... 
-- Changed Discussion --
/issued 418 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Remnant MCV noted on IR satellite imagery this morning over interior
southwest MS, drifting down to the southeast toward coastal MS. This
feature, interacting with an upper level shortwave through that will
be dropping southeast across the region, will likely help initiate
another round of convection today, beginning during the predawn
hours over parts of southern MS and southwest AL, and then becoming
more numerous over coastal southwest AL, interior south central AL
(along and east of I-65) and the western FL panhandle shortly after
daybreak this morning. Most of the CAM`s indicate this general
trend, with the latest runs of the HRRR particularly seeming to
initialize very well with current radar trends (with the isolated
convection currently developing up around the northwestern portions
of our forecast area (Choctaw county). The shortwave trough weakens
and moves east of our area by late this afternoon, so highest POPs
will likely be through the morning hours and into the early
afternoon, and then decreasing late in the day. Slightly drier deep
layer airmass moves into region for tonight on the backside of the
upper trough, with any lingering POPs (only about a 20 percent
chance), being near the coast overnight. On Friday, a late season
cold front is expected to drop south across our area continues to
inch through the area on Friday, with PWAT`s dropping below 1 inch
across much of interior southeast MS and southwest AL. This front
may even drop south of the coast by the end of the day. Look for a
small chance for isolated showers and storms (POPs less than 20
percent) along immediate coastal areas Friday afternoon as the front
sags south and when peak heating is maximized, but otherwise most
areas should remain dry as high pressure builds across the region
just to the north of the front. As far as temperatures go, look for
highs today to be in the mid to upper 80s across the entire area,
with lows tonight mainly in the upper 60s for interior locations and
low to mid 70s closer to and along the coast. Even with the "cold"
front moving through on Friday, the increasingly dry airmass and
subsidence associated with the building high pressure will result in
a hot day, with highs climbing into the lower 90s for most areas
(perhaps even a few isolated spots seeing mid 90s), except for some
locations along the immediate coast, where the afternoon sea breeze
will keep temperatures in the upper 80s. There will be a MODERATE
rip current today, LOW tonight and Friday. DS/12

SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

An upper level trough over eastern portions of the Southeast moves
off and an upper level ridge moves east over the Lower Mississippi
River. A dry cool front moves south of the forecast area Friday
night, ushering in mainly a drier airmass for the beginning of the
weekend. Increasing upper subsidence from the advancing upper ridge
will bring temperatures rising above seasonal norms for Saturday,
with high temperatures ranging from around 90 to the low 90s. Heat
indices are not expected to rise significantly above the ambient air
temperatures with the decrease in moisture levels for Saturday.
Clearing Friday night will allow temperatures to drop to below
seasonal norms. Mainly 60s are expected over the forecast area, with
around 70 along the coast. Saturday sees an uptick in low temperatures
with the increased subsidence, rising into the mid to upper 60s with
around 70 to low 70s south of I-10.

A decreasing tidal cycle and relatively light winds offshore will
keep the rip current risk a low levels through the weekend into the
coming week.
/16

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Guidance is advertising a shortwave trough passing north of the
forecast area Sunday into Monday. A front moves south across the
Southeast in response, shifting moisture that has pooled along the
front over the weekend south to the northern Gulf coast and northern
Gulf as it stalls near the coast. The moisture increase along with a
deeper trough digging over the eastern conus will bring a chance of
showers and thunderstorms Monday forecast area wide, shifts closer
to the coast into Tuesday. Guidance is advertising another upper
trough moving southeast over the eastern Conus, shifting the upper
ridge back west. Any drier air moving over the forecast area shifts
quickly north as southerly low level flow returns by mid week.
Temperatures cool a bit to near seasonal norms as the upper ridge
shifts back west.
/16

MARINE...
Issued at 410 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

No significant impacts are expected through the period except for
higher winds and seas near any thunderstorms that develop. Best
chances for storms over the marine area will be today and tonight,
with few storms over the weekend before increasing in coverage once
again early next week. A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow
today becomes more westerly tonight and west to northwest for Friday
and Friday night. A somewhat variable light to moderate flow is then
expected over the weekend and into the early part of next week.
DS/12
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      86  71  93  67  91  69  93  72 /  70  10  10   0   0   0  10  10
Pensacola   85  73  92  71  91  72  92  75 /  80  20  20   0   0   0  10  10
Destin      85  75  89  73  89  74  90  77 /  80  30  10  10   0   0  10  10
Evergreen   87  69  92  63  91  66  94  69 /  70  10  10   0   0   0  10  20
Waynesboro  88  68  92  63  91  67  93  69 /  50   0   0   0   0   0  10  20
Camden      88  68  89  61  89  65  92  69 /  60   0   0   0   0   0  20  20
Crestview   88  69  94  65  92  66  96  70 /  80  10  10   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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